Covfefe-19 The 12th Part: The Only Thing Worse Than This New Board Is TrumpVirus2020

[dxmnkd316]

LOL, five cases in NY. CA, CO, MN, NY.... It's EVERYWHERE.

[psych]

Good (well, at least informative) thread on Omicron.

https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/stat...500653568?s=20

Some key bullets:
If this is a more infectious variant only (no immune escape), the R0 would be impossibly high.
If it was slightly less infectious, it would need to be total immune escape (unlikely).
Most likely, 30% more contagious than Delta and 5x more immune escape.

Summed up:


There are a lot of nuances though. THe data from South Africa is difficult to interpret since only about 25% of people are vaccinated but it's also likely that nearly everyone in SA was exposed.

This graph scared the hell out of me. It's the effective R number. If Re>1, it's spreading. If Re<1, it's not. NOrmally we sound the alarms at Re at like 1.4. Minnesota hasn't been above 1.4 since April 2020. This is SA as a whole and it's nearing 2.9. That's insanely high.

??????¢??

In the Gauteng Province, it's nearly 3.5.

??????¢??




This isn't ideal either:



Edit:
Oh boy. This is the uppercut coming for trumpers it didn't kill. SOunds like the data for previous infections (even those with MULTIPLE prior infections and delta) it has a decent amount of immune evasion. More than Delta.
https://twitter.com/SACEMAdirector/s...673159685?s=20

I read through that thread and understood maybe 10% of it…sounds like the unvaccinated are, um, ****ed.

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Almost right after I posted that last update, it hit me. Malaise, fatigue, loss of appetite, and generally feeling like a cold is coming on. Had to fight through an afternoon's worth of long-arse meetings.

[dxmnkd316]

I had to read it three our four times to digest most of what I did. But I think your guess is right. But I think we're all in trouble.

Imagine the public is a fire. With wild type covid, that fire was made of charcoal briquettes. You started it by lighting a single briquette and let others catch from it. It takes a while but it will light. You can also slow it down pretty effectively by isolating individual briquettes as they catch fire. You won't stop it, but you can slow it down.

With omicron, it seems like it's going to be closer to a pile of dry leaves. Once it hits you can't slow the spread. So hospitals are going to be flooded. Which is bad for those who get it. But it's also bad for everyone and worse than any of the previous waves. Delta hit in late summer. Which is good to help slow it down for a lot of northern states. The problem is, omicron hit the day after thanksgiving. And it's already everywhere, we just weren't looking.

The next two months could be ugly for all of us. Then again, maybe not. I think it hinges on how much this evades vaccine immunity and whether the severity in the vaccinated is affected. I'm guessing recently boosted should be at least ok, maybe great. Because our bodies are still flooded with soldier antibodies. Even if only half have guns, the flood of those that do work will be better than nothing.

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

I am not as dire yet on this. I need to see more data to make me panic.

[state of hockey]

I am not as dire yet on this. I need to see more data to make me panic.

Ditto.

[RaceBoarder]

I am not as dire yet on this. I need to see more data to make me panic.

Im kinda the same way...

But I also know that the Dumpy/Unvaxxed crowd is a tinder box that just needs a single spark to go up in flames... When, not If at this point...

[Drew S.]

Saw a video of Trump gleefully telling a crowd at Maralago more people have died of Covid this year than last year.

[state of hockey]

Good to know he's taking credit.

[Handyman]

https://twitter.com/bubbaprog/status...29157089792000

The state of Missouri commissioned a study to see if mask mandates worked. When the results came in, showing they saved lives, the state blocked publication in order to maintain its attempt to force cities like St. Louis to end their mask mandates:

[rufus]

LOL, five cases in NY. CA, CO, MN, NY.... It's EVERYWHERE.

It'll soon be zero.

[Swansong]

I am not as dire yet on this. I need to see more data to make me panic.

Me too. We're doing a lot of tea leaf reading out of one area (South Africa) that has very low vaccination rates. Omicron is everywhere. We'll find out soon enough.

[dxmnkd316]

Me too. We're doing a lot of tea leaf reading out of one area (South Africa) that has very low vaccination rates. Omicron is everywhere. We'll find out soon enough.

Right, but they have also had an incredible level of exposure. Estimates in the thread I posted were "nearly everyone". https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/stat...436623873?s=20

That's why this is a big deal. If they only have 25% vaccinated, it doesn't tell us much about how omicron and the vaccines will play out. It likely does tell us more about how Omicron and the "naturally immune" crowd will.

[MichVandal]

Saw a video of Trump gleefully telling a crowd at Maralago more people have died of Covid this year than last year.

And they are mostly his voters. Odd to be happy about that.

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

Right, but they have also had an incredible level of exposure. Estimates in the thread I posted were "nearly everyone". https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/stat...436623873?s=20

That's why this is a big deal. If they only have 25% vaccinated, it doesn't tell us much about how omicron and the vaccines will play out. It likely does tell us more about how Omicron and the "naturally immune" crowd will.

Yes. We need to understand what happens with the vaccines. Hence waiting for data.

A lot of people with backgrounds better than mine are waiting for the data also. And I’m not a slouch at infectious diseases .

wrll be running out own versions of SA in the US with red states with ****ty vax rates (HEllo TN).