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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIX: Escape from the Planet of Debates
538 does a good job describing what their models predict in the battleground states if the national polling of D+3 to D+5 is correct. That the battleground polls do agree with their model is fine for them, but one important result is that NV is finally starting to "behave" now that the better polls are starting to come in. Hitherto, NV has been polling as much more red than one would predict from demographics, and nobody had a very good theoretical reason for this (i.e., why only NV?). With NV results seemingly starting to collapse towards expectation that could potentially remove a warning sign that this election is different enough that the modeling is missing something important. It could still be, of course.
There are two other trends I have noticed in the state polls (not addressed in this piece) that I'd like an explanation for:
(1) Why is IA leaning so red? I would have expected this if the GOP nom was heavily religious but the Chrome Cretin is about as irreligious as any GOP candidate could be.
(2) Why are OH and PA moving in opposite directions relative to expectations, with PA significantly bluer and OH significantly redder than expected? If the reason for the former is the density of under-educated,under-employed whites, why isn't that also giving Trump a boost in PA? In prior elections these two have trended as one (albeit with OH starting a little redder), but this time they have decoupled. Why? What changed in just 4 years? I can't think of any particular reason for either state to have animus against or affection for any of the four on the major tickets. The only near native son, Pence, I would think would affect them equally.
538 does a good job describing what their models predict in the battleground states if the national polling of D+3 to D+5 is correct. That the battleground polls do agree with their model is fine for them, but one important result is that NV is finally starting to "behave" now that the better polls are starting to come in. Hitherto, NV has been polling as much more red than one would predict from demographics, and nobody had a very good theoretical reason for this (i.e., why only NV?). With NV results seemingly starting to collapse towards expectation that could potentially remove a warning sign that this election is different enough that the modeling is missing something important. It could still be, of course.
There are two other trends I have noticed in the state polls (not addressed in this piece) that I'd like an explanation for:
(1) Why is IA leaning so red? I would have expected this if the GOP nom was heavily religious but the Chrome Cretin is about as irreligious as any GOP candidate could be.
(2) Why are OH and PA moving in opposite directions relative to expectations, with PA significantly bluer and OH significantly redder than expected? If the reason for the former is the density of under-educated,under-employed whites, why isn't that also giving Trump a boost in PA? In prior elections these two have trended as one (albeit with OH starting a little redder), but this time they have decoupled. Why? What changed in just 4 years? I can't think of any particular reason for either state to have animus against or affection for any of the four on the major tickets. The only near native son, Pence, I would think would affect them equally.
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