116th Congress: F-cker WAS Impeached. Still not enough.

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

I'm not saying she should run completely to the left, that would also be a mistake. What I am saying is she lacks a signature issue and the passion/courage to run with it. Running solely on "I'm not Rich Mitch, #FlipTheSenate" while copy-pasting the Buttigieg 2020 platform onto your website isn't interesting or effective.

[Kepler]

I'm not saying she should run completely to the left, that would also be a mistake. What I am saying is she lacks a signature issue and the passion/courage to run with it. Running solely on "I'm not Rich Mitch, #FlipTheSenate" while copy-pasting the Buttigieg 2020 platform onto your website isn't interesting or effective.

That could be the way to max out your votes if you are running as an alternative in a Let's Protest Mitch election, though.

It's not like KY is crying out for a Green New Deal or defunding the police. It's always going to be just this side of Belarus on human rights and education. So she may be okay running as a catcher's glove for people unhappy with the R's rather than stressing any given D policy which (except for health care) likely won't fly there.

I'm the bomb-throwing Leftist of the board and I can see running the most boring, white bread, passionless, idealess candidates in pure red areas, where every election is a referendum on the conservative and liberalism and progress will always be regarded as moral peril.

[Jimjamesak]

I understand what F2BG is saying, because when I compare the campaign in Kentucky to either statewide race here in Alaska there’s a huge difference as to how they’re being run and why they’re even in the polls.

Like F2BG said, you need to run on something that’ll cut through the noise. In Alaska we have Alyse Galvin running against Don Young on the economy and how Young can’t do anything to help because he’s lost his clout. Then we have Dr. Al Gross running against Dan Sullivan on health care, showing that he’s voted against allowing people to buy prescriptions from Canada and taken money from pharmaceutical companies.

Now, Galvin and Gross are fairly bland conservadem “Independents” too but they’ve found a message that works and are hammering it home. I don’t get any sense of that in Kentucky.

[psych]

Fair enough, F2B&G and JimjamesAK. There’s a reason McGrath was my second favorite choice out of two viable candidates in the primary. I would argue she’d still be behind even if she ran a race with a different message. In Alaska, the presidential race is within 7-10 points. In Kentucky, it’s 20 points. Gross had a poll where he was tied with Sullivan, but it was a partisan poll, which usually makes it around 5 points closer for the party sponsoring the poll. Looks like the average of the most recent polls is Sullivan is up by around 7 points, which is right in line with the Presidential race. Looks like Galvin is neck and neck with Young based on a couple polls, so maybe her message is resonating more. It’s too bad that they’re going to have to identify as “D” on the ballot now due to that court ruling. I hope that doesn’t affect the race too much.
Kepler- I’m liberal as hell too. You’re speaking about being pragmatic. You’re forced to be when you live in a red state. Amy McGrath’s ultra conservadem Joe Manchin type politics (at least on paper, since she hasn’t held office yet) >>>>>>> any Republican.

[Spartanforlife4]

I’m listening to a podcast about the disappearance of former Alaska congressman Nick Begich and LA congressman Hale Boggs.

I wonder what the political landscape in Alaska would be today if he didn’t die in the plane crash. Begich was a Democrat who was only nearing the end of his first term when he disappeared, but he had taken 55% of the vote and posthumously took 56% of the vote in the 1972 election.

The GOP won back the special election in 1973 with Don Young, who is still in Congress almost 48 years later at age 87.

[Jimjamesak]

Fair enough, F2B&G and JimjamesAK. There’s a reason McGrath was my second favorite choice out of two viable candidates in the primary. I would argue she’d still be behind even if she ran a race with a different message. In Alaska, the presidential race is within 7-10 points. In Kentucky, it’s 20 points. Gross had a poll where he was tied with Sullivan, but it was a partisan poll, which usually makes it around 5 points closer for the party sponsoring the poll. Looks like the average of the most recent polls is Sullivan is up by around 7 points, which is right in line with the Presidential race. Looks like Galvin is neck and neck with Young based on a couple polls, so maybe her message is resonating more. It’s too bad that they’re going to have to identify as “D” on the ballot now due to that court ruling. I hope that doesn’t affect the race too much.
Kepler- I’m liberal as hell too. You’re speaking about being pragmatic. You’re forced to be when you live in a red state. Amy McGrath’s ultra conservadem Joe Manchin type politics (at least on paper, since she hasn’t held office yet) >>>>>>> any Republican.

I would caution that polling and polling data in Alaska is usually pretty suspect and hard to deal with. I know even 538 has commented on that.

[ScoobyDoo]

Good to hear this morning that North Carolina, Arizona, and one other state I am fogetting are leaning Biden. Stick a fork in Trump if those flip.

[net presence]

Good to hear this morning that North Carolina, Arizona, and one other state I am fogetting are leaning Biden. Stick a fork in Trump if those flip.

Scooby....are you feeling OK?

[ScoobyDoo]

Scooby....are you feeling OK?

I'm exhausted and I want that ****er gone and in jail as soon as ****ing possible.

[Kepler]

Good to hear this morning that North Carolina, Arizona, and one other state I am fogetting are leaning Biden. Stick a fork in Trump if those flip.

FL maybe?

[Kepler]

538 Senate forecast has the Dems slightly favored to get to 50.

Here are their odds (not vote percentage) for each close state (CAPS is the incumbent party):

Dem flips:

.78 AZ Kelly-D > MCSALLY-N
.68 CO Hickenlooper-D > GARDNER-N
.62 NC Cunningham-D > TILLIS-N
.53 ME Gideons-D > COLLINS-N

Nazi flips:

.78 Tuberville-N > JONES-D

Close Nazi holds:

.59 IA ERNST-N > Greenfield-D

[Spartanforlife4]

538 Senate forecast has the Dems slightly favored to get to 50.

Here are their odds (not vote percentage) for each close state (CAPS is the incumbent party):

Dem flips:

.78 AZ Kelly-D > MCSALLY-N
.68 CO Hickenlooper-D > GARDNER-N
.62 NC Cunningham-D > TILLIS-N
.53 ME Gideons-D > COLLINS-N

Nazi flips:

.78 Tuberville-N > JONES-D

Close Nazi holds:

.59 IA ERNST-N > Greenfield-D

Gideons only at 53%? Hasn’t she been been increasing basically every time a poll comes out?

[BassAle]

Gideons only at 53%? Hasn’t she been been increasing basically every time a poll comes out?

no s. It's Gideon.

recent Quinnipiac head to head poll has Gideon up 12%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.../senate/maine/

A head to head poll is probably pretty accurate because we have ranked choice voting. There is a left-leaning independent that will pull in 6% or so, but she's telling her voters to rank Gideon second.

[Kepler]

Gideons only at 53%? Hasn’t she been been increasing basically every time a poll comes out?

They may also factor in historical trends and effects that will tighten it at the wire. I dunno. I trust them, they're good at this.

[French Rage]

538 Senate forecast has the Dems slightly favored to get to 50.

Here are their odds (not vote percentage) for each close state (CAPS is the incumbent party):

Dem flips:

.78 AZ Kelly-D > MCSALLY-N
.68 CO Hickenlooper-D > GARDNER-N
.62 NC Cunningham-D > TILLIS-N
.53 ME Gideons-D > COLLINS-N

Nazi flips:

.78 Tuberville-N > JONES-D

Close Nazi holds:

.59 IA ERNST-N > Greenfield-D

Granted I would prefer 51 over 50, but it seems like winning 51 and having the VP probably move somewhat in tandem right? I guess having the VP is probably a little more likely (but nothing it definite so this isn't woofing) than winning IA, which seems to be the most toss-upy.