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Minnesotans Arguing About the Weather III: Storm's a comin'

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  • Re: Minnesotans Arguing About the Weather III: Storm's a comin'

    Changed to sleet around midnight that held the totals down.

    3" of frozen slush with an icy glaze of about 0.1"
    Last edited by joecct; 03-14-2017, 01:56 PM.
    CCT '77 & '78
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    ”Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both.”
    - Benjamin Franklin

    Banned from the St. Lawrence University Facebook page - March 2016 (But I got better).

    I want to live forever. So far, so good.

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    • Re: Minnesotans Arguing About the Weather III: Storm's a comin'

      Originally posted by St. Clown View Post
      Tell that to Maine.
      We have nothing so far
      I swear there ain't no heaven but I pray there ain't no hell.

      Maine Hockey Love it or Leave it

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      • Re: Minnesotans Arguing About the Weather III: Storm's a comin'

        Originally posted by walrus View Post
        We have nothing so far
        Oops. Saw your post from 02-14, misread it as 03-14.
        "The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." George Orwell, 1984

        "One does not simply walk into Mordor. Its Black Gates are guarded by more than just Orcs. There is evil there that does not sleep, and the Great Eye is ever watchful. It is a barren wasteland, riddled with fire and ash and dust, the very air you breathe is a poisonous fume." Boromir

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        • Re: Minnesotans Arguing About the Weather III: Storm's a comin'

          Originally posted by St. Clown View Post
          Oops. Saw your post from 02-14, misread it as 03-14.
          we got hammered that storm but today the temps are rising, we are going to get a changeover to rain. They are still saying 12 18 here but I don't believe them, temps almost up to 30 now with very light snow.
          I swear there ain't no heaven but I pray there ain't no hell.

          Maine Hockey Love it or Leave it

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          • Re: Minnesotans Arguing About the Weather III: Storm's a comin'

            I saw that NH closed its state liquor stores.

            The storm must be really bad up there.
            CCT '77 & '78
            4 kids
            5 grandsons (BCA 7/09, CJA 5/14, JDL 8/14, JFL 6/16, PJL 7/18)
            1 granddaughter (EML 4/18)

            ”Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both.”
            - Benjamin Franklin

            Banned from the St. Lawrence University Facebook page - March 2016 (But I got better).

            I want to live forever. So far, so good.

            Comment


            • Re: Minnesotans Arguing About the Weather III: Storm's a comin'

              Its crazy out, We had little snow at 4 pm, looks to be over a foot now. The wind is howling and it looks to be changing over to wet snow, probably rain. My wife got stuck in work parking lot, she was livid but they got her out. She finally made it to her moms about 1 mile from work. Tomorrow morning shoveling is going to suck
              I swear there ain't no heaven but I pray there ain't no hell.

              Maine Hockey Love it or Leave it

              Comment


              • Re: Minnesotans Arguing About the Weather III: Storm's a comin'

                Wow. The National Weather Service forecasting models on Monday indicated that far less snow would fall in NY City than they had predicted the day before, and they withheld this information from the public!

                I know a producer for CBS News, and he confirmed this story for me, so that even if you don't like this one source, there are other sources out there reporting the same thing (e.g., citation from Associated Press in the excerpt).

                On the eve of Tuesday’s Winter Storm Stella, the National Weather Service got reports that its dire prediction of up to 2 feet of snow for New York City may have been exaggerated — but decided not to change its forecast.....in the end, only about 7 inches fell in Central Park.

                After announcing that snow could reach record levels in the city, NWS meteorologists in New York and other Northeast cities held a conference call Monday afternoon about computer models that dramatically cut predicted totals.

                But they decided to continue forecasting deep snow, claiming that they didn’t change their forecast for fear people would mistakenly think the storm was no longer dangerous.

                “Out of extreme caution, we decided to stick with higher amounts,” Greg Carbin, chief of forecast operations at the Weather Prediction Center in Maryland, told the Associated Press.

                and they never once considered how this inaction might affect their future credibility???




                and how stupid do they think people are?? everyone knows how to respond to a forecast for 7" of snow. Everyone knows that would still be quite problematic.


                Not only that, but snow removal equipment, emergency services, commuter railroads, other state and local government agencies, were all deploying their resources based on the original prediction, and likely would have made different decisions had they been given accurate information.
                Last edited by FreshFish; 03-16-2017, 09:56 AM.
                "Hope is a good thing; maybe the best of things."

                "Beer is a sign that God loves us and wants us to be happy." -- Benjamin Franklin

                "Being Irish, he had an abiding sense of tragedy, which sustained him through temporary periods of joy." -- W. B. Yeats

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                • Re: Minnesotans Arguing About the Weather III: Storm's a comin'

                  Originally posted by FreshFish View Post
                  Wow. The National Weather Service forecasting models on Monday indicated that far less snow would fall in NY City than they had predicted the day before, and they withheld this information from the public!

                  I know a producer for CBS News, and he confirmed this story for me, so that even if you don't like this one source, there are other sources out there reporting the same thing (e.g., citation from Associated Press in the excerpt).




                  and they never once considered how this inaction might affect their future credibility???




                  and how stupid do they think people are?? everyone knows how to respond to a forecast for 7" of snow. Everyone knows that would still be quite problematic.


                  Not only that, but snow removal equipment, emergency services, commuter railroads, other state and local government agencies, were all deploying their resources based on the original prediction, and likely would have made different decisions had they been given accurate information.
                  Weather coverage creates ratings. That's why your routine, yet "heavy" storms you routinely see 1-2 times per year get treated like the Snowpacalypse. It sucks, but most people are stupid when it comes to weather. They believe what the talking heads say.
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                  • Re: Minnesotans Arguing About the Weather III: Storm's a comin'

                    Also, and this was admitted this week by the local weather terrorist, they would rather over estimate. Why? Would you rather expect an inch of snow and get 8? Or expect 8 and get 1?
                    Never really developed a taste for tequila. Kind of hard to understand how you make a drink out of something that sharp, inhospitable. Now, bourbon is easy to understand.
                    Tastes like a warm summer day. -Raylan Givens

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                    • Re: Minnesotans Arguing About the Weather III: Storm's a comin'

                      Originally posted by Brenthoven View Post
                      Also, and this was admitted this week by the local weather terrorist, they would rather over estimate. Why? Would you rather expect an inch of snow and get 8? Or expect 8 and get 1?
                      Sure, and I "get" that if you are only talking about one locality...but even here, the forecast would still have been 6"-8" instead of 18". That is still a pretty heavy storm.

                      More significantly in this case, however, the shift in the model that had far less snow falling along the coast also had even more snow falling inland. For NY state, that means that they had too much equipment in one place, while another part of the state got hit with 30" (instead of 18") and there wasn't nearly enough equipment there. So they spent half a day moving equipment around when they could have been moving it ahead of time had the NWS released the revised forecast that they kept secret.

                      The commuter railroad shut down entirely to protect against snow that never fell, stranding thousands.



                      Finally, and this is the most important element: future credibility. How can they reasonably expect people to believe them in the future if they tell people they are knowingly providing false forecasts?
                      Last edited by FreshFish; 03-17-2017, 08:10 AM.
                      "Hope is a good thing; maybe the best of things."

                      "Beer is a sign that God loves us and wants us to be happy." -- Benjamin Franklin

                      "Being Irish, he had an abiding sense of tragedy, which sustained him through temporary periods of joy." -- W. B. Yeats

                      "People generally are most impatient with those flaws in others about which they are most ashamed of in themselves." - folk wisdom

                      Comment


                      • Re: Minnesotans Arguing About the Weather III: Storm's a comin'

                        Normally I defend the meteorologists, but I think fresh fish has a point here. The inland people didn't get that same warning and shutting down rail services is a big deal.
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                        Originally posted by SanTropez
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                        Originally posted by bigblue_dl
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                        Originally posted by Kepler
                        When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
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                        • Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
                          Normally I defend the meteorologists, but I think fresh fish has a point here. The inland people didn't get that same warning and shutting down rail services is a big deal.
                          It really depends on if the models had a new consensus or if it was just the latest run. Although the most recent run is usually the most correct, it isn't in 100% of cases. Imagine if they had lowered the forecast and then been wrong to change it?

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                          • Re: Minnesotans Arguing About the Weather III: Storm's a comin'

                            Very true.
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                            As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
                            College Hockey 6       College Football 0
                            BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
                            Originally posted by SanTropez
                            May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                            Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                            I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                            Originally posted by Kepler
                            When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                            He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

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                            • Re: Minnesotans Arguing About the Weather III: Storm's a comin'

                              NWS says 6-12" of snow in Denver area tonight into tomorrow.

                              Wonder what that will hold for the Midwest on Sunday-Monday?

                              https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.ec8162bc24d7
                              CCT '77 & '78
                              4 kids
                              5 grandsons (BCA 7/09, CJA 5/14, JDL 8/14, JFL 6/16, PJL 7/18)
                              1 granddaughter (EML 4/18)

                              ”Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both.”
                              - Benjamin Franklin

                              Banned from the St. Lawrence University Facebook page - March 2016 (But I got better).

                              I want to live forever. So far, so good.

                              Comment


                              • Re: Minnesotans Arguing About the Weather III: Storm's a comin'

                                We're hearing rumors of up to 3" but the weather terrorists are really holding back. "POSSIBLY MAYBE SORTA WORST CASE" terminology. Most expect some slush at most in the Twin Cities.
                                Never really developed a taste for tequila. Kind of hard to understand how you make a drink out of something that sharp, inhospitable. Now, bourbon is easy to understand.
                                Tastes like a warm summer day. -Raylan Givens

                                Comment

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