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116th Congress: F-cker WAS Impeached. Still not enough.

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  • Originally posted by French Rage View Post

    Granted I would prefer 51 over 50, but it seems like winning 51 and having the VP probably move somewhat in tandem right?
    I would think so. I think of it as every election as a composite of three vectors:

    + The Presidential vector, same for ever election this year
    + The Seat's vector, same for every election of that seat for every year (within some interval)
    + The Candidates' local vector, particular to that one-time matchup.

    So in ME for example you have the Presidential vector of D+6, that Seat vector which is maybe R+3, and then the Collins-Gideon vector which is unknown. Assuming the Candidates' vector is less R than R+3, Gideon should win. But we won't know until we know, Mr. President.

    But as the national vector moves, all composite election vectors move in tandem.

    So to extend the analogy there are "cliffs" in the Senate prediction that map to the Presidential vector. If Biden wins by 8 we could get 50 Senate seats, by 9 we get 51, but by 10 maybe we get 53 and by 11 maybe 56. The latter varies directly but not linearly with the former.
    Last edited by Kepler; 09-18-2020, 03:09 PM.
    Cornell University
    National Champion 1967, 1970
    ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
    Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

    Comment


    • Since I wasn't very familiar with Bitecofer, I've been reading up on her stuff and this caught my eye on twitter today:
      https://twitter.com/RachelBitecofer/...505043978?s=20

      First, Wasserman is one of the best in the field. CPR is in that Tier A1 with Sabato, 538, and PEC. It's all they do and they do it well. But Bitecofer really gets the best of Wasserman here. I like her data-based approach instead of assuming it was some sort of three snake eyes in a row kind of luck. Luck is just another way of saying you don't have the data.

      I dug around and eventually found the tool she appears to be using:
      https://www.politicaldata.com/2020-p...ction-tracker/

      https://tableau.the-pdi.com/t/Campai...viz_share_link

      Code:
      As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
      College Hockey 6       College Football 0
      BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
      Originally posted by SanTropez
      May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
      Originally posted by bigblue_dl
      I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
      Originally posted by Kepler
      When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
      He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

      Comment


      • I know the data doesn’t say so but something just tells me to keep an eye on Alaska here. Both Republicans, Sullivan and Young, are campaigning scared. All they’ve got is the old “they’re socialists in disguise” trope, and they only pull that out when things aren’t going well (they usually run on the old “we’ve got clout, look at what we do”). Plus they haven’t released any polling which makes me think they don’t like what they see. Again, I have no hard data to back it up but something feels different.
        U-A-A!!!Go!Go!GreenandGold!
        Applejack Tells You How UAA Is Doing...
        I spell Failure with UAF

        Originally posted by UAFIceAngel
        But let's be real...There are 40 some other teams and only two alaskan teams...the day one of us wins something big will be the day I transfer to UAA
        Originally posted by Doyle Woody
        Best sign by a visting Seawolf fan Friday went to a young man who held up a piece of white poster board that read: "YOU CAN'T SPELL FAILURE WITHOUT UAF."

        Comment


        • If I was McGrath's camapign manager in Kentucky, I would start airing ads with nothing but Mitch McConnell's clip from Fox News in 2016:

          "So, all we're doing ... is following a long standing tradition of not filling vacancies on the Supreme Court in the middle of a presidential election year."
          “Demolish the bridges behind you… then there is no choice but to build again.”

          Live Radio from 100.3

          Comment


          • What's this from AZcentral where they claim if Kelly wins, he could take office 11/30 because McSally's appointed instead if elected?
            "I went over the facts in my head, and admired how much uglier the situation had just become. Over the years I've learned that ignorance is more than just bliss. It's freaking orgasmic ecstasy".- Harry Dresden, Blood Rites


            Western Michigan Bronco Hockey- 2012 Mason Cup Champions

            Comment


            • Originally posted by aparch View Post
              If I was McGrath's camapign manager in Kentucky, I would start airing ads with nothing but Mitch McConnell's clip from Fox News in 2016:

              "So, all we're doing ... is following a long standing tradition of not filling vacancies on the Supreme Court in the middle of a presidential election year."
              Yep. He gave her an issue to run on now. Probably way too late though.
              "It's as if the Drumpf Administration is made up of the worst and unfunny parts of the Cleveland Browns, Washington Generals, and the alien Mon-Stars from Space Jam."
              -aparch

              "Scenes in "Empire Strikes Back" that take place on the tundra planet Hoth were shot on the present-day site of Ralph Engelstad Arena."
              -INCH

              Of course I'm a fan of the Vikings. A sick and demented Masochist of a fan, but a fan none the less.
              -ScoobyDoo 12/17/2007

              Comment


              • Uh chuck has short circuited again

                https://mobile.twitter.com/ChuckGras...21592411156482

                Comment


                • Susan Collin's both sides response makes it clear she will fold.

                  Cornell '04, Stanford '06


                  KDR

                  Rover Frenchy, Classic! Great post.
                  iwh30 I wish I could be as smart as you. I really do you are the man
                  gregg729 I just saw your sig, you do love having people revel in your "intelligence."
                  Ritt18 you are the perfect representation of your alma mater.
                  Miss Thundercat That's it, you win.
                  TBA#2 I want to kill you and dance in your blood.
                  DisplacedCornellian Hahaha. Thread over. Frenchy wins.

                  Test to see if I can add this.

                  Comment


                  • Say what you will about the Lincoln project but I’m looking forward to this

                    https://mobile.twitter.com/TheRickWi...84410321670144

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Deutsche Gopher Fan View Post
                      Say what you will about the Lincoln project but I’m looking forward to this

                      https://mobile.twitter.com/TheRickWi...84410321670144
                      Oh f-ck yes.
                      Cornell University
                      National Champion 1967, 1970
                      ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
                      Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Deutsche Gopher Fan View Post
                        "A lot of bad news this weekend."

                        My god. There are natural comics.
                        Cornell University
                        National Champion 1967, 1970
                        ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
                        Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Kepler View Post

                          "A lot of bad news this weekend."

                          My god. There are natural comics.
                          “That pidgin was our democracy”

                          Comment


                          • Oof

                            https://mobile.twitter.com/AJDelgado...83919658782720

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Deutsche Gopher Fan View Post
                              As my daughter says: “Mega oof.”
                              U-A-A!!!Go!Go!GreenandGold!
                              Applejack Tells You How UAA Is Doing...
                              I spell Failure with UAF

                              Originally posted by UAFIceAngel
                              But let's be real...There are 40 some other teams and only two alaskan teams...the day one of us wins something big will be the day I transfer to UAA
                              Originally posted by Doyle Woody
                              Best sign by a visting Seawolf fan Friday went to a young man who held up a piece of white poster board that read: "YOU CAN'T SPELL FAILURE WITHOUT UAF."

                              Comment


                              • Another really good thread about the inherent bias in the senate

                                https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/s...636700160?s=21

                                edit: forgot to delete the second inherent. Oops.
                                Last edited by dxmnkd316; 09-21-2020, 11:10 PM.
                                Code:
                                As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
                                College Hockey 6       College Football 0
                                BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
                                Originally posted by SanTropez
                                May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                                Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                                I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                                Originally posted by Kepler
                                When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                                He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

                                Comment

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