Covfefe-19 The 12th Part: The Only Thing Worse Than This New Board Is TrumpVirus2020

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

My company has mandated. We had some town halls.

I have the names of dozens of people who should be isolated from society based off the questions they asked

[MichVandal]

While there's a LOT of gnashing of teeth and crying over the mandates, looking at the data- they seem to be effective.

7 day average of cases has dropped from 160k/day to 106k/day, and deaths have gone from 7 day rolling average of 2k/day to 1.8k/day (I should not have to remind people there's a lag between cases and death, but I will considering a handful of people who post nonsense).

It will be nice if the holiday season does not cause a climb due to the additional vaccinated. And the vaccination numbers has continued to climb after it "plateaued" in the middle of the year.

So in spite of the misinformation, and all of the denial that this is real, there is a trend that people's lives are being saved. Long way to go, but the trend is good.

[dxmnkd316]

Not sure I agree with that conclusion.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...-in-your-state

the uptick is so small, it could just be third doses being administered.

[Swansong]

While there's a LOT of gnashing of teeth and crying over the mandates, looking at the data- they seem to be effective.

7 day average of cases has dropped from 160k/day to 106k/day, and deaths have gone from 7 day rolling average of 2k/day to 1.8k/day (I should not have to remind people there's a lag between cases and death, but I will considering a handful of people who post nonsense).

It will be nice if the holiday season does not cause a climb due to the additional vaccinated. And the vaccination numbers has continued to climb after it "plateaued" in the middle of the year.

So in spite of the misinformation, and all of the denial that this is real, there is a trend that people's lives are being saved. Long way to go, but the trend is good.

Yeah, ultimately most people value their livelihood over their "principles" (wildly mistaken though they may be). Between that and Delta's incredibly fast burn rate, cases are definitely dropping in most places.

[MichVandal]

Not sure I agree with that conclusion.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...-in-your-state

the uptick is so small, it could just be third doses being administered.

I was looking at the "Statistics" data that just tracks one and two shots- when I google "covid usa". The slope of the line looks reasonably steady, to me.

And hospitalizations are dropping.

FWIW, cases and deaths is NY Times, vaccinations and hospitalizations are Our World In Data- according to Google.

When I click on the link to Our World In Data- it does show an increase in vaccinations from .19/100 people on Sept 28 to .27/100 people on Oct 6.

I realize that the change is very regional, and I expect it will stay that way since there are smaller companies in rural areas that could get around the mandate. But even the article you post shows that the slope of the line has gone up in the last few weeks.

[RaceBoarder]

The VAX rate will trickle up slowly as companies start their own mandates.

In order to get this last big push from the employer mandated vaccines, however, we need a hard "do by" date from the Feds. Until that happens, most will drag their feet and talk a big anti-vax game. Just put a date out there and stick to it.

[MichVandal]

The VAX rate will trickle up slowly as companies start their own mandates.

In order to get this last big push from the employer mandated vaccines, however, we need a hard "do by" date from the Feds. Until that happens, most will drag their feet and talk a big anti-vax game. Just put a date out there and stick to it.

There is one for the government- in November, IIRC. That's for federal employees.

[Handyman]

https://twitter.com/baltimoresun/sta...41874632196098

A Cumberland man killed his brother and sister-in-law in their Ellicott City home last week because his brother, a pharmacist, administered COVID-19 vaccines, according to Howard County court documents.

This is why people "just asking questions" can shut the **** up and leave.

[LynahFan]

I was looking at the "Statistics" data that just tracks one and two shots- when I google "covid usa". The slope of the line looks reasonably steady, to me.

And hospitalizations are dropping.

FWIW, cases and deaths is NY Times, vaccinations and hospitalizations are Our World In Data- according to Google.

When I click on the link to Our World In Data- it does show an increase in vaccinations from .19/100 people on Sept 28 to .27/100 people on Oct 6.

I realize that the change is very regional, and I expect it will stay that way since there are smaller companies in rural areas that could get around the mandate. But even the article you post shows that the slope of the line has gone up in the last few weeks.

Yeah, I'm in the skeptical bandwagon on this. The vax rate (doses/day) *is* ticking up as a result of the mandates for sure - without the mandates, the rate would continue to taper to almost nothing. However, I don't think that uptick (from a relatively small baseline of just 650K shots per day) is responsible for the dramatic reduction in hospitalizations and presumed future decrease in deaths that we'll be seeing.

I'm also not convinced that a significant enough number of unvaccinated people modify their behaviors (masking, distancing) in the face of spiking COVID cases to arrest and then reverse the growth rate. At this point, most unvaccinated people are pretty hard-core deniers/freedom-over-responsibility types - just go check out your local school board meetings, if the public is even still allowed at yours.

My suspicion is that there's an inherent variation in susceptibility based on the complex interactions between virus and body chemistry. Each variant burns extremely quickly through the people who happen to be highly susceptible, that sub-population achieves "herd immunity" to that variant, and then the case rate drops back to the rate dictated by the less-susceptible population. I have no evidence for this other than a lack of correlation with other effects that could be causing the wild swings in numbers. We've had peaks in different seasons, on holidays and not, with a decently vaccinated population and not, etc.

My county in Florida went from 655 new cases/day for the week ending August 26 to just 172 cases/day for the week ending Sept 30. The population did not get 4x more vaccinated, 4x more mask-compliant, or 4x anything else in that span. (yes, yes, I understand non-linearity, I promise.)

Bottom line: It's the viruses' world - we just (try) to live in it.

[Swansong]

I don't have the time to get evidence for this (sorry), but Delta has been mystifying epidemiologists by burning out more quickly than previous variants. There are many educated guesses - existing immunity from vaccines or infection, human behavior as they see their communities impacted, some combination of all of that - but the fact is, Delta seems to burn fast and hot and flame out. It leaves devastation in its wake, but India, the UK, MO, FL and other places that got whacked have seen rapid declines. Even places in the Northeast that didn't have the burn have seem substantial declines.

[dxmnkd316]

I was looking at the "Statistics" data that just tracks one and two shots- when I google "covid usa". The slope of the line looks reasonably steady, to me.

And hospitalizations are dropping.

FWIW, cases and deaths is NY Times, vaccinations and hospitalizations are Our World In Data- according to Google.

When I click on the link to Our World In Data- it does show an increase in vaccinations from .19/100 people on Sept 28 to .27/100 people on Oct 6.

I realize that the change is very regional, and I expect it will stay that way since there are smaller companies in rural areas that could get around the mandate. But even the article you post shows that the slope of the line has gone up in the last few weeks.

Yeah, but delta has also been running wild since july, so it tracks that the trend would be going down as people recover. It's run out of bodies.

[dxmnkd316]

I don't have the time to get evidence for this (sorry), but Delta has been mystifying epidemiologists by burning out more quickly than previous variants. There are many educated guesses - existing immunity from vaccines or infection, human behavior as they see their communities impacted, some combination of all of that - but the fact is, Delta seems to burn fast and hot and flame out. It leaves devastation in its wake, but India, the UK, MO, FL and other places that got whacked have seen rapid declines. Even places in the Northeast that didn't have the burn have seem substantial declines.

I think it burns out because it burns so fast (contagious). It's going to churn through everyone in a fraction of the time compared to the early variants. Viruses tend to become less dangerous and more infectious over time. Generally. Some people may have escaped being infected by earlier variants but Delta is going to find those difficult to reach people because it's so crazy infectious. Plus, there's going to be some immunity from previous versions even if there are breakthrough infections. I have to imagine it just ran out of people to infect.

So I guess I'm not sure why it's mysterious.

[dxmnkd316]

Yeah, I'm in the skeptical bandwagon on this. The vax rate (doses/day) *is* ticking up as a result of the mandates for sure - without the mandates, the rate would continue to taper to almost nothing. However, I don't think that uptick (from a relatively small baseline of just 650K shots per day) is responsible for the dramatic reduction in hospitalizations and presumed future decrease in deaths that we'll be seeing.

I'm also not convinced that a significant enough number of unvaccinated people modify their behaviors (masking, distancing) in the face of spiking COVID cases to arrest and then reverse the growth rate. At this point, most unvaccinated people are pretty hard-core deniers/freedom-over-responsibility types - just go check out your local school board meetings, if the public is even still allowed at yours.

My suspicion is that there's an inherent variation in susceptibility based on the complex interactions between virus and body chemistry. Each variant burns extremely quickly through the people who happen to be highly susceptible, that sub-population achieves "herd immunity" to that variant, and then the case rate drops back to the rate dictated by the less-susceptible population. I have no evidence for this other than a lack of correlation with other effects that could be causing the wild swings in numbers. We've had peaks in different seasons, on holidays and not, with a decently vaccinated population and not, etc.

My county in Florida went from 655 new cases/day for the week ending August 26 to just 172 cases/day for the week ending Sept 30. The population did not get 4x more vaccinated, 4x more mask-compliant, or 4x anything else in that span. (yes, yes, I understand non-linearity, I promise.)

Bottom line: It's the viruses' world - we just (try) to live in it.

I think the regionality is likely driven by when those communities are driven indoors. In the south, that's the summer. In the north, that's the winter. But otherwise, it's just where an ember lands to start a new fire. If it finds a way to catch, it's going to keep burning until it runs out of fuel.

[LynahFan]

Apparently my company (#3 Defense Contractor) finally decided that the mandate applies to us - email just came out. All employees must have their last shot by Nov 24 and have proof uploaded to an internal website by Dec 8. If you don't, then our timecard system will not allow you to charge to any federal contracts (which covers 98% of our work), so, although unstated, you will surely eventually run out of non-federal work (and PTO!) and be laid off.

They will allow medical (with a doctor's actual signature) and religious exemptions, but note that "social, political, or economic philosophies, as well as personal preferences, are not eligible for religious accommodation from vaccine requirements." Lol - fascists need not apply. They also say that unvaccinated people will have to follow additional testing protocols (that aren't fully worked out yet) AND will have to wear a mask at all times regardless of test results.

They be serious, y'all.

[LynahFan]

I think the regionality is likely driven by when those communities are driven indoors. In the south, that's the summer. In the north, that's the winter. But otherwise, it's just where an ember lands to start a new fire. If it finds a way to catch, it's going to keep burning until it runs out of fuel.

Florida had a nice spike in Jan 2021, too (best month of the year to be outside in Florida), so it's not just that. Probably the holiday bounce.