Covfefe-19 The 12th Part: The Only Thing Worse Than This New Board Is TrumpVirus2020

[Kepler]

This is what happens when population growth goes more or less unchecked without the critical infrastructure to support it. China has like 10 NYCs. India has three. It's just bad population and infrastructure management.

This is gonna be fun.

Note: I don't think it will get anything like that. Two possible futures:

(1) 10% likelihood: Right wing future (Mad Max): authoritarians control the world, there are massive die offs from wars, starvation, pollution, disease. Population is reduced back to levels seen at about the end of the 16th century, with decrease in mean lifespan to around 50.

(2) 90% likelihood: Left wing future (Star Trek): liberals control the world, women achieve political parity, universal education reduces family size to first below then right at replacement level, even with significant decrease in infant mortality and disease, and increased mean human lifespan to approximately 100. Population stabilizes to levels seen at about the start of the 20th century.

I will bet no city ever gets above 50M, and that by 2100 no city will be above 10M.

[SJHovey]

This is gonna be fun.

The population in Tokyo is expected to drop between 2010 and 2025?

[Kepler]

The population in Tokyo is expected to drop between 2010 and 2025?

Doesn't surprise me, they are way below replacement level.

[SJHovey]

Doesn't surprise me, they are way below replacement level.

Interesting. It wouldn't have surprised me if their growth slowed to a point that they were surpassed by other cities, but to see estimates that they'll actually start shrinking surprised me quite a bit.

[dxmnkd316]

Japan's growth rate has been negative since 2015. Below 0.5% since 1990.

[dxmnkd316]

This is gonna be fun.

Note: I don't think it will get anything like that. Two possible futures:

(1) 10% likelihood: Right wing future (Mad Max): authoritarians control the world, there are massive die offs from wars, starvation, pollution, disease. Population is reduced back to levels seen at about the end of the 16th century, with decrease in mean lifespan to around 50.

(2) 90% likelihood: Left wing future (Star Trek): liberals control the world, women achieve political parity, universal education reduces family size to first below then right at replacement level, even with significant decrease in infant mortality and disease, and increased mean human lifespan to approximately 100. Population stabilizes to levels seen at about the start of the 20th century.

I will bet no city ever gets above 50M, and that by 2100 no city will be above 10M.

They'll never get to that point. CHina saw what was happening with uncontrolled growth and tried to (literally) kill that off. The world won't be able to feed that many people. The world won't have enough water for that matter either (unless we figure out fusion in the next 50 years). I had a comment about Africa's unchecked growth making India's look tiny in my original post but deleted it.

Africa as a continent is growing at like 2.5%. Nigeria at 2.5%. Congo has been in the mid 3s for 20 years. Niger at 4%. None of this is sustainable. It doesn't bode well given that DRC and Nigeria are in tropical climates and we've already seen issues with Ebola and other hemorrhagic viruses. THe last two big ones were warning shots. Swine Flu, COVID, and SARS were warning shots. The planet will fight back. Between new viruses and bacteria, climate change, semi-limited resource reserves...

[Handyman]

Isnt Japan freaking out because the 20 and 30-somethings are opting to have zero kids? Isnt that the root cause of the negative growth?

[dxmnkd316]

Could be. But this isn't a new problem.

[Kepler]

Conservatards gather to play poker to protest COVID restrictions and you'll never guess what happens next.

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

Isnt Japan freaking out because the 20 and 30-somethings are opting to have zero kids? Isnt that the root cause of the negative growth?

That, and they pretty much shun immigration

[Kepler]

Isnt Japan freaking out because the 20 and 30-somethings are opting to have zero kids? Isnt that the root cause of the negative growth?

It's part of it. Basically:

(1) It's a highly educated country. Women have better things to do than be brat cannons.
(2) They've been in a recession since 1995
(3) Not as big a presence of the Zombie Cult
(4) Have you noticed they've been weird since we nuked them? Google "burusera."

[Kepler]

That, and they pretty much shun immigration

Japanese racism is in another part of the Scoville scale.

[Kepler]

Interesting. It wouldn't have surprised me if their growth slowed to a point that they were surpassed by other cities, but to see estimates that they'll actually start shrinking surprised me quite a bit.

Check out Russia. I have seen estimates that Russia's population in 2050 will be half today's.

1) Everybody's leaving
2) Everybody's depressed, drunk, and dying

Imagine if Alabama was inside the Arctic Circle.

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

The sixth component to Japan's negative growth is that the Japanese are also workaholics, and that mentality has carried over to women who have entered into the salaried/white collar workforce since the 80s. I have to think their whole exhausting culture of "no one leaves the office until the boss leaves" and post-work izakaya crawls by the men where a lot of the deals really get sealed, is pretty conducive to a lack of interest in sex.

[bronconick]

Check out Russia. I have seen estimates that Russia's population in 2050 will be half today's.

1) Everybody's leaving
2) Everybody's depressed, drunk, and dying

Imagine if Alabama was inside the Arctic Circle.

World War II savaged them, and every 20 years they have an echo. Boys born in 1923 in the USSR had a 20% chance of seeing 1946, and that meant they never had kids.