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116th Congress: F-cker WAS Impeached. Still not enough.

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  • I'm not saying she should run completely to the left, that would also be a mistake. What I am saying is she lacks a signature issue and the passion/courage to run with it. Running solely on "I'm not Rich Mitch, #FlipTheSenate" while copy-pasting the Buttigieg 2020 platform onto your website isn't interesting or effective.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by FadeToBlack&Gold View Post
      I'm not saying she should run completely to the left, that would also be a mistake. What I am saying is she lacks a signature issue and the passion/courage to run with it. Running solely on "I'm not Rich Mitch, #FlipTheSenate" while copy-pasting the Buttigieg 2020 platform onto your website isn't interesting or effective.
      That could be the way to max out your votes if you are running as an alternative in a Let's Protest Mitch election, though.

      It's not like KY is crying out for a Green New Deal or defunding the police. It's always going to be just this side of Belarus on human rights and education. So she may be okay running as a catcher's glove for people unhappy with the R's rather than stressing any given D policy which (except for health care) likely won't fly there.

      I'm the bomb-throwing Leftist of the board and I can see running the most boring, white bread, passionless, idealess candidates in pure red areas, where every election is a referendum on the conservative and liberalism and progress will always be regarded as moral peril.
      Cornell University
      National Champion 1967, 1970
      ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
      Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

      Comment


      • I understand what F2BG is saying, because when I compare the campaign in Kentucky to either statewide race here in Alaska there’s a huge difference as to how they’re being run and why they’re even in the polls.

        Like F2BG said, you need to run on something that’ll cut through the noise. In Alaska we have Alyse Galvin running against Don Young on the economy and how Young can’t do anything to help because he’s lost his clout. Then we have Dr. Al Gross running against Dan Sullivan on health care, showing that he’s voted against allowing people to buy prescriptions from Canada and taken money from pharmaceutical companies.

        Now, Galvin and Gross are fairly bland conservadem “Independents” too but they’ve found a message that works and are hammering it home. I don’t get any sense of that in Kentucky.
        U-A-A!!!Go!Go!GreenandGold!
        Applejack Tells You How UAA Is Doing...
        I spell Failure with UAF

        Originally posted by UAFIceAngel
        But let's be real...There are 40 some other teams and only two alaskan teams...the day one of us wins something big will be the day I transfer to UAA
        Originally posted by Doyle Woody
        Best sign by a visting Seawolf fan Friday went to a young man who held up a piece of white poster board that read: "YOU CAN'T SPELL FAILURE WITHOUT UAF."

        Comment


        • Fair enough, F2B&G and JimjamesAK. There’s a reason McGrath was my second favorite choice out of two viable candidates in the primary. I would argue she’d still be behind even if she ran a race with a different message. In Alaska, the presidential race is within 7-10 points. In Kentucky, it’s 20 points. Gross had a poll where he was tied with Sullivan, but it was a partisan poll, which usually makes it around 5 points closer for the party sponsoring the poll. Looks like the average of the most recent polls is Sullivan is up by around 7 points, which is right in line with the Presidential race. Looks like Galvin is neck and neck with Young based on a couple polls, so maybe her message is resonating more. It’s too bad that they’re going to have to identify as “D” on the ballot now due to that court ruling. I hope that doesn’t affect the race too much.
          Kepler- I’m liberal as hell too. You’re speaking about being pragmatic. You’re forced to be when you live in a red state. Amy McGrath’s ultra conservadem Joe Manchin type politics (at least on paper, since she hasn’t held office yet) >>>>>>> any Republican.

          Comment


          • I’m listening to a podcast about the disappearance of former Alaska congressman Nick Begich and LA congressman Hale Boggs.

            I wonder what the political landscape in Alaska would be today if he didn’t die in the plane crash. Begich was a Democrat who was only nearing the end of his first term when he disappeared, but he had taken 55% of the vote and posthumously took 56% of the vote in the 1972 election.

            The GOP won back the special election in 1973 with Don Young, who is still in Congress almost 48 years later at age 87.
            Go Green! Go White! Go State!

            1966, 1986, 2007

            Go Tigers, Go Packers, Go Red Wings, Go Pistons

            Comment


            • Originally posted by psych View Post
              Fair enough, F2B&G and JimjamesAK. There’s a reason McGrath was my second favorite choice out of two viable candidates in the primary. I would argue she’d still be behind even if she ran a race with a different message. In Alaska, the presidential race is within 7-10 points. In Kentucky, it’s 20 points. Gross had a poll where he was tied with Sullivan, but it was a partisan poll, which usually makes it around 5 points closer for the party sponsoring the poll. Looks like the average of the most recent polls is Sullivan is up by around 7 points, which is right in line with the Presidential race. Looks like Galvin is neck and neck with Young based on a couple polls, so maybe her message is resonating more. It’s too bad that they’re going to have to identify as “D” on the ballot now due to that court ruling. I hope that doesn’t affect the race too much.
              Kepler- I’m liberal as hell too. You’re speaking about being pragmatic. You’re forced to be when you live in a red state. Amy McGrath’s ultra conservadem Joe Manchin type politics (at least on paper, since she hasn’t held office yet) >>>>>>> any Republican.
              I would caution that polling and polling data in Alaska is usually pretty suspect and hard to deal with. I know even 538 has commented on that.
              U-A-A!!!Go!Go!GreenandGold!
              Applejack Tells You How UAA Is Doing...
              I spell Failure with UAF

              Originally posted by UAFIceAngel
              But let's be real...There are 40 some other teams and only two alaskan teams...the day one of us wins something big will be the day I transfer to UAA
              Originally posted by Doyle Woody
              Best sign by a visting Seawolf fan Friday went to a young man who held up a piece of white poster board that read: "YOU CAN'T SPELL FAILURE WITHOUT UAF."

              Comment


              • Good to hear this morning that North Carolina, Arizona, and one other state I am fogetting are leaning Biden. Stick a fork in Trump if those flip.
                **NOTE: The misleading post above was brought to you by Reynold's Wrap and American Steeples, makers of Crosses.

                Originally Posted by dropthatpuck-Scooby's a lost cause.
                Originally Posted by First Time, Long Time-Always knew you were nothing but a troll.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by ScoobyDoo View Post
                  Good to hear this morning that North Carolina, Arizona, and one other state I am fogetting are leaning Biden. Stick a fork in Trump if those flip.
                  Scooby....are you feeling OK?

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by net presence View Post

                    Scooby....are you feeling OK?
                    I'm exhausted and I want that ****er gone and in jail as soon as ****ing possible.
                    **NOTE: The misleading post above was brought to you by Reynold's Wrap and American Steeples, makers of Crosses.

                    Originally Posted by dropthatpuck-Scooby's a lost cause.
                    Originally Posted by First Time, Long Time-Always knew you were nothing but a troll.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by ScoobyDoo View Post
                      Good to hear this morning that North Carolina, Arizona, and one other state I am fogetting are leaning Biden. Stick a fork in Trump if those flip.
                      FL maybe?
                      Cornell University
                      National Champion 1967, 1970
                      ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
                      Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

                      Comment


                      • 538 Senate forecast has the Dems slightly favored to get to 50.

                        Here are their odds (not vote percentage) for each close state (CAPS is the incumbent party):

                        Dem flips:

                        .78 AZ Kelly-D > MCSALLY-N
                        .68 CO Hickenlooper-D > GARDNER-N
                        .62 NC Cunningham-D > TILLIS-N
                        .53 ME Gideons-D > COLLINS-N

                        Nazi flips:

                        .78 Tuberville-N > JONES-D

                        Close Nazi holds:

                        .59 IA ERNST-N > Greenfield-D
                        Last edited by Kepler; 09-18-2020, 11:31 AM.
                        Cornell University
                        National Champion 1967, 1970
                        ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
                        Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Kepler View Post
                          538 Senate forecast has the Dems slightly favored to get to 50.

                          Here are their odds (not vote percentage) for each close state (CAPS is the incumbent party):

                          Dem flips:

                          .78 AZ Kelly-D > MCSALLY-N
                          .68 CO Hickenlooper-D > GARDNER-N
                          .62 NC Cunningham-D > TILLIS-N
                          .53 ME Gideons-D > COLLINS-N

                          Nazi flips:

                          .78 Tuberville-N > JONES-D

                          Close Nazi holds:

                          .59 IA ERNST-N > Greenfield-D
                          Gideons only at 53%? Hasn’t she been been increasing basically every time a poll comes out?
                          Go Green! Go White! Go State!

                          1966, 1986, 2007

                          Go Tigers, Go Packers, Go Red Wings, Go Pistons

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Spartanforlife4 View Post

                            Gideons only at 53%? Hasn’t she been been increasing basically every time a poll comes out?
                            no s. It's Gideon.

                            recent Quinnipiac head to head poll has Gideon up 12%

                            https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.../senate/maine/

                            A head to head poll is probably pretty accurate because we have ranked choice voting. There is a left-leaning independent that will pull in 6% or so, but she's telling her voters to rank Gideon second.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Spartanforlife4 View Post

                              Gideons only at 53%? Hasn’t she been been increasing basically every time a poll comes out?
                              They may also factor in historical trends and effects that will tighten it at the wire. I dunno. I trust them, they're good at this.
                              Cornell University
                              National Champion 1967, 1970
                              ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
                              Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Kepler View Post
                                538 Senate forecast has the Dems slightly favored to get to 50.

                                Here are their odds (not vote percentage) for each close state (CAPS is the incumbent party):

                                Dem flips:

                                .78 AZ Kelly-D > MCSALLY-N
                                .68 CO Hickenlooper-D > GARDNER-N
                                .62 NC Cunningham-D > TILLIS-N
                                .53 ME Gideons-D > COLLINS-N

                                Nazi flips:

                                .78 Tuberville-N > JONES-D

                                Close Nazi holds:

                                .59 IA ERNST-N > Greenfield-D
                                Granted I would prefer 51 over 50, but it seems like winning 51 and having the VP probably move somewhat in tandem right? I guess having the VP is probably a little more likely (but nothing it definite so this isn't woofing) than winning IA, which seems to be the most toss-upy.

                                Cornell '04, Stanford '06


                                KDR

                                Rover Frenchy, Classic! Great post.
                                iwh30 I wish I could be as smart as you. I really do you are the man
                                gregg729 I just saw your sig, you do love having people revel in your "intelligence."
                                Ritt18 you are the perfect representation of your alma mater.
                                Miss Thundercat That's it, you win.
                                TBA#2 I want to kill you and dance in your blood.
                                DisplacedCornellian Hahaha. Thread over. Frenchy wins.

                                Test to see if I can add this.

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