SCOTUS 13: Confirmation consternation contemplation

[bronconick]

Re: SCOTUS 13: Confirmation consternation contemplation

The long game is they got their guy on the Supreme Court forever. I suppose the senate is unlikely to flip but I’m the event that it did, stopping this nomination would’ve been a serious blow.

And I guess we’ll see how Manchin does after ****ing off a large percentage of the women in West Virginia.

So they'll vote for the Republican who probably wants them barefoot and chained to the kitchen?

Have you ever been outside of the liberal northeast?

[Handyman]

Re: SCOTUS 13: Confirmation consternation contemplation

The long game is they got their guy on the Supreme Court forever. I suppose the senate is unlikely to flip but I’m the event that it did, stopping this nomination would’ve been a serious blow.

And I guess we’ll see how Manchin does after ****ing off a large percentage of the women in West Virginia.

You should look into how women in WV vote...it isnt like how women in MN vote. He will win and do so handily. He leads in every poll and now will probably coast to a 10 point victory.

[Handyman]

Re: SCOTUS 13: Confirmation consternation contemplation

Earlier this week we found that Susan Collins led a generic Democrat 42-34 for reelection.

But that if she voted for Kavanaugh, that dropped to a 45-45 tie.

— PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) October 5, 2018

Her advantage of being "the moderate GOPer" died today, and in a state with an I caucusing with D's on the senate, that's probably not going to help him.

That is rather drastic...but generic polling this far out is dicey at best. We can find hundreds of polls in off years that tell us who will win and are never close to being right.

[trixR4kids]

Re: SCOTUS 13: Confirmation consternation contemplation

The long game is they got their guy on the Supreme Court forever. I suppose the senate is unlikely to flip but I’m the event that it did, stopping this nomination would’ve been a serious blow.

And I guess we’ll see how Manchin does after ****ing off a large percentage of the women in West Virginia.

[dxmnkd316]

Re: SCOTUS 13: Confirmation consternation contemplation

Which is why I don't get people saying the Dems "mishandled" the situation. Having gone to the mat for Dr. Ford and exposing Kavanaugh and the rest of the treasonous money laundering cult, what was supposed to be a slam dunk positive for Republicans in Senate contests is now a liability since he's ultimately going to win confirmation. Nelson, Tester, McCaskill, and Donnelly all got to cast a much easier vote and Manchin probably put his race away. Yes Heitkamp is worse off but that may have been inevitable while this further throws dirt on Dean Heller's political grave.

Beyond that though, think of the long game here. Goopers were always going to get someone with Kavanaugh's views on issues on the court. The trick is to maximize legitimate outrage over this to take over the House and state level races this year while holding your own in the Senate. Then come back in 2020 and take the Senate and WH with big targets on Gardner, Collins and Ernst if Iowa swings back left.

100% dead on.

Especially that second paragraph.

[Handyman]

Re: SCOTUS 13: Confirmation consternation contemplation

I don't entirely agree. That would be true if the attention on Kav turns elsewhere now, which I doubt it will, since he'll be seated in time to have a hand in some upcoming opinions. Plus Avenatti won't be going quietly into the night, and that could get very ugly.

I dont think he will have a chance to do any damage before November otherwise I would agree with you. He got confirmed which means all of the people upset over how he was treated can now relax. They got what they wanted.

For 2020 you are right, but I care about the midterms right now and my guess is that in two weeks all the races that supposedly tightened over this will regress back to where they were before. That will most likely keep the Senate where it was and flip the House. Locally I dont know because I can only speak for MN and it would seem Klobuchar and Smith will be the Senators and it looks like Lewis is going down in flames. Tim Walz leads Johnson in every poll for Governor right now and I doubt that changes.

[bronconick]

Re: SCOTUS 13: Confirmation consternation contemplation

Earlier this week we found that Susan Collins led a generic Democrat 42-34 for reelection.

But that if she voted for Kavanaugh, that dropped to a 45-45 tie.

— PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) October 5, 2018

Her advantage of being "the moderate GOPer" died today, and in a state with an I caucusing with D's on the senate, that's probably not going to help him.

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Re: SCOTUS 13: Confirmation consternation contemplation

Kavanaugh helping the GOP has peaked.

I don't entirely agree. That would be true if the attention on Kav turns elsewhere now, which I doubt it will, since he'll be seated in time to have a hand in some upcoming opinions. Plus Avenatti won't be going quietly into the night, and that could get very ugly.

[Rover]

Re: SCOTUS 13: Confirmation consternation contemplation

Yeah this killed any chance they had of taking that seat.

Well the Dems have a month to use this to keep their base engaged. Kavanaugh helping the GOP has peaked.

Which is why I don't get people saying the Dems "mishandled" the situation. Having gone to the mat for Dr. Ford and exposing Kavanaugh and the rest of the treasonous money laundering cult, what was supposed to be a slam dunk positive for Republicans in Senate contests is now a liability since he's ultimately going to win confirmation. Nelson, Tester, McCaskill, and Donnelly all got to cast a much easier vote and Manchin probably put his race away. Yes Heitkamp is worse off but that may have been inevitable while this further throws dirt on Dean Heller's political grave.

Beyond that though, think of the long game here. Goopers were always going to get someone with Kavanaugh's views on issues on the court. The trick is to maximize legitimate outrage over this to take over the House and state level races this year while holding your own in the Senate. Then come back in 2020 and take the Senate and WH with big targets on Gardner, Collins and Ernst if Iowa swings back left.

[Handyman]

Re: SCOTUS 13: Confirmation consternation contemplation

I will say, I think in this one instance, Murkowski was voting what she believed. I think she found him unfit and didnt want to confirm him. I think Collins was going yes no matter what and it was all up to Flake. Manchin would not have been #50 so his vote was based on what Flake did as well.

Normally I would want Manchin ousted but for now he is needed in the Senate as a Dem. His status though needs to be severely diminished (if he has any) and I doubt he gets any good appointments going forward. Even if he got Schumers blessing leadership will always remember.

Thankfully, as a white male, my time in the sun has arrived!

[First Time, Long Time]

Thank you Senator Collins for not letting out of state money influence you.

**** You troll boy.

[Handyman]

I figured as much when Manchin was allowed to vote AFTER Collins and Flake declared. If you were trying to screw him, as I'm sure Itch would have liked to do, you'd make him vote when it was still up in the air. Manchin is in regular contact with Chump and they've been talking on this issue over the last few days according to Manchin himself. I suspect for the benefit of having 1 Dem vote Chump told Itch to F off and allow Manchin to pull his little Hamlet act. Works out for him but if I was the GOP nominee in West Virginia I'd be pretty PO'd right now.

Yeah this killed any chance they had of taking that seat.

Well the Dems have a month to use this to keep their base engaged. Kavanaugh helping the GOP has peaked.

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Re: SCOTUS 13: Confirmation consternation contemplation

Thank you Senator Collins for not letting out of state money influence you.

You don't even live in Maine anymore, why do you give a sh*t about "out of state" money?

Plus, I'm sure no outside Republican benefactors threatened to pull their contributions if she didn't do this.

[Spartanforlife4]

Thank you Senator Collins for not letting out of state money influence you.

You don't even live in Maine, right?

[Handyman]

Those three worked this all out days ago.

Agreed.