Campaign 2016 Part XIX: Escape from the Planet of Debates

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIX: Escape from the Planet of Debates

So...you go out searching for bad news and then post something when you find it?

Sigh. No, Rover. I went looking for a poll and that's the first one I hit. Trump's 55ness isn't the main takeaway from that poll -- it's that his number is above 29 or so. That's the point of the poll -- the fact that after watching that debate Trump is even in the discussion, let alone in the lead.

I gotta say, man, your ad hom stuff is really getting on my nerves. Handy's post is "blather" and I'm "bedwetting" because we don't 100% agree with your Kellyanne Conway "I'm with Her" hot takes? Even Flag is more polite than you these days. Check yourself.

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIX: Escape from the Planet of Debates

Maybe Drumpf is Senile?

I also saw where Dan Rather said calling Drumpf a con-man is a disservice to the art of the con"

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIX: Escape from the Planet of Debates

Sigh. No, Rover. I went looking for a poll and that's the first one I hit. Trump's 55ness isn't the main takeaway from that poll -- it's that his number is above 29 or so. That's the point of the poll -- the fact that after watching that debate Trump is even in the discussion, let alone in the lead.

I gotta say, man, your ad hom stuff is really getting on my nerves. Handy's post is "blather" and I'm "bedwetting" because we don't 100% agree with your Kellyanne Conway "I'm with Her" hot takes? Even Flag is more polite than you these days. Check yourself.

Hey now...Scooby is blather...Rover is agreeing with me these days

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIX: Escape from the Planet of Debates

Sigh. No, Rover. I went looking for a poll and that's the first one I hit. Trump's 55ness isn't the main takeaway from that poll -- it's that his number is above 29 or so. That's the point of the poll -- the fact that after watching that debate Trump is even in the discussion, let alone in the lead.

I gotta say, man, your ad hom stuff is really getting on my nerves. Handy's post is "blather" and I'm "bedwetting" because we don't 100% agree with your Kellyanne Conway "I'm with Her" hot takes? Even Flag is more polite than you these days. Check yourself.

Kep, as your internet friend I'm doing you a service. As Daniel Webster once said, "I'd rather speak of true rather than pleasing things. I'd of course like to please you, but I'd prefer to save you, whatever be your attitude towards me", or something like that. Been a long time since I read his biography.

But the constant sky is falling shtick is beneath you and a waste of your abilities. So, reassure yourself with a couple of thoughts:

1) You have to get past the notion that Trump should be losing by 30 points. Hapless John McCain ran as an extension of GWB's 3rd term in the middle of the disaster of the Iraq War and the worst recession in living memory (for most people)....and he still got 45% of the vote. That's just where people who are either in their 60's and 70's or uneducated are at.

2) Trump has gone nowhere in moving outside of his core supporters. He cannot win this race on the backs of uneducated whites. They just aren't that much of the population (36% in 2012). He's consistently losing educated people and non-whites. These two groups probably make up 65% of the 2016 electorate at least. They're also the segments that are gaining each cycle.

So take a deep breath and stop googling "Trump won". He lost, badly, and he's running out of time to do anything to change his fate.

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIX: Escape from the Planet of Debates

Posting about the actual tightness of the polling is not a "sky is falling" act. It's data.

She is ahead and I think she's going to win, but I would REALLY like to get some godd-mn insurance runs because when you let a crappy opponent hang around bad stuff can happen.

[French Rage]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIX: Escape from the Planet of Debates

Oh snap: http://www.mediaite.com/tv/megyn-kel...&ICID=ref_fark

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIX: Escape from the Planet of Debates

Every woman who sees this ad will vote.

I saw that this morning and thought it was more impactful than even the ad with the line, "And you can tell them to go **ck themselves." The GFYS ad made me stop what I was doing and watch it through. The Mirrors ad was hard to watch.

Dr. Mrs. pointed out some thing interesting as we were watching last night. According to her, Trump's constant interruptions (23-4 IINM) will trigger an association in every woman's brain of THAT GUY who blusters and interrupts and mansplains. The experience of THAT GUY is universal among women, regardless of their background -- they meet him in school and business and especially in dating. THAT GUY is, after an actual physical abuser, the most hated person on the face of the Earth. And Trump is THAT GUY.

She said it's not so much that it makes the voting decision easier but that it will motivate women to get to the polls. Essentially it's like black people watching a Klansman get the nomination. Nothing's going to stop them from voting.

That's what I'm hearing from a lot of my female friends today. He's the guy that you turned down at the bar three times in a night. He's that guy...

And for the guys...

My roommate came home and she showed me a screenshot of her fantasy football lineup that included this Clinton ad:
http://awfulannouncing.com/2016/hill...ll-player.html

Talk about precision strikes for both sexes.

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIX: Escape from the Planet of Debates

Posting about the actual tightness of the polling is not a "sky is falling" act. It's data.

She is ahead and I think she's going to win, but I would REALLY like to get some godd-mn insurance runs because when you let a crappy opponent hang around bad stuff can happen.

So, your take is polls are reflective of Trump being a bit less than 50/50 to win (49/51?). I say polls are inflating his support because at this point old people are more engaged at this point as the Obama coalition takes a little longer to come along, and even with that he's still losing. Who's right? Who knows. But, consider this. IF Trump was doing so well, would he not begin to moderate his tone (but not his positions) in the hopes of expanding his lead? A man STILL trafficking in Birtherism isn't a candidate operating from a position of strength. He'd be pivoting on student loans and mandatory minimum sentencing and all that. This morning he doubled down on the weight gain of his former Miss America winner during an interview. These aren't the moves of a candidate in the driver's seat. They're the moves of a candidate seeking to max out on uneducated white male anger and to hell with the other 2/3rds of the voters. That's not a winning strategy unless you think young people and minorities are in fact lazier than everybody else and can't be bothered to vote.

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIX: Escape from the Planet of Debates

So, your take is polls are reflective of Trump being a bit less than 50/50 to win (49/51?). I say polls are inflating his support because at this point old people are more engaged at this point as the Obama coalition takes a little longer to come along, and even with that he's still losing. Who's right? Who knows. But, consider this. IF Trump was doing so well, would he not begin to moderate his tone (but not his positions) in the hopes of expanding his lead? A man STILL trafficking in Birtherism isn't a candidate operating from a position of strength. He'd be pivoting on student loans and mandatory minimum sentencing and all that. This morning he doubled down on the weight gain of his former Miss America winner during an interview. These aren't the moves of a candidate in the driver's seat. They're the moves of a candidate seeking to max out on uneducated white male anger and to hell with the other 2/3rds of the voters. That's not a winning strategy unless you think young people and minorities are in fact lazier than everybody else and can't be bothered to vote.

Do you honestly think Trump would pivot even if he was up by 20 pts? You know, for calling me whatever it is you're calling me you sure are out to lunch.

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIX: Escape from the Planet of Debates

So, your take is polls are reflective of Trump being a bit less than 50/50 to win (49/51?)

My take is right now Hillary is about 56% to win, and that she will win with roughly 51% of the votes cast between the two majors, less whatever percentage third party candidates eat (which looks like 7% now, which I assume will drop to around 5% by Election Day).

I think we are looking at 49-46-5, with Hillary getting a little headroom in the Electoral College because the states happen to break well for the Dems this time, with the Senate coming down to a toss-up. Any chance of a House run is gone, so Hillary will need to work with at least one Republican chamber.

This election is about risk mitigation -- it's shoring up the levee to prevent the flood.

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIX: Escape from the Planet of Debates

Posting about the actual tightness of the polling is not a "sky is falling" act. It's data.

She is ahead and I think she's going to win, but I would REALLY like to get some godd-mn insurance runs because when you let a crappy opponent hang around bad stuff can happen.

She has a two goal lead...which as we all know is the hardest to protect

They should do with the "sniffles" what they did with Marco and his inability to talk and make it front and center. Rubio still hasnt lived down his disaster of a rebuttal to the State of the Union

Hillary and her campaign should be all over the place now, talking up the issues and re-iterating the incoherent blathering of her opponent. She should be all over the country Harry Truman style. Hell use some of his quotes they are fitting!

"America was not built on fear. America was built on courage, on imagination and an unbeatable determination to do the job at hand."


"You know that being an American is more than a matter of where your parents came from. It is a belief that all men are created free and equal and that everyone deserves an even break."


"Experience has shown how deeply the seeds of war are planted by economic rivalry and social injustice."

"These polls that the Republican candidate is putting out are like sleeping pills designed to lull the voters into sleeping on election day. You might call them sleeping polls."

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIX: Escape from the Planet of Debates

Do you honestly think Trump would pivot even if he was up by 20 pts?

The thing I have learned about Trump during this whole debacle is that he can't pivot. What we are seeing is the man himself. It is not an act. He is what he is -- a stillborn adolescent narcissist whose money has insulated him from reality for his entire life. He really believes the stuff he says. He really thinks he's brilliant, and a leader. He has no clue that the respect his inner circle and even his family has extended to him has been respect for his money, not himself.

He has no idea he is a loser.

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIX: Escape from the Planet of Debates

My take is right now Hillary is about 56% to win, and that she will win with roughly 51% of the votes cast between the two majors, less whatever percentage third party candidates eat (which looks like 7% now, which I assume will drop to around 5% by Election Day).

I think 538 is overweighting their polls...Nate seems afraid to be wrong like he was in the primaries. either that or over night a bunch of polls came in and despite what seems to be a pretty high majority of people and press thinking Hillary trounced Drumpf he somehow gained support. Sorry I dont buy that something is rotten in Denmark...I would have her 65-35 and will probably hit about 47% of the vote which will be more than enough to beat Drumpf. (if the election were today)

I think it is like Scooby always says to me about the Pairwise...it is not something that is meant to watch day to day because every little thing has repercussions minute by minute which seem illogical at the time. (like a team losing yet moving up or how a game with two teams from another conference playing to a tie could push a team off the bubble) The more you watch the crazier the numbers seem.

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIX: Escape from the Planet of Debates

Do you honestly think Trump would pivot even if he was up by 20 pts? You know, for calling me whatever it is you're calling me you sure are out to lunch.

Yes, I do because he wants to be President. Trump may be unconventional, but he's not completely devoid of political sense. Kinda like how he figured out that he did in fact have to raise money to compete in the general election. Trump wasn't just interrupting Hillary because he's a jerk. He was doing it on purpose to try and throw her off her game or get her angry which would have caused bedwetting libs (not my term Kep but one in the national media's lexicon in recent weeks) to hyperventilate. For a supposed loose cannon, he does occasionally have a reason behind what he's doing.

Likewise, if he had an opportunity to cut into Clinton's base, he'd take it. You'd have to be an idiot to think otherwise.

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIX: Escape from the Planet of Debates

Yes, I do because he wants to be President. Trump may be unconventional, but he's not completely devoid of political sense. Kinda like how he figured out that he did in fact have to raise money to compete in the general election. Trump wasn't just interrupting Hillary because he's a jerk. He was doing it on purpose to try and throw her off her game or get her angry which would have caused bedwetting libs (not my term Kep but one in the national media's lexicon in recent weeks) to hyperventilate. For a supposed loose cannon, he does occasionally have a reason behind what he's doing.

Likewise, if he had an opportunity to cut into Clinton's base, he'd take it. You'd have to be an idiot to think otherwise.

Then I must be an idiot because I don't agree with you on any of this and you have no evidence to support your assertion.