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117th Congress: DEMS IN DISARRAY!!!111!!

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  • dxmnkd316
    replied
    Originally posted by Kepler View Post

    No. Just no. You are wrong on the math. Nate said "there's a 15% chance," and that chance occurred. That is how math works. I'm sorry it doesn't fit your narrative.
    In fact, I distinctly remember Nate in like September and October 2016 saying he really wanted to caution against the models saying 100%. Even his own model he was seriously warning that it was starting to show weakness towards November.

    Leave a comment:


  • Kepler
    replied
    Originally posted by Handyman View Post
    It wasn't the pundits interpreting it that was the problem, it was Nate Silver and his ilk trying to be pundits that did it.
    No. Just no. You are wrong on the math. Nate said "there's a 15% chance," and that chance occurred. That is how math works. I'm sorry it doesn't fit your narrative.

    Leave a comment:


  • Spartanforlife4
    replied
    Originally posted by Jimjamesak View Post
    Saw some polling for the Alaska special election next week. There's three candidates (one of the finalists dropped out): Republicans Nick Begich and Sarah Palin and Democrat Mary Peltola.

    Both polls had Peltola actually leading in the first round with Begich second and Palin third but Palin and Begich were within 1-2% of each other (41-30-29 in the first, 40-31-29 in the second).

    The interesting bit is the ranked choice, Begich is beating Peltola in both if Palin is eliminated but Peltola is beating Palin if Begich is eliminated.

    Pretty much confirms my "depends on who gets eliminated first" thoughts.
    A Begich is a Republican in Alaska? That's like reading about a Republican Kennedy in MA.

    Leave a comment:


  • Handyman
    replied
    Originally posted by Kepler View Post

    538 was fine, the interpretation of it by the pundits was what sucked.

    Math is funny. It works.
    It wasn't the pundits interpreting it that was the problem, it was Nate Silver and his ilk trying to be pundits that did it. The man got up his own butt and he hasn't stopped based on his COVID takes. YMMV.

    I like what 538 does in general, but they are not the end all be all and there have been quite a few similar stats groups or math nerds that have shown the flaws in their methodology going back a while. It is all well over my head when it comes to the math but sometimes it is fun to watch a good old fashioned nerd fight!

    Leave a comment:


  • Kepler
    replied
    Originally posted by Handyman View Post

    So bet on the House and against the Senate because 538 fucking sucks.

    (I am partially joking but only about the first part)
    538 was fine, the interpretation of it by the pundits was what sucked.

    Math is funny. It works.

    Leave a comment:


  • Handyman
    replied
    Originally posted by Kepler View Post
    538 now predicts Dems will save the Senate. Still about 4:1 to lose the House.
    So bet on the House and against the Senate because 538 fucking sucks.

    (I am partially joking but only about the first part)

    Leave a comment:


  • Handyman
    replied
    Originally posted by Drew S. View Post

    I don’t understand how you can be for one and against the other. You’re either pro rights or you’re not.
    Not all rights are created equal.

    When people can act responsibly with guns we can change the laws. When gun companies start acting with even a modicum of empathy and respect for human life we can re-open the discussion. Until then take your guns and shove them.

    Leave a comment:


  • Jimjamesak
    replied
    Originally posted by Kepler View Post
    538 now predicts Dems will save the Senate. Still about 4:1 to lose the House.
    Saw some polling for the Alaska special election next week. There's three candidates (one of the finalists dropped out): Republicans Nick Begich and Sarah Palin and Democrat Mary Peltola.

    Both polls had Peltola actually leading in the first round with Begich second and Palin third but Palin and Begich were within 1-2% of each other (41-30-29 in the first, 40-31-29 in the second).

    The interesting bit is the ranked choice, Begich is beating Peltola in both if Palin is eliminated but Peltola is beating Palin if Begich is eliminated.

    Pretty much confirms my "depends on who gets eliminated first" thoughts.

    Leave a comment:


  • MissThundercat
    replied
    Originally posted by Kepler View Post
    538 now predicts Dems will save the Senate. Still about 4:1 to lose the House.
    I haven't had booze in 27 months, so I will take that with a large coffee and 27 shots of espresso.

    As noted before, I will be voting Dem in the same way I support needle exchange programs.

    Leave a comment:


  • SonofSouthie
    replied
    Originally posted by Drew S. View Post

    Who doesn’t want to lose rights?
    I used to just look at your drivel, smh and skate on by. You're on full on block now cuz.

    Leave a comment:


  • Kepler
    replied
    538 now predicts Dems will save the Senate. Still about 4:1 to lose the House.

    Leave a comment:


  • MissThundercat
    replied
    Originally posted by Deutsche Gopher Fan View Post

    He’s an ignorant POS. Feel bad for his family and don’t interact
    Ignorant POS heard "we don't need no education" and went "fuck yeah!"

    Leave a comment:


  • Deutsche Gopher Fan
    replied
    Originally posted by ScoobyDoo View Post
    jfc
    He’s an ignorant POS. Feel bad for his family and don’t interact

    Leave a comment:


  • ScoobyDoo
    replied
    jfc

    Leave a comment:


  • Drew S.
    replied
    Originally posted by jericho View Post

    Women
    I don’t understand how you can be for one and against the other. You’re either pro rights or you’re not.

    Leave a comment:

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