116th Congress: F-cker WAS Impeached. Still not enough.

[Handyman]

That seems to be the smart bet. Tough to tell though because of the mail in ballots. Loeffler is more hated by the Trumpers so she is definitely more vulnerable but she could still win too which would defy all logic.

[Handyman]

If Lauren Boebert is so concerned about protecting her family, then being married to a guy who got arrested for exposing himself to a child probably doesn't help.

It probably isnt a good idea to tell Capitol Police you plan to commit a crime even after they warn you.

[Kepler]

Prediction for today.

What I want: both Warnock AND Ossoff.

What I think will actually happen: Warnock by a thin margin, but Perdue holds on by a slim margin.

We have no way of predicting at all.

538 has both Dems winning, but they acknowledge that (1) many pollsters are sitting it out and (2) there is no good reason for assuming turnout will be within the parameters of normal voting activity.

They could both win by 10 or lose by 10. We just don't know.

Those of you who are deists: sacrifice a goat or a daughter or something. A split is as bad as being swept; we are 1 GB with a final day doubleheader. We need both!

[Kepler]

I love that the guy who has effectively taken over day to day running of 538 is indistinguishable from Nate.

[psych]

We have no way of predicting at all.

538 has both Dems winning, but they acknowledge that (1) many pollsters are sitting it out and (2) there is no good reason for assuming turnout will be within the parameters of normal voting activity.

They could both win by 10 or lose by 10. We just don't know.

Those of you who are deists: sacrifice a goat or a daughter or something. A split is as bad as being swept; we are 1 GB with a final day doubleheader. We need both!

A split is definitely not as bad as being swept. Hell, we have a center-left poster here who provided us with moderate Susan Collins to help with those key reconciliation bills while keeping McConnell in charge! Susan Collins, who votes with Trump 66% of the time, despite being from a state where the majority of voters hate him. Sounds like somebody my center-right self would vote for, but only after Elizabeth Warren or Bernard Sanders.

Please, Georgia, defy history again.

[Kepler]

A split is definitely not as bad as being swept.

Well, let's say the rewards are:

sweep: 10 points
split: 1 point
swept: 0 points

I agree with you that 50-50 is no safe Democratic majority, but 49-51 is an unassailable Nazi majority.

[psych]

Well, let's say the rewards are:

sweep: 10 points
split: 1 point
swept: 0 points

Yes, a split would be like kissing your sister. Getting swept would be like going on a bender and waking up next to Eric Trump.

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Yes, a split would be like kissing your sister. Getting swept would be like going on a bender and waking up next to Eric Trump.

Is the thought process (putting aside that of course we always want the trifecta), we need a sweep now because in 2022 the Republicans are going to take back the House? The 2022 Senate map looks, at least initially, somewhat favorable. There are no (D) Senators up for reelection in states won by Trump, and there are at least two (R) Senators up for reelection in states won by Biden (Wisconsin and Pennsylvania). If Loeffler is successful tonight, that would push it to three.

[Kepler]

Yes, a split would be like kissing your sister. Getting swept would be like going on a bender and waking up next to Eric Trump.

Not really. Swept would like waking up next to Eric. A split would be like waking up next to Ivanka. A sweep would like waking up next to Kate Upton every day forever f-ck you Verlander.

[psych]

Is the thought process (putting aside that of course we always want the trifecta), we need a sweep now because in 2022 the Republicans are going to take back the House? The 2022 Senate map looks, at least initially, somewhat favorable. There are no (D) Senators up for reelection in states won by Trump, and there are at least two (R) Senators up for reelection in states won by Biden (Wisconsin and Pennsylvania). If Loeffler is successful tonight, that would push it to three.

First and foremost, trifecta. McConnell in power now means everything gets watered down or doesn’t get passed at all. I’ll take Joe Manchin over Susan Collins any day.
For the future, yes, I was initially skeptical of the 2022 Senate map, but as you and others (mainly Handy that I can recall) have pointed out, it’s better than I initially took it for...but, as you also mentioned, it’s entirely possible the House returns to the GOP in 2022. That said, 2018 was great without Trump on the ballot, so maybe 2022 will be the same way. That said, history shows the Presidential party almost always loses seats in the midterms, so already only having a razor-thin margin, it doesn’t look good for Democrats. Win today, and we have two years to pass a couple of decent reconciliation-style bills overhauling a bunch of sh-t. Definitely not as strong as the hand we had after 2008, but the backlash to Biden hopefully won’t be as severe either.

[Kepler]

First and foremost, trifecta. McConnell in power now means everything gets watered down or doesn’t get passed at all. I’ll take Joe Manchin over Susan Collins any day.
For the future, yes, I was initially skeptical of the 2022 Senate map, but as you and others (mainly Handy that I can recall) have pointed out, it’s better than I initially took it for...but, as you also mentioned, it’s entirely possible the House returns to the GOP in 2022. That said, 2018 was great without Trump on the ballot, so maybe 2022 will be the same way. That said, history shows the Presidential party almost always loses seats in the midterms, so already only having a razor-thin margin, it doesn’t look good for Democrats. Win today, and we have two years to pass a couple of decent reconciliation-style bills overhauling a bunch of sh-t. Definitely not as strong as the hand we had after 2008, but the backlash to Biden hopefully won’t be as severe either.

It won't even be Reconciliation anymore. If we win both we'll just pass things, period. Majority rule. The end of McConnell's reign of terror.

The difference between 49 and 50 Dem seats is a difference of about 50 federal judgeships, not even counting SCOTUS.

We have to sweep.

[psych]

It won't even be Reconciliation anymore. If we win both we'll just pass things, period. Majority rule. The end of McConnell's reign of terror.

The difference between 49 and 50 Dem seats is a difference of about 50 federal judgeships, not even counting SCOTUS.

We have to sweep.

As much as I loved on him in my previous post, I don’t think Manchin is in favor of getting rid of the filibuster. Maybe they can entice him somehow? I won’t claim to know. I agree about the federal judgeships being important.

[Kepler]

As much as I loved on him in my previous post, I don’t think Manchin is in favor of getting rid of the filibuster. Maybe they can entice him somehow? I won’t claim to know. I agree about the federal judgeships being important.

My impression is Manchin will go along with ending the filibuster because it is a process change that his WV constituents won't be able to comprehend, but he won't go along with unpacking the Court because even a West Virginian can count to 9.

With Manchin everything is CYA. If you don't like his principles, well, he has others. So he will buckle to Chuck right up until that principled moment in which it becomes the least bit inconvenient or risky for him, at which point he will fold like a plastic chair. He has the bravery and integrity of a Republican, he just happens to be a Democrat.

[Fighting Sioux 23]

As much as I loved on him in my previous post, I don’t think Manchin is in favor of getting rid of the filibuster. Maybe they can entice him somehow? I won’t claim to know. I agree about the federal judgeships being important.

Agreed. I don't see the filibuster going at 50/50. Now, if a seat or two can be gained in the Senate in 2022, then perhaps...of course, as previously discussed, the House could be lost in 2022, which would likely eliminate any upside of eliminating the filibuster.

[BassAle]

It won't even be Reconciliation anymore. If we win both we'll just pass things, period. Majority rule. The end of McConnell's reign of terror.

The difference between 49 and 50 Dem seats is a difference of about 50 federal judgeships, not even counting SCOTUS.

We have to sweep.

the senate has a systemic bias towards small states, so the GOP has an advantage that I don't see going away any time soon as rural areas are becoming even more conservative. I'd be weary of any changes that weaken the power of the minority party, unless you find a way to merge the Dakotas and Wyoming and also add a few left-leaning states.