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Covfefe-19 The 12th Part: The Only Thing Worse Than This New Board Is TrumpVirus2020

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  • Originally posted by MichVandal View Post

    So I will admit at being very lazy....

    But it seems to me that the potential of post May- look at DC. This is mostly a tightly packed area of people, much higher density than most of the country, and it has some of the lowest death rates. I very much remembering pointing that out when the Dakotas caught on fire later in the year. That may be not the best one to look at...

    Looking at the data- it seems that the area that has the lowest overall death rate is Puerto Rico- where 3,563 died of a population of about 3.2M. If you extrapolate that to the rest of the country, it is just about 370,000 deaths. (have to update a spreadsheet to really model it) And I will say, I know the healthcare system there is not all that great. They did a lot to prevent the spread.

    There's a lot of ways to model it, but I really think it's safe to say that under 500,000 deaths was very possible had it not been for the massive resistance. Which would also mean the economy would be a lot stronger at this point.
    A follow up...

    I did the deaths per state and then used that data to extrapolate to the entire country.

    Hawai'i was the lowest death rate, and if extrapolated to the rest of the 330M, ~260k deaths.
    But it could be worse- extrapolate Mississippi, we would be 1.18M deaths.

    For the most part, the list follows redness. Michigan sucks at 1.03M extrapolated. Maine is not bad at 413k. And California seems to be better than "average" at 657k.

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    • Originally posted by MichVandal View Post

      A follow up...

      I did the deaths per state and then used that data to extrapolate to the entire country.

      Hawai'i was the lowest death rate, and if extrapolated to the rest of the 330M, ~260k deaths.
      But it could be worse- extrapolate Mississippi, we would be 1.18M deaths.

      For the most part, the list follows redness. Michigan sucks at 1.03M extrapolated. Maine is not bad at 413k. And California seems to be better than "average" at 657k.
      I think Hawaii benefits enormously from isolation and geography here.

      In terms of the rest, it's about population density and... "population density". I understand why NY would have a high case and death rate. I also understand why MS has a high case and death rate, albeit the reasons are wildly different.
      I gotta little bit of smoke and a whole lotta wine...

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      • Originally posted by Swansong View Post
        I've thought a lot about this as well. I firmly believe the US (and the world) would be substantially better if Trump wasn't... Trump. But Delta developed in India, based off a UK variant. Omicron was noticed in South Africa (much less knowledge of actual starting point). These likely would still have materialized, but the US may have been much more vaccinated when they did and would have had much better outcomes.

        I dunno. It's easy to blame the obviously incompetent evil that is Donald Trump, but this has been a truly global pandemic. I don't know how to quantify the improvement from Trump to even Millard Fillmore-level incompetence.
        Well, keep in mind, we could ahve had 80% of our population vaccinated and it was very effective against delta. So I don't think it was like Delta (and certainly not Omicron) were the wood chipper thye were for the unvaccinated.
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        • Originally posted by Swansong View Post

          I think Hawaii benefits enormously from isolation and geography here.

          In terms of the rest, it's about population density and... "population density". I understand why NY would have a high case and death rate. I also understand why MS has a high case and death rate, albeit the reasons are wildly different.
          I disagree, somewhat, of the density thing. It does explain why Utah was quite good (extrapolate to 400k), but not places like Puerto Rico- which has 3.2M people in a small island. And while they are isolated, they are also easy to get to.

          And for sure, Washington DC- that's very dense, and in the middle of everything- extrapolated to 580k.

          From what I can see, attitude toward the virus is more important than population density. And it also shapes how effective isolation can be.

          When I first did this analysis, the top were New York, New Jersey, Mass, Conn... New York was moved from worst to 6th, NJ to 3rd. Back then, the top of the list was mostly NE states down to Jersey. The high population density areas have been taken over by the south and attitude.

          One opinion thing- even if dumpy was not president, I suspect this would have gone down party lines or at least regionally- it happened 100 years ago, it would happen again.

          The bigger point, though, is for the people who have been fighting against doing anything- they actually have graves that they have caused. Has it not been for people like jebbers, I figure half of the current deaths could have been avoided pretty easily. And that would have let our economy get going again. Let alone the schools and hospitals.
          Last edited by MichVandal; 01-20-2022, 04:55 PM.

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          • Lmao

            Pfizer’s...vaccine trial was funded by the company... and authored by Pfizer employees. The company... holds all the data... It will not begin entertaining requests for trial data until May 2025. - BMJ editors

            LMFAO

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            • Originally posted by Swansong View Post
              I've thought a lot about this as well. I firmly believe the US (and the world) would be substantially better if Trump wasn't... Trump. But Delta developed in India, based off a UK variant. Omicron was noticed in South Africa (much less knowledge of actual starting point). These likely would still have materialized, but the US may have been much more vaccinated when they did and would have had much better outcomes.

              I dunno. It's easy to blame the obviously incompetent evil that is Donald Trump, but this has been a truly global pandemic. I don't know how to quantify the improvement from Trump to even Millard Fillmore-level incompetence.
              It is a global pandemic and if tRump was not involved we may have had better numbers but I think he also had something to do with the rest of the Globe. Think about what the outcome would have been if he had been a real leader and took things seriously. What would have happened with global messaging? Had he been serious instead of amoral, downplaying, spreading false information, stonewalling, corrupting the collection of data and forbidding/obstructing/contradicting correct information, what would the global climate for rejection of intelligent response have been?.

              Much as he is a buffoon he also supported or provided an environment that enabled a platform for the dysfunctional response. He is batsh1t crazy but he is media savvy and knows how to manipulate the media in a way to amplify what ever message he wishes to deliver. Imagine what the response would have been if we had a strong response that encouraged the world to have the same.

              Yes, I know there would be issues and he is not to blame for everything. He just set it up so intelligent response had to fight uphill.
              Last edited by leswp1; 01-20-2022, 10:08 PM.

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              • This is the end

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                • Originally posted by FadeToBlack&Gold View Post
                  The end of the Omicron phase, sure. But not the end-end. Once it mutates into influenza dangerous, we can deal with that, and it will be the end. Getting there, based on the Delta-Omicron change.

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                  • Cool.

                    The house I work in has a COVID-19 positive resident who doesn't want to comply and thinks it's all a hoax. He watches FOX news a lot.

                    We have a whole *** routine for entering and exiting his room.
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                    • So I see on the news that an international flight had to turn around because a passenger refused to wear a mask.

                      We are about 2 years into the flight mask requirement- what to these people expect to achieve by doing that? Has anyone not gotten a fine and been banned from that airline? I wonder if there's a common no fly list for the airlines....

                      Crazy how irrational people can be.

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                      • Originally posted by MissThundercat View Post
                        Cool.

                        The house I work in has a COVID-19 positive resident who doesn't want to comply and thinks it's all a hoax. He watches FOX news a lot.

                        We have a whole *** routine for entering and exiting his room.
                        Hope that includes wearing full hazmat suits- nothing seems to make them more mad than them being treated properly.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by FadeToBlack&Gold View Post
                          Surprisingly, IHME models1 suggest that the transmission intensity of omicron is so high that policy actions—eg, increasing mask use, expanding vaccination coverage in people who have not been vaccinated, or delivering third doses of COVID-19 vaccines—taken in the next weeks will have limited impact on the course of the omicron wave. IHME estimates suggest that increasing use of masks to 80% of the population, for example, will only reduce cumulative infections over the next 4 months by 10%. Increasing COVID-19 vaccine boosters or vaccinating people who have not yet been vaccinated is unlikely to have any substantial impact on the omicron wave because by the time these interventions are scaled up the omicron wave will be largely over.
                          In other words, if you have fucked around you are going to find out.
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                          • Originally posted by MichVandal View Post
                            We are about 2 years into the flight mask requirement- what to these people expect to achieve by doing that? Has anyone not gotten a fine and been banned from that airline? I wonder if there's a common no fly list for the airlines....
                            Yes, there have been fines and bans from individual airlines. It's not enough. At this point, the people who are still doing it are a55holes who are doing it willfully because they want to make a political statement and/or they just want to "own the libz" who comply by causing delays. The airlines were discussing collaboration on ban lists, but I think there may be legal issues there if someone is not on the federal no-fly list.

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                            • Originally posted by MichVandal View Post
                              More sad is how many people have gone out of their way to make sure we clear 1,000,000 dead Americans when this could have likely stopped at somewhere south of 500,000.
                              Yes. This. The US death rate is going to be at least 2x as high as was medically inevitable. It all lies at the feet of Dump and the GQP. Half a million murders.
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                              • Originally posted by MichVandal View Post
                                So I see on the news that an international flight had to turn around because a passenger refused to wear a mask.

                                We are about 2 years into the flight mask requirement- what to these people expect to achieve by doing that? Has anyone not gotten a fine and been banned from that airline? I wonder if there's a common no fly list for the airlines....

                                Crazy how irrational people can be.
                                In this case the woman is on no fly until the case is adjudicated.

                                I think they should send her the bill. Gotta be a few hundred thou, right?
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