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The British Parliamentary election of June 8. Will she stay or go?

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  • #91
    Re: The British Parliamentary election of June 8. Will she stay or go?

    Originally posted by Kepler View Post
    Great question. Ignoring the ripple effect of what an earlier change would do downstream (guessing who the nominees would have been if we reverted beginning with election x), here are my guesses since the big change post-1968. * - Asterisks is a change. Bold -- my predicted winner.

    Code:
    Yr Dem              GOP
    72 Humphrey*        Nixon
    76 Kennedy*         Ford
    80 Carter           GHW Bush*
    84 Mondale          Reagan
    88 Bentsen*         GHW Bush
    92 Kerrey*          GHW Bush
    96 B Clinton        Dole
    00 Gore             Danforth*
    04 Gephardt*        GW Bush
    08 H Clinton*       McCain
    12 Obama            Romney
    16 H Clinton        J Bush*
    Is GHW Bush eligible for a 3rd term?? If so, I know who the Ds are running in 2020.
    CCT '77 & '78
    4 kids
    5 grandsons (BCA 7/09, CJA 5/14, JDL 8/14, JFL 6/16, PJL 7/18)
    1 granddaughter (EML 4/18)

    ”Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both.”
    - Benjamin Franklin

    Banned from the St. Lawrence University Facebook page - March 2016 (But I got better).

    I want to live forever. So far, so good.

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    • #92
      Re: The British Parliamentary election of June 8. Will she stay or go?

      Originally posted by joecct View Post
      Is GHW Bush eligible for a 3rd term?? If so, I know who the Ds are running in 2020.
      It's not a third term. Remember, each election is considered the start of the return to smoke filled rooms, otherwise you'd have to make predictions about the administrations of alt-choices and that's too hard. Bush gets renominated in '92 because he's only had one term at that point. That he would have won in '80 is irrelevant in '92 (or '88) because the point of departure from the timeline for year x is x, not before x.

      Likewise, Obama can't run in '20* for the reason that he can't in OTL -- he's had his 2 terms.

      Bush wins the floor battle in '80 because the RNC knows trickle down is snake oil, so Reagan is shut down same as '76 by Ford in OTL. Reagan never gets the chance to muscle in on the Orange County money and put his own fix in because the primaries are still just beauty contests so nobody cares that he wins there.

      I am assuming that every incumbent with remaining eligibility is always re-upped, because the CW was incumbency is such an enormous advantage (something that may not still be true).

      * The really interesting question for this analysis is this: would Hillary be the smokefilled room nominee in '20? She might. Her people are the termites infesting the entire Democratic party structure at every level. Without the public oversight of the primary system she could easily have enough heft to put us all through it again.
      Last edited by Kepler; 06-12-2017, 01:02 PM.
      Cornell University
      National Champion 1967, 1970
      ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
      Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

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      • #93
        Re: The British Parliamentary election of June 8. Will she stay or go?

        Originally posted by Kepler View Post
        It's not a third term. Remember, each election is considered the start of the return to smoke filled rooms, otherwise you'd have to make predictions about the administrations of alt-choices and that's too hard. So Obama can't run in '20 for the reason that he can't in OTL -- he's had his 2 terms.

        Bush wins the floor battle in '80 because the RNC knows trickle down is snake oil, so Reagan is shut down same as '76.

        Reagan never gets the chance to muscle in on the Orange County money and put his own fix in because the primaries are still just beauty contests so nobody cares that he wins there. (Same goes for Clinton in 92).

        I am assuming that every incumbent with remaining eligibility is always re-upped, because the CW was incumbency is such an enormous advantage (something that may not still be true).
        Color me confused - 80, 88, 92. Isn't that 3 terms??
        CCT '77 & '78
        4 kids
        5 grandsons (BCA 7/09, CJA 5/14, JDL 8/14, JFL 6/16, PJL 7/18)
        1 granddaughter (EML 4/18)

        ”Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both.”
        - Benjamin Franklin

        Banned from the St. Lawrence University Facebook page - March 2016 (But I got better).

        I want to live forever. So far, so good.

        Comment


        • #94
          Re: The British Parliamentary election of June 8. Will she stay or go?

          Originally posted by joecct View Post
          Color me confused - 80, 88, 92. Isn't that 3 terms??
          He lost the 80 primary bid. That returns him to a zero-count come 88.
          "The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." George Orwell, 1984

          "One does not simply walk into Mordor. Its Black Gates are guarded by more than just Orcs. There is evil there that does not sleep, and the Great Eye is ever watchful. It is a barren wasteland, riddled with fire and ash and dust, the very air you breathe is a poisonous fume." Boromir

          "Good news! We have a delivery." Professor Farnsworth

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          • #95
            Originally posted by joecct View Post
            Color me confused - 80, 88, 92. Isn't that 3 terms??
            Kepler's output had each election independent of all others. The 88 and 92 elections are based on what happened at the start of the actual cycle, not what would've happened based on earlier cycles. That's why Reagan is still in for 84, too.

            In other words, don't look at what he predicts for 80 to affect his predictions for 84, 88, or any subsequent years. View them all as independent.

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            • #96
              Re: The British Parliamentary election of June 8. Will she stay or go?

              Originally posted by unofan View Post
              Kepler's output had each election independent of all others. The 88 and 92 elections are based on what happened at the start of the actual cycle, not what would've happened based on earlier cycles. That's why Reagan is still in for 84, too.

              In other words, don't look at what he predicts for 80 to affect his predictions for 84, 88, or any subsequent years. View them all as independent.
              Correct. That's what I was trying to say.

              That is not a map of a single alt timeline. It's a list of what would happen if each election was the departure point from OTL. You could do maps of each alt timeline, but especially for the early ones it would quickly evaporate into nested what ifs. e.g., if Kennedy wins in 76 does he f-ck up as bad as Carter, and if not then he's an incumbent with huge party power going up against a GOP still tainted by Watergate, so does he win again under circumstances 90% different from OTL 80? That's just too many what ifs for me.
              Cornell University
              National Champion 1967, 1970
              ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
              Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

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              • #97
                Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
                So do you think Romney was the sacrificial lamb?
                Yes. Do you remember that Republican field from 2012?

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                • #98
                  Re: The British Parliamentary election of June 8. Will she stay or go?

                  Somebody is getting sacked and it could be Mrs. May.

                  https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...enfell-victims
                  CCT '77 & '78
                  4 kids
                  5 grandsons (BCA 7/09, CJA 5/14, JDL 8/14, JFL 6/16, PJL 7/18)
                  1 granddaughter (EML 4/18)

                  ”Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both.”
                  - Benjamin Franklin

                  Banned from the St. Lawrence University Facebook page - March 2016 (But I got better).

                  I want to live forever. So far, so good.

                  Comment

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