Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

I'm actually not, since I don't consider myself in either "half" of the Trump camp. I just think that it's a horrible gaff by Clinton. Personally, I think it's also important because it is one of the key reasons why we're not going to see this thousand year Democratic Reich that Rover keeps predicting. So long as the Dems continue to misunderstand the motivations of large segments of the American public, they aren't going to be able to tailor their campaigns to take advantage of it.

Misunderstand?

What a crock of BS.

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

Misunderstand?

What a crock of BS.

According to Hovey the Dems should wear white sheets and wave Confederate flags in order to appeal to half of Trump's base. No thanks.

[The Sicatoka]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

All he has to do now is win the debates. And that will be easy since Hillary can't win a debate where facts mean nothing.

In. Co. Rect.

All he has to do is not lose badly.
If he can battle to a (claimed, alleged) draw, or (gulp) better, against someone who's supposed to be so much smarter at policy, it's over.

But it won't be a policy debate; it'll be flashback to the elementary school playground (advantage: Trump).


Attacking Trump for a 'net meme frog? Really? She wins on policy, not pap. I can't believe that the Clinton campaign can't see that they're falling into the same trap that eliminated 17* Rs or more** in the primaries: Trying to out mud the mudder.


*Bush, Carson, Cruz, Kasich, Gilmore, Rubio, Perry, Walker, Jindal, Graham, Pataki, Gilmore, Huckabee, Santorum, Paul, Fiorina, Christie
**de facto Mitt Romney as he never tried <-- based on that Romney may be smarter than the Clinton campaign.

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

I'm actually not, since I don't consider myself in either "half" of the Trump camp. I just think that it's a horrible gaff by Clinton. Personally, I think it's also important because it is one of the key reasons why we're not going to see this thousand year Democratic Reich that Rover keeps predicting. So long as the Dems continue to misunderstand the motivations of large segments of the American public, they aren't going to be able to tailor their campaigns to take advantage of it.

No party will ever "get" all the segments of any population and to expect that is ridiculous. The Dems though will most likely never fall too far out of favor though because the GOP refuses to understand or fight for minorities and women. White males may get you lots of power in various states but the minority vote and womens rights will always haunt them. That is why they are doing everything they can to suppress the Black Vote in some states. (and then openly bragging about how it helps their cause) and before someone says it, the high courts are agreeing that is what they are doing (and the evidence is beyond obvious...hell the Party did studies to see how it would help them) which is why they have stopped them from doing it.

Pragmatically speaking, the Dems will have a better tie with their strategy than the GOP will with theirs. The population shift is not going in favor of the White Male crowd which is ultimately why Mrs. Clinton, despite being reviled, is still going to end up winning.

[The Sicatoka]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

“It is very difficult to say today who will and who will not show up to vote on Election Day.”

As I've been saying (ad nauseum, ad infinitum) it's who shows up to vote againston Nov 8. After eight years of Mr. Obama, I suspect the "never Hillary" crowd to start lining up about Nov 6.

[unofan]

As I've been saying (ad nauseum, ad infinitum) it's who shows up to vote againston Nov 8. After eight years of Mr. Obama, I suspect the "never Hillary" crowd to start lining up about Nov 6.

Voting starts in some states about a month early, so if they're waiting until November 6, they must not be that motivated.

[SJHovey]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

According to Hovey the Dems should wear white sheets and wave Confederate flags in order to appeal to half of Trump's base. No thanks.

According to 538's data, it looks like a sizable portion already are.

No party will ever "get" all the segments of any population and to expect that is ridiculous. The Dems though will most likely never fall too far out of favor though because the GOP refuses to understand or fight for minorities and women. White males may get you lots of power in various states but the minority vote and womens rights will always haunt them. That is why they are doing everything they can to suppress the Black Vote in some states. (and then openly bragging about how it helps their cause) and before someone says it, the high courts are agreeing that is what they are doing (and the evidence is beyond obvious...hell the Party did studies to see how it would help them) which is why they have stopped them from doing it.

Pragmatically speaking, the Dems will have a better tie with their strategy than the GOP will with theirs. The population shift is not going in favor of the White Male crowd which is ultimately why Mrs. Clinton, despite being reviled, is still going to end up winning.

But that assumes these parties remain static. There may be a sizable portion of the GOP (I don't believe a majority) that are not good on the social issues. But that hasn't always been the case, and only a sucker believes that will always be the case. These groups shift and when the right candidate comes along who understands what economic buttons to push (not some blowhard) the GOP will be back. We'll all live to see it.

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

In. Co. Rect.

All he has to do is not lose badly.
If he can battle to a (claimed, alleged) draw, or (gulp) better, against someone who's supposed to be so much smarter at policy, it's over.

But it won't be a policy debate; it'll be flashback to the elementary school playground.

He needs to play to a draw in all 3 to have a chance...the media will call it a "draw" once but they didnt even cater to Mitt past that and they wont for Drumpf either. Unless Matt Lauer is doing it then we are all screwed

It is going to be interesting to see what the non-Drumpfer Right is going to do here...quite the ethical dilemma. (in states that are in play) They dont like Drumpf and will mostly likely vote for Johnson. Said vote though will have an impact because it could help both candidates they hate take the state. Do they vote their conscience and stay with Johnson or do they take steps to go against the person they hate the most? (or do they stay home, which is basically the same as voting for Johnson at this point)

See the problem with a lot of these polls (and why I dont read them) is they often weight things based on registered voters likely to vote and how they tend to vote. That is great except the last few elections have shown people dont vote how they are expected to vote and this election especially you are going to see that predictive polls are way off. (both ways mind you) Registered GOPers of voting age arent necessarily voting along party lines and neither are registered Dems. (though as of now way less so in part cause Jill Stein is horrid) Things are too fluid right now, plenty of people on the fence for both sides and two candidates that dont seem to really know what to do next.

It is going to be an interesting rest of this month to be sure. Hillary is still winning but she needs to switch things up rather quickly. She needs some positive press because most of the stuff out there looks bad. (and right now how things look matter most) The only thing scxaring me is that despite the fact that there is just as much negative about Drumpf out there (the New York AG investigating him, the Florida AG scandal, his stupidity, his constant being caught lying) nothing seems to hold. I am not going full Scooby yet but he seems to be the Teflon Don right now and the people dont care, which means the media of course doesnt care cause they sell out for clicks. the Dems need to fire up their people on the state and county level, keep them engaged and ready to pounce and they need to keep up the full court press until election day. They cant let the liberals get complacent or the end times are here...

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

According to 538's data, it looks like a sizable portion already are.

But that assumes these parties remain static. There may be a sizable portion of the GOP (I don't believe a majority) that are not good on the social issues. But that hasn't always been the case, and only a sucker believes that will always be the case. These groups shift and when the right candidate comes along who understands what economic buttons to push (not some blowhard) the GOP will be back. We'll all live to see it.

Economic buttons?

You do realize that nothing gets through Congress right now unless it fits the trickle down model. Nothing. And, that idea is NEVER leaving the GOP. Never.

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

According to 538's data, it looks like a sizable portion already are.

But that assumes these parties remain static. There may be a sizable portion of the GOP (I don't believe a majority) that are not good on the social issues. But that hasn't always been the case, and only a sucker believes that will always be the case. These groups shift and when the right candidate comes along who understands what economic buttons to push (not some blowhard) the GOP will be back. We'll all live to see it.

But you are making the same assumption about the Dems...you seem to believe the GOP will shift to course correct but the Dems wont. By their very nature they shift together. The Dems wont shift though until the GOP starts caring about people other than those that look like the average life insurance salesman in Connecticut.

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

Voting starts in some states about a month early, so if they're waiting until November 6, they must not be that motivated.

Which is the next key factor. How well Dems are turning out the early vote (there's a reason why its always GOP legislatures trying to reduce early voting) compared to 2012. I'm not sure how widespread early voting was in earlier elections.

Beyond that, I have to laugh at Hovey's insistence that GOP voters as currently constituted will shift on social issues. When is the last time Republicans were on the correct side of a social issue? I'd say the mid 60's on civil rights until all the racists followed the Nixon campaign and took over the party. That was 50 freakin' years ago! You've got to have a lot of patience to wait that long.

[geezer]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

Misunderstand?

What a crock of BS.

Handyman is correct. This ad hominem attack about "deplorables" was very bad, maybe more damaging than the "bitter clingers" was, but it's not the worst thing. The worst thing is the baseline assumption that the "other half" are just sad that government somehow isn't "doing enough for them." She doesn't get it at all. The rest of the Trumpers (the non-bigoted ones) are the white male uneducated pig farmers who carry the illusion that government is already doing FAR TOO MUCH of everything, and if only not for government interference they would be a big success and the sun would always shine pleasantly on their endeavors and they would all be riding one-ton coal-burning 4WD mudders. I know these people. Illary is maximizing Trump's turnout. It's not enough to give him a reasonable chance of winning, but it's the very worst/most dangerous route for her to take.

[joecct]

Voting starts in some states about a month early, so if they're waiting until November 6, they must not be that motivated.

IIRC, if aomething should happen to either candidate prior to 11/8 and they are replaced, the early votes for that candidate are invalid.

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

The rest of the Trumpers (the non-bigoted ones) are the white male uneducated pig farmers who carry the illusion that government is already doing FAR TOO MUCH of everything, and if only not for government interference they would be a big success and the sun would always shine pleasantly on their endeavors and they would all be riding one-ton coal-burning 4WD mudders. I know these people.

These people exist, but if they existed in large numbers Trump would not have won the nomination. Trump (and to a lesser extent Huckabee) was running directly against Republican dogma that the government is the enemy. He advocates using the government to get the white working class what they want: import duties to protect production, an anti-immigrant police state to protect jobs and reduce the load on the safety net, a Klingon military to take the resources we want.

"Small government" conservatism has been exposed as an elites' ideology with few workaday advocates. What there is of it merely cloaks a partisan resentment against a government that does things they don't like, not a libertarian streak. The Trump voters will be perfectly happy with a large, activist government as long as they control it. You can see how crushing this was to the movement conservatives at the National Review and Club for Growth and Cato Institute. They were sincerely shocked that small government is not a significant motivator of the contemporary conservative base.

[unofan]

IIRC, if aomething should happen to either candidate prior to 11/8 and they are replaced, the early votes for that candidate are invalid.

Doubtful. For one, there's no way all fifty states would have the same rules on that front, so any blanket statement like that has to be taken with a grain of salt.

Secondly, most ballots are printed months in advance, so it's not like they'd change by election day anyway.

Third, we have precedent of dead people remaining on the ballot for statewide elections like senate seats.

In other words, I don't believe that for a second. Sounds like a rumor made up to discourage early voting and drive down turnout, which would only benefit the GOP.