Presidential Election Prediction Thread

[joecct]

I haven't had a chance to check this either. But I've heard that if you eliminate the deep south, Clinton wins in a major landslide.

Eliminate the coasts and Trump wins in a walk.

Hmmm.. Maybe there is a method to his stance on climate change...

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

I haven't had a chance to check this either. But I've heard that if you eliminate the deep south, Clinton wins in a major landslide.

I've been saying on this board for years that the wrong army won the civil war. This election proves it.

[FreshFish]

Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

See that's the problem with the electoral college though. Just as you're doing, if they live in x location...they kind of don't count. Believe me, people in CA, NY, IL, TX are already paying. Their votes don't count. Because only swing states count. Additionally, those states are double penalized. Because of the electoral system small states like WY and AK get more representation than big states on an impact on the electoral college.

So while you're trying to downplay the impact of these voters because of where they live (which I would argue doesn't make much sense)...they're already getting a diminished amount of electoral votes in regions of the map that have no impact on choosing the president.

What you see as a problem was intended by the Founders to be a feature.

The Electoral College was specifically designed to make sure that a person had broad-based national support to become President of the entire nation. You might disagree but that is what they intended. They were obsessively concerned about factions and about demagogues. They did not want a few concentrated population centers to be able to dominate national politics.

It is the same reason that each state has two Senators regardless of population. To protect minorities from the tyranny of the majority.



PS an odd choice of words for you, "downplay." It was purely descriptive: here are numbers. By design I repressed my urge to add spurious commentary, so that the numbers would stand alone all by themselves as pure data points.

[joecct]

See that's the problem with the electoral college though. Just as you're doing, if they live in x location...they kind of don't count. Believe me, people in CA, NY, IL, TX are already paying. Their votes don't count. Because only swing states count. Additionally, those states are double penalized. Because of the electoral system small states like WY and AK get more representation than big states on an impact on the electoral college.

So while you're trying to downplay the impact of these voters because of where they live (which I would argue doesn't make much sense)...they're already getting a diminished amount of electoral votes in regions of the map that have no impact on choosing the president.

I live in MD. The last time my vote counted towards the Electoral College was 1984. It is what it is.

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

I've been saying on this board for years that the wrong army won the civil war. This election proves it.

The Civil War was fabricated by the Rothschild brothers (at the time), and actually had a lot to do with banking, as well as slavery. With two "more manageable" countries, they'd be easier to take over. Obviously they scored a huge victory in 1913. Now people are waking up and starting to want to dump centralization.

[unofan]

How does 3+3 get more weight than 55?

Because Wyoming has about 150k people per electoral vote, while California it's more like 500k.

[mookie1995]

Because Wyoming has about 150k people per electoral vote, while California it's more like 500k.

Not wyomings fault

[The Sicatoka]

Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

Because Wyoming has about 150k people per electoral vote, while California it's more like 500k.

Like I posted somewhere around here we were about 125,000 votes (in MI, WI, AZ total) from 269-269.

Imagine the confusion/faux rage/furor when the House has 50 votes (States) for 435 members.

[unofan]

Not wyomings fault

Ok. But they are still overrepresented.

[mookie1995]

Ok. But they are still overrepresented.

Somehow that may have been the founders intent. To allow a somewhat equal representation of the states. No?

To want something else is to not want the united states of america

[unofan]

Somehow that may have been the founders intent. To allow a somewhat equal representation of the states. No?

To want something else is to not want the united states of america

Do you think the founders envisioned a country where one state is literally 65x bigger than the smallest in terms of population?

[unofan]

Right, if you only count the Northeast and the west coast, that is certainly true.

Here is a great website for voter turnout data: http://www.electproject.org/home/vot...r-turnout-data

It leads you to state websites.

IL had no link.
CA: HRC 5.6 million, DJT 3.0 million
NY: HRC 4.1 million, DJT 2.6 million
For those two states, because of rounding, HRC 9.7 million, DJT 5.7 million. or 4.0 million more.

Nationally: HRC 60.3 million, DJT 59.9 million. or 0.4 million less. So even if you look only at NY and CA, then in the rest of the country Trump has 3.6 million more votes.

You mean if you ignore the votes of 20% of the population, you'll get different results? No shiat, Sherlock.

[The Sicatoka]

Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

Do you think the founders envisioned a country where one state is literally 65x bigger than the smallest in terms of population?

The 1790 census numbers:
Massachusetts 378,787
New Hampshire 141,885
Rhode Island 68,825
Connecticut 237,946
New York 340,120
New Jersey 184,139
Pennsylvania 434,373
Delaware 59,096
Maryland 319,728
Virginia 691,737
North Carolina 393,751
South Carolina 249,073
Georgia 82,548

They had just under 12x at the time.

[unofan]

The 1790 census numbers:
Massachusetts 378,787
New Hampshire 141,885
Rhode Island 68,825
Connecticut 237,946
New York 340,120
New Jersey 184,139
Pennsylvania 434,373
Delaware 59,096
Maryland 319,728
Virginia 691,737
North Carolina 393,751
South Carolina 249,073
Georgia 82,548

They had just under 12x at the time.

So the difference today is higher by a factor of five. That's not insignificant.

[The Sicatoka]

Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

So the difference today is higher by a factor of five. That's not insignificant.

I'm just data reporting with that. I really had no idea. I guess the 12x doesn't surprise me. It should show that they realized there'd be differences (VA v. DE).