Covfefe-19 The 12th Part: The Only Thing Worse Than This New Board Is TrumpVirus2020

[aparch]

Florida’s hospitals looking to be in better shape.

FL Hospital Bed Weekly Update: July 19, 2020 Today's occupancy: All Beds: 75.2% ICU Beds: 78.6% One week ago (July 12): All Beds: 76.4% ICU Beds: 79.5% During past week, 80,236 new FL Covid cases, up 30% Bed availability IMPROVED. Stop the Panic.

I understand that is a bad thing around here.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RebelACol...10578516086787

Again, for being a "numbers guy" you don't understand how numbers, or averages, work.

Of the 315 hospitals state wide, and 6137 ICU beds statewide, there are a lot of hospitals with ZERO ICU beds available as of this morning:
https://www.wpbf.com/app/florida-cor...u-map/33327286

[aparch]

Here's the map from my link:

[alfablue]

Again, for being a "numbers guy" you don't understand how numbers, or averages, work.

Of the 315 hospitals state wide, and 6137 ICU beds statewide, there are a lot of hospitals with ZERO ICU beds available as of this morning:
https://www.wpbf.com/app/florida-cor...u-map/33327286

As been mentioned before, a lot of those vacancies are the result of people dying. Since that's consistently up. https://experience.arcgis.com/experi...1c643c195314e/ reports 13% availability right now.

If I were a computer nerd, I would be putting the data in a spread sheet, but IIRC two weeks ago, there were under 1000 beds, late last week it was 1300, and now it's back down to ~1100. And I would certainly not put concern in the pile of panic. Seems like the real fear mongers are the ones worry about people panicking when they are just posting data. The data pretty clearly suggests that nothing is being controlled for one thing, and *just* seeing a decline over a day or two does not equal success. Look at the metrics that reasonable governments have set out- no deaths for consecutive days, no new cases for consecutive days, etc. When that finally happens, we can celebrate. The only non-negative I see in Florida's data is that the reported increase in cases has slowed- two weeks ago was 76k new cases, last week was 78k new cases. That was the lowest increase in cases since they went from 5k to 7k per week.

(BTW, on a side note- where are you getting your Florida numbers, as the dashboard I use shows around 8500 available ICU beds in the state.)

[Wayuphere]

Where do you live that people arent engaging...because all I see is people all across the country engaging. That like 7 of us choose not to engage here is not proof of what you think it is especially since you dont know how we are off of this site? (here is a hint, many of us engage)

If you want to know what the enemy is up to there are better places for that than here. Hell most of his crap is on Twitter days before he posts it with the same graphs and often the same misspellings and grammar problems. Hell a random Google Search will probably help you find the enemy better than posting on a site where the VAST majority of us are on the Left.

And because we spar over this a lot...FTLT I do appreciate that you have been quoting the nimrod a lot less. In fact it makes your replies better :-)

2016 all over again.

[ScoobyDoo]

Here's the map from my link:

Fake News. We have beds for days and there is no problem. We have it licked.

Just ask him. He'll tell you.

[WisconsinWildcard]

One thing that people often miss when it comes to ICU bed capacity is that during the pandemic, hospitals have stopped basically all elective procedures that would take up an ICU bed. Up to 50% or so of ICU beds in a tertiary care facility with multiple, organ specific ICUs are usually taken up by routine post-op care. Eliminate that, and the overall percentage looks lower but the number of people in it with severe respiratory disease is actually much higher. You do not get that view just looking at the numbers.

The hospital in Ohio I worked for had 5-6 ICUs, roughly 140 ICU beds. We can expand if needed to around 200 (with some staffing issues). During the early peak, we were near 100% capacity, with postponing all things that could be postponed. Basically all beds available were Covid beds. But if you looked at the raw numbers, we would look OK, even though it was pretty ****ing scary. If you need an ICU bed and do not have it, your mortality is like 99%.

[aparch]

(BTW, on a side note- where are you getting your Florida numbers, as the dashboard I use shows around 8500 available ICU beds in the state.)

I searched Google for "ICU Beds in Florida," and the TV station I linked to the map to listed 6k as the number on their article.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[First Time, Long Time]

I keep seeing others echoing dimwits assertion that the lockdowns and masks aren't stopping the virus...but I don't recall that being the point. I always heard "slow" not "stop" as stopping it is almost impossible for a novel virus until there is a vaccine.

Besides when it comes to viruses they don't die anyway as they aren't alive. They are still in the body. I'm reminded of this from Dr. Fauci.

“Chickenpox is a virus. Lots of people have had it, and probably don't think about it much once the initial illness has passed. But it stays in your body and lives there forever, and maybe when you're older, you have debilitatingly painful outbreaks of shingles. You don't just get over this virus in a few weeks, never to have another health effect. We know this because it's been around for years, and has been studied medically for years.

Herpes is also a virus. And once someone has it, it stays in your body and lives there forever, and anytime they get a little run down or stressed-out they're going to have an outbreak. Maybe every time you have a big event coming up (school pictures, job interview, big date) you're going to get a cold sore. For the rest of your life. You don't just get over it in a few weeks. We know this because it's been around for years, and been studied medically for years.

HIV is a virus. It attacks the immune system and makes the carrier far more vulnerable to other illnesses. It has a list of symptoms and negative health impacts that goes on and on. It was decades before viable treatments were developed that allowed people to live with a reasonable quality of life. Once you have it, it lives in your body forever and there is no cure. Over time, that takes a toll on the body, putting people living with HIV at greater risk for health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, kidney disease, diabetes, bone disease, liver disease, cognitive disorders, and some types of cancer. We know this because it has been around for years, and had been studied medically for years.

Now with COVID-19, we have a novel virus that spreads rapidly and easily. The full spectrum of symptoms and health effects is only just beginning to be cataloged, much less understood.

So far the symptoms may include:

Fever
Fatigue
Coughing
Pneumonia
Chills/Trembling
Acute respiratory distress
Lung damage (potentially permanent)
Loss of taste (a neurological symptom)
Sore throat
Headaches
Difficulty breathing
Mental confusion
Diarrhea
Nausea or vomiting
Loss of appetite
Strokes have also been reported in some people who have COVID-19 (even in the relatively young)
Swollen eyes
Blood clots
Seizures
Liver damage
Kidney damage
Rash
COVID toes (weird, right?)

People testing positive for COVID-19 have been documented to be sick even after 60 days. Many people are sick for weeks, get better, and then experience a rapid and sudden flare up and get sick all over again. A man in Seattle was hospitalized for 62 days, and while well enough to be released, still has a long road of recovery ahead of him. Not to mention a $1.1 million medical bill.
Then there is MIS-C. Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children is a condition where different body parts can become inflamed, including the heart, lungs, kidneys, brain, skin, eyes, or gastrointestinal organs. Children with MIS-C may have a fever and various symptoms, including abdominal pain, vomiting, diarrhea, neck pain, rash, bloodshot eyes, or feeling extra tired. While rare, it has caused deaths.

This disease has not been around for years. It has basically been 6 months. No one knows yet the long-term health effects, or how it may present itself years down the road for people who have been exposed. We literally *do not know* what we do not know.
For those in our society who suggest that people being cautious are cowards, for people who refuse to take even the simplest of precautions to protect themselves and those around them, I want to ask, without hyperbole and in all sincerity:

How dare you?

How dare you risk the lives of others so cavalierly. How dare you decide for others that they should welcome exposure as "getting it over with", when literally no one knows who will be the lucky "mild symptoms" case, and who may fall ill and die. Because while we know that some people are more susceptible to suffering a more serious case, we also know that 20 and 30-year-olds have died, marathon runners and fitness nuts have died, children and infants have died.

How dare you behave as though you know more than medical experts, when those same experts acknowledge that there is so much we don't yet know, but with what we DO know, are smart enough to be scared of how easily this is spread, and recommend baseline precautions such as:

Frequent hand-washing
Physical distancing
Reduced social/public contact or interaction
Mask wearing
Covering your cough or sneeze
Avoiding touching your face
Sanitizing frequently touched surfaces

The more things we can all do to mitigate our risk of exposure, the better off we all are, in my opinion. Not only does it flatten the curve and allow health care providers to maintain levels of service that aren't immediately and catastrophically overwhelmed; it also reduces unnecessary suffering and deaths, and buys time for the scientific community to study the virus in order to come to a more full understanding of the breadth of its impacts in both the short and long term.

I reject the notion that it's "just a virus" and we'll all get it eventually. What a careless, lazy, heartless stance.”

So why this notion that we can "kill" the virus? I mean I learned that wasn't possible as a child.

[bronconick]

Again, for being a "numbers guy" you don't understand how numbers, or averages, work.

Of the 315 hospitals state wide, and 6137 ICU beds statewide, there are a lot of hospitals with ZERO ICU beds available as of this morning:
https://www.wpbf.com/app/florida-cor...u-map/33327286

Some of that on a county map is misleading, though. I go back to an old Freep article from April where "Region 6" in Michigan had 89 Adult ICU beds available in counties ranging from Mason (Ludington) to Ottawa (Holland) through Muskegon and Kent (GR). Odds are those ICU beds are primarily in Kent and Muskegon where people and hospitals are and 0-5 total available in Lake or Oceana county where they have a tiny medical center and would transfer people to a bigger hospital anyway.

[Handyman]

“Hey. I found an anecdote that some motorist died while following the speed limit, so speed limits don’t save lives! What’s next, banning cars??”

it is honestly astounding that someone with your intellect has not become a statistic yourself by now.

This logic is on full display in conservative twitter right now. Have a gander at the Soledad Obrien kerfuffle and see what I mean. Kepler's dream girl made herself look especially stupid when she decided to weigh in.

[alfablue]

I keep seeing others echoing dimwits assertion that the lockdowns and masks aren't stopping the virus...but I don't recall that being the point. I always heard "slow" not "stop" as stopping it is almost impossible for a novel virus until there is a vaccine.

Besides when it comes to viruses they don't die anyway as they aren't alive. They are still in the body. I'm reminded of this from Dr. Fauci.



So why this notion that we can "kill" the virus? I mean I learned that wasn't possible as a child.

I think it can be slowed enough that it has a very tough time replicating. For many countries- that's their status at the moment. Not gone, but so close that it's not a major problem. And not gone enough to just open things back up willy-nilly.

It's interesting to see sports in the EU- no fans, even at racing venues where viewers can be really spread out. And they are not seeing many new cases at all. On the other hand, here in the US- fans are being allowed at racing events, including in states where the virus has no indication that there's decent control over it. Funny how we continue to open back up faster than anyone else, and are wondering why people are still getting sick.

[Handyman]

One thing that people often miss when it comes to ICU bed capacity is that during the pandemic, hospitals have stopped basically all elective procedures that would take up an ICU bed. Up to 50% or so of ICU beds in a tertiary care facility with multiple, organ specific ICUs are usually taken up by routine post-op care. Eliminate that, and the overall percentage looks lower but the number of people in it with severe respiratory disease is actually much higher. You do not get that view just looking at the numbers.

The hospital in Ohio I worked for had 5-6 ICUs, roughly 140 ICU beds. We can expand if needed to around 200 (with some staffing issues). During the early peak, we were near 100% capacity, with postponing all things that could be postponed. Basically all beds available were Covid beds. But if you looked at the raw numbers, we would look OK, even though it was pretty ****ing scary. If you need an ICU bed and do not have it, your mortality is like 99%.

Yeah but what would you know ;-)

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

Minnesota sets new daily record for cases. Whoop woop

[leswp1]

Cause people like you and FTLT keep responding to him. He's still getting the reaction he craves, still whipping the skippy to it.

If everyone puts him on 'ignore' like I finally did, you won't even see when he posts his ****. And the only one he'll have to debate here is his old buddy whalers. Who I also put on ignore.

It's a hockey message board. How many people are on here, maybe a few thousand? His message has no impact, even if there were ten times that many here. If a tree falls in the forest with no one around , does it make a sound?

I see your point about the Dems at the national level, and you're right. But this ain't that. Fighting back with facts doesn't quiet the troll. Neither does shaming, or derision. The only thing that works is ignoring them. They want the pushback, good or bad. That's what gets them off. To have all of you jumping at his every post. You saw him on here just last week, begging for some sort of response, when everyone as ignoring him and not playing along. Keep him begging. He'll go off to find some new playmates.

I would give rep for this post but not an option. I have both of them on ignore. Been watching people wrestle with should someone respond thing. Having had to deal with anti-vaxxers when I was in practice my reader's digest response is- Eyes on the prize. And because I am better at unabridged and feeling philisophical- there are some good points about responding-

People who believe illogical things that are blatantly illogical rarely respond well to facts. Use the research the CDC did when trying to figure out what to do with anti-vaxxers. (tried to find the link but ran out of time). Jist- The more facts they are presented with the more they clung to their beliefs. They might even acknowledge the facts were true but still found ways to excuse/believe what they did (this was really fascinating to listen to the reasoning). It was more effective to go with the person's belief and ask them how they were going to problem solve thru what the consequences might be with their choice. (might not work here as these people are unable to admit to the existence of threat but...)

If you are concerned others might believe the things they are posting then consider posting links which provide correct information without engaging the person posting them- ex- post- deaths are going down response- link showing actual deaths with a label stating the current facts show deaths are increasing. This would provide information for anyone not familiar with the person's inability to grasp facts without engaging. Calling them stupid- no matter how true- is not going to do anything except incite further silliness on their part. You don't need to find multiple different links, just post the same ones over and over. We teach this to parents dealing with recalcitrant toddlers- be a tape recorder. Say the same thing. You are not posting to convince the person trying to perpetuate misinformation. You are posting in case anyone comes upon post and needs accurate info.

Again, eyes on the prize. This is very similar to a toddler pitching a fit- they look to see if anyone is listening and paying attention to the crocodile tears. If no one is they stop until they think someone is paying attention again or if they are feeling particularly energetic they will up the volume (number of silly or outrageous posts). Just like a toddler it helps to realize they are hearing (seeing) your words but they just don't like them, don't care, or are enjoying pi55ing you off. No point in arguing. Arguing, being logical, factual or anything else will not change the toddlers want for ice cream at 6AM. They will not change a person who can believe things that are so patently illogical and they most certainly will encourage someone who is enjoying getting people in a froth.

Eyes on the prize- present facts, get out. At some point you have to realize that short of the virus rendering them incapacitated they are not going to change. You cannot save people from themselves. And, even tho it is unfair, we can't stop people from doing things that harm others 100% of the time. We can only work to decrease the damage.

That said it is helpful to understand what those who are not exposed to the facts are seeing. I attempt to scroll by those who do get the facts but are have sociopathic tendencies to think only of themselves.

[aparch]

Some of that on a county map is misleading, though. I go back to an old Freep article from April where "Region 6" in Michigan had 89 Adult ICU beds available in counties ranging from Mason (Ludington) to Ottawa (Holland) through Muskegon and Kent (GR). Odds are those ICU beds are primarily in Kent and Muskegon where people and hospitals are and 0-5 total available in Lake or Oceana county where they have a tiny medical center and would transfer people to a bigger hospital anyway.

Oh absolutely, and I agree, because for Region 8 (UP), I think they said there were like 80 ICU beds in the whole UP with 65 of 'em between Marquette, Iron Mountain, and Escanaba. If you were anywhere else you were SOL.

So I get where they're at 70% capacity state wide and dropping. The capacity and availability of hospitals and ICU beds in Jacksonville, Orlando, Miami, Palm Beach, Tampa Bay are way different than those in Tallahassee, Pensacola, and Gainsville. But those three are where there are limited resources and are being overwhelmed.

It's just frustrating when someone parrots a bunk statewide number without looking into just why...

(I'll admit I've done it before as well.)