Presidential Election Prediction Thread

[mookie1995]

Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

Even if we allocated all of a states electorates to the winner of the overall popular vote in the presidential election, the smaller states would still be "over represented" as the ratio of senator/congress to population as compared to the larger states.

again, that is the way we were founded. a collection of united states. the founders wanted to guarantee that states were represented. we are not a country like france.

aren't we special? unique?

this is how we roll.

[mookie1995]

Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

Would it work for mookie if a popular vote for president was the founders wanted? Per wiki:

"Some delegates, including James Wilson and James Madison, preferred popular election of the executive. Madison acknowledged that while a popular vote would be ideal, it would be difficult to get consensus on the proposal given the prevalence of slavery in the South"

Playing hardball in the 18th century has worked out quite well for the south in the 21st century.

maybe. mookie just thinks that it works.

if we go to national popular, is there a further use of the primary season? why bother giving iowa and new hampshire the first cut? just have a national primary then in august before the convention (or after perhaps. let everyone get their time then to make a case)? then use sept and oct to runoff the general national election.

cut the season down. remove the need for billions of dollars spent.

mookie don't know.... but it would have consequences. because there truly would be NO need to have these stupid state staggered primaries.

[5mn_Major]

Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

maybe. mookie just thinks that it works.

if we go to national popular, is there a further use of the primary season? why bother giving iowa and new hampshire the first cut? just have a national primary then in august before the convention (or after perhaps. let everyone get their time then to make a case)? then use sept and oct to runoff the general national election.

cut the season down. remove the need for billions of dollars spent.

mookie don't know.... but it would have consequences. because there truly would be NO need to have these stupid state staggered primaries.

Good question. I guess so. The primaries purpose is to select the nominee of each party with the added feature that there are electors from each state. I suppose you could just have three big national votes...one for each nominee, one for the president.

[ericredaxe]

Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

maybe. mookie just thinks that it works.

if we go to national popular, is there a further use of the primary season? why bother giving iowa and new hampshire the first cut? just have a national primary then in august before the convention (or after perhaps. let everyone get their time then to make a case)? then use sept and oct to runoff the general national election.

cut the season down. remove the need for billions of dollars spent.

mookie don't know.... but it would have consequences. because there truly would be NO need to have these stupid state staggered primaries.

I completely think there should be a one day national primary. Really why should a somewhat obscure state like Iowa have such an impact on who the next president might or might not be?

[ericredaxe]

Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

again, that is the way we were founded. a collection of united states. the founders wanted to guarantee that states were represented. we are not a country like france.

aren't we special? unique?

this is how we roll.

I understand this is how we were founded, but the United States is very different today than it was in the 1700's is it not? There is no harm in adapting and tweaking the structure.

[SJHovey]

Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

If people think think living in Wyoming gives you more representative power, and that concerns them, nothing prohibits those people from moving there.

[ericredaxe]

Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

If people think think living in Wyoming gives you more representative power, and that concerns them, nothing prohibits those people from moving there.

On the flip side would there be any negative to people in States like California, New York, Massachusetts etc if Wyoming were somehow not even a part of the nation?

[SJHovey]

On the flip side would there be any negative to people in States like California, New York, Massachusetts etc if Wyoming were somehow not even a part of the nation?

I'm personally a big fan of Yellowstone and the Tetons, but everyone may not agree.

[ericredaxe]

Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

I'm personally a big fan of Yellowstone and the Tetons, but everyone may not agree.

So if it were its own country, you could still go visit... you would just need a passport.

[5mn_Major]

Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

If people think think living in Wyoming gives you more representative power, and that concerns them, nothing prohibits those people from moving there.

Nothing. But is that the best form of government?

It reminds me of Iraq. Hussein didn't do what we wanted him to. So it was like we were forced to invade regardless of whether it was in our best interest or not. I guess we have to invade cause he didn't do what we asked him to...we have no choice.

[SJHovey]

Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

We are and always have been a republic of states. It's why we recognize the right of some states to implement the death penalty while others don't. The Electoral College is a result of that form of government.

I have yet to see smart government decisions made when they are driven by the possibility that if we just did it differently the advantage would switch to me. In 2020 it might be Trump who wins the popular vote and Warren the Electoral.

[Slap Shot]

Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

If people think think living in Wyoming gives you more representative power, and that concerns them, nothing prohibits those people from moving there.

What a petty and childish way of thinking. i'm sure you never admonish celebrities that whine about moving to Canada when elections don't go their way?

[joecct]

The 1790 census numbers:
Massachusetts 378,787
New Hampshire 141,885
Rhode Island 68,825
Connecticut 237,946
New York 340,120
New Jersey 184,139
Pennsylvania 434,373
Delaware 59,096
Maryland 319,728
Virginia 691,737
North Carolina 393,751
South Carolina 249,073
Georgia 82,548

They had just under 12x at the time.

Count the slaves as a 1 instead of 60%, the difference should be more than 12x.

[joecct]

I completely think there should be a one day national primary. Really why should a somewhat obscure state like Iowa have such an impact on who the next president might or might not be?

Media advertising revenue??

[Kepler]

Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

and Warren the Electoral.

Kamala Harris. And she'll win the EC and the PV.