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Covfefe-19 The 12th Part: The Only Thing Worse Than This New Board Is TrumpVirus2020

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  • Originally posted by Kepler View Post

    EU predicted 60% IINM.
    Topol doesn't usually underestimate things (most consider him on the alarmist side), but in this case, I would not doubt the EU's projections. I mean it when I say that Omicron will likely be among the most contagious/infectious diseases ever recorded.

    https://www.healthline.com/health/r-...duction-number

    That's from early in the pandemic looking at the OG strain (newer estimates suggest it may have been in the 2-3 range). Omicron's R0 is still being determined, but early estimates are that it is at least 7, if not substantially higher.
    https://vitals.sutterhealth.org/omic...20is%2012%2D18


    For perspective, measles is 12-18. Influenza is .9-2.1.
    https://transportgeography.org/conte...ious-diseases/
    This hasn't been updated recently (newer covid variants are obviously much higher), but it gives you some perspective to compare to other highly infectious diseases.

    I gotta little bit of smoke and a whole lotta wine...

    Comment


    • Aaah yes. Someone is dead and the ******* comes in and ****s on it.
      **NOTE: The misleading post above was brought to you by Reynold's Wrap and American Steeples, makers of Crosses.

      Originally Posted by dropthatpuck-Scooby's a lost cause.
      Originally Posted by First Time, Long Time-Always knew you were nothing but a troll.

      Comment


      • I know some folks on here have advocated for this: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a..._medium=social
        Originally posted by BobbyBrady
        Crosby probably wouldn't even be on BC's top two lines next year

        Comment


        • Have a chat with the CDC and the international studies that came out.

          I wonder how many posts there have been on this board posting links of peoples deaths and then cheering it on? I bet at least over hundred. Sickening.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Kepler View Post

            Her school district has no idea what is going to happen so they gave them blanket guidance not to rile up the orcs.
            Its almost like what some commenter around here said:

            Originally posted by Pearl Clutching Liberal Teacher Playing Martyr
            Districts would still tell teachers to avoid the subject until this nonsense goes away. Even if you are right this won't be the last time they try and you don't want to be the example they use...
            But that can't be correct....SJHovey said so!
            "It's as if the Drumpf Administration is made up of the worst and unfunny parts of the Cleveland Browns, Washington Generals, and the alien Mon-Stars from Space Jam."
            -aparch

            "Scenes in "Empire Strikes Back" that take place on the tundra planet Hoth were shot on the present-day site of Ralph Engelstad Arena."
            -INCH

            Of course I'm a fan of the Vikings. A sick and demented Masochist of a fan, but a fan none the less.
            -ScoobyDoo 12/17/2007

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Kepler View Post

              EU predicted 60% IINM.

              Is it unprecedented? It sounds like the common cold (except it kills you if you're vaccinated). Is that all colds are? The mutated remains of ancient killer viruses whose morbidity dropped to 0.0 as their transmissibilty approached 1.0?
              WHO I believe said 50% of everyone on earth by end of March. Five months, 4 billion people.
              Code:
              As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
              College Hockey 6       College Football 0
              BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
              Originally posted by SanTropez
              May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
              Originally posted by bigblue_dl
              I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
              Originally posted by Kepler
              When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
              He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Swansong View Post

                Topol doesn't usually underestimate things (most consider him on the alarmist side), but in this case, I would not doubt the EU's projections. I mean it when I say that Omicron will likely be among the most contagious/infectious diseases ever recorded.

                https://www.healthline.com/health/r-...duction-number

                That's from early in the pandemic looking at the OG strain (newer estimates suggest it may have been in the 2-3 range). Omicron's R0 is still being determined, but early estimates are that it is at least 7, if not substantially higher.
                https://vitals.sutterhealth.org/omic...20is%2012%2D18


                For perspective, measles is 12-18. Influenza is .9-2.1.
                https://transportgeography.org/conte...ious-diseases/
                This hasn't been updated recently (newer covid variants are obviously much higher), but it gives you some perspective to compare to other highly infectious diseases.
                Worth noting that the effective R# makes it even crazier. The latent period is so insanely short coupled with the R0 being even a large fraction of measles. It just moves so fast.
                Code:
                As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
                College Hockey 6       College Football 0
                BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
                Originally posted by SanTropez
                May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                Originally posted by Kepler
                When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

                Comment


                • Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post

                  Worth noting that the effective R# makes it even crazier. The latent period is so insanely short coupled with the R0 being even a large fraction of measles. It just moves so fast.
                  Yeah, agreed. I've been trying to stick with R0 vs. Rt, as Rt is tremendously variable and R0 is ... not (heyoooo).
                  I gotta little bit of smoke and a whole lotta wine...

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Kepler View Post

                    That means we still have a week of the death rate climbing, though...
                    I'm also hopeful that it stops in 2 weeks.

                    It will certainly be nice when we can stop talking about the million Americans that will eventually die from this. That's really sad. More sad is how many people have gone out of their way to make sure we clear 1,000,000 dead Americans when this could have likely stopped at somewhere south of 500,000.

                    Comment


                    • So Fauci speak for Pfizer, who speaks for the kids?

                      Fauci says FDA could authorize Pfizer's Covid vaccine for kids under 5 in the next month

                      https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/01/19/...ext-month.html


                      These young kids will need three shots that was formulated for a variant that isn’t even around anymore…

                      To still be going along with this charade, you have to have your head so far up your fucking as*.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Swansong View Post

                        Yeah, agreed. I've been trying to stick with R0 vs. Rt, as Rt is tremendously variable and R0 is ... not (heyoooo).
                        Even with an R0 of 7-12, it's in extremely rarified air and latent period doesn't really matter. It would be like the latent period being 4 hours. When either of those two factors is off the deep end, the whole calculation hits an asymptote and it gets hilariously grim.
                        Code:
                        As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
                        College Hockey 6       College Football 0
                        BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
                        Originally posted by SanTropez
                        May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                        Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                        I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                        Originally posted by Kepler
                        When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                        He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by MichVandal View Post
                          this could have likely stopped at somewhere south of 500,000.
                          I actually wonder sometimes what the reasonable minimum could have been. Say this happened under a competent admin with a congress that still played ball. We know people would have still died. But what would this number have been?
                          • Death #1 was Feb 29, 2020.
                          • A month later it was 1,000 (officially).
                          • By end of May it was 110,000. I don't think any of these deaths were preventable. Even with a competent response.
                          • Between June 1 and November 30, we had another 175,000 deaths. We didn't have a vaccine.
                          • Between December 1, 2020 and March 30, 2021, we added 290,000 deaths. We started to vaccinate the most at risk and those death rates dropped to almost nothing.
                          • THen by 4/1/21, almost everyone was eligible for a vaccine and we've added 305,000 deaths. 90%+ of those were preventable. Easily.

                          But the damage had already been done. None of these numbers include what would have happened if the government treated this like an existential threat like we did after 9/11. If we spent $1T on expanding testing, ventilation, and education, we probably could have avoided even more. Instead, we've got a third of the country that thinks it's a hoax, 20% that are doomers, and 50% that are tired of the first two. We could have had a Japan-like response and cut our deaths by at least half. If you look at New Zealand, you have probably the most competent response and they've only had 52 people die from the measly 15,334 cases. Though, half of those deaths have come since November and >10k of the cases.

                          Anyways.... I'm SWAGing our theoretical minimum was somewhere in the range of 400,000 - 450,000 with a competent administration. With a competent admin and a functional congress, we probably could have cut that to 200,000-250,000.
                          Even with an incompetent federal response but one that simply didn't call it a hoax, we could have saved 300,000 people. Without even doing the math on 2020.
                          Code:
                          As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
                          College Hockey 6       College Football 0
                          BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
                          Originally posted by SanTropez
                          May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                          Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                          I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                          Originally posted by Kepler
                          When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                          He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post

                            I actually wonder sometimes what the reasonable minimum could have been. Say this happened under a competent admin with a congress that still played ball. We know people would have still died. But what would this number have been?
                            • Death #1 was Feb 29, 2020.
                            • A month later it was 1,000 (officially).
                            • By end of May it was 110,000. I don't think any of these deaths were preventable. Even with a competent response.
                            • Between June 1 and November 30, we had another 175,000 deaths. We didn't have a vaccine.
                            • Between December 1, 2020 and March 30, 2021, we added 290,000 deaths. We started to vaccinate the most at risk and those death rates dropped to almost nothing.
                            • THen by 4/1/21, almost everyone was eligible for a vaccine and we've added 305,000 deaths. 90%+ of those were preventable. Easily.

                            But the damage had already been done. None of these numbers include what would have happened if the government treated this like an existential threat like we did after 9/11. If we spent $1T on expanding testing, ventilation, and education, we probably could have avoided even more. Instead, we've got a third of the country that thinks it's a hoax, 20% that are doomers, and 50% that are tired of the first two. We could have had a Japan-like response and cut our deaths by at least half. If you look at New Zealand, you have probably the most competent response and they've only had 52 people die from the measly 15,334 cases. Though, half of those deaths have come since November and >10k of the cases.

                            Anyways.... I'm SWAGing our theoretical minimum was somewhere in the range of 400,000 - 450,000 with a competent administration. With a competent admin and a functional congress, we probably could have cut that to 200,000-250,000.
                            Even with an incompetent federal response but one that simply didn't call it a hoax, we could have saved 300,000 people. Without even doing the math on 2020.
                            So I will admit at being very lazy....

                            But it seems to me that the potential of post May- look at DC. This is mostly a tightly packed area of people, much higher density than most of the country, and it has some of the lowest death rates. I very much remembering pointing that out when the Dakotas caught on fire later in the year. That may be not the best one to look at...

                            Looking at the data- it seems that the area that has the lowest overall death rate is Puerto Rico- where 3,563 died of a population of about 3.2M. If you extrapolate that to the rest of the country, it is just about 370,000 deaths. (have to update a spreadsheet to really model it) And I will say, I know the healthcare system there is not all that great. They did a lot to prevent the spread.

                            There's a lot of ways to model it, but I really think it's safe to say that under 500,000 deaths was very possible had it not been for the massive resistance. Which would also mean the economy would be a lot stronger at this point.

                            Comment


                            • I've thought a lot about this as well. I firmly believe the US (and the world) would be substantially better if Trump wasn't... Trump. But Delta developed in India, based off a UK variant. Omicron was noticed in South Africa (much less knowledge of actual starting point). These likely would still have materialized, but the US may have been much more vaccinated when they did and would have had much better outcomes.

                              I dunno. It's easy to blame the obviously incompetent evil that is Donald Trump, but this has been a truly global pandemic. I don't know how to quantify the improvement from Trump to even Millard Fillmore-level incompetence.
                              I gotta little bit of smoke and a whole lotta wine...

                              Comment


                              • First Boris, now this. It's almost as if the ruling class lacks even a semblance of empathy for their serfs.
                                Cornell University
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