Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

538 Polls Only moves ME-2, NC and OH to Trump.

What the f-cking sh-t, America?

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

538 Polls Only moves ME-2, NC and OH to Trump.

What the f-cking sh-t, America?

Told ya.

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

538 Polls Only moves ME-2, NC and OH to Trump.

What the f-cking sh-t, America?

Settle down Beavis.

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

Settle down Beavis.

Um. No.

Show me where it says the country can't make a horrific mistake.

[BassAle]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

Settle down Beavis.

actually, now is the time to panic. There is a very real chance Trump will pull this off.

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

actually, now is the time to panic. There is a very real chance Trump will pull this off.

All he has to do now is win the debates. And that will be easy since Hillary can't win a debate where facts mean nothing.

[SJHovey]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

Um. No.

Show me where it says the country can't make a horrific mistake.

Other than Scooby, why didn't you guys expect this? For weeks now the entire election news cycle has been about candidates poor or excellent health, emails, deplorables and irredeemables, which candidate is a bigger liar, which candidate is more corrupt, blah, blah, blah.

HRC, to an admittedly smaller extent thus far, has made the exact same mistake as Cruz, Bush, Kasich and the rest of the R's. They let themselves, (or even worse, chose) to crawl down in the mud with Trump. Campaigns where it's all about name-calling and insults are Trump's specialty. If you're going to roll around in the mud with pigs, you're going to get dirty.

Now, that said, I still don't see any chance at all for Trump to win. If any good comes of this, the public will wake up and realize what complete pieces of s h ! t both parties are, and demand better.

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

Um. No.

Show me where it says the country can't make a horrific mistake.

Bush already happened however. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice...

Ann Seltzer who's a very good pollster did a very good job explaining her Ohio results (which again Nate at 538 is using because what else is he supposed to do):

"Ann Selzer, the well-respected Iowa pollster who produced the survey, provided Bloomberg with a possible explanation for its divergent results: Voters who identified as Republicans were more likely to be classified as likely voters than those who said they identified as Democrats. Including those who lean toward one party, Republicans comprised about 43 percent of the sample, while Democrats made up roughly 36 percent.

“Our party breakdown differs from other polls, but resembles what happened in Ohio in 2004,” Selzer told Bloomberg, pointing to exit polling from 12 years ago when George W. Bush carried the state. “It is very difficult to say today who will and who will not show up to vote on Election Day. Our poll suggests more Republicans than Democrats would do that in an Ohio election held today.”

Democrats in the two most-recent elections have turned out to elect now-President Barack Obama. In the 2008 exit polls, Democrats made up 39 percent of the electorate, compared to 31 percent for Republicans. In 2012, it was 38 percent Democratic and 31 percent Republican.

According to the Bloomberg article accompanying the survey, larger shares of male and older voters passed through Selzer’s likely-voter screen, tilting the electorate toward Trump and the Republicans."

So I'm getting somewhat sick of explaining this to you but perhaps Handy isn't. Anyway, the post-Labor Day likely voter screens are capturing a disproportionate older white electorate who just so happen to be in Trump's sweet spot. This is not surprising as they are more likely to be engaged at this point in the election, while the younger and non-white voters come along closer to election day. No need to unskewer anything. The takeaway is simple. If only Trump supporters show up on election day he'll have a good night. Or, he'll be 50/50 to win. That's highly unlikely.

More seriously though you're really doing the bidding of the white power crowd even if its unintentional. The premise is that only those older, white working class people are the real Americans who care enough to vote, while everybody else is either indifferent (young voters) or lazy (minorities). I personally wouldn't want to be buying into that stereotype, but that's just me.

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

Didnt 538 have Florida red the other day when you were freaking out Kep? Looks like it flipped back blue.

[SJHovey]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

By the way, given the underlying data from which these charts were created, it would be interesting to hear HRC's thoughts on the number of deplorables supporting her.

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

By the way, given the underlying data from which these charts were created, it would be interesting to hear HRC's thoughts on the number of deplorables supporting her.

You sure are butt hurt over that...

[BassAle]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

Now, that said, I still don't see any chance at all for Trump to win. If any good comes of this, the public will wake up and realize what complete pieces of s h ! t both parties are, and demand better.

uh no, the GOP is going to double down on xenophobia, racism, sexism, anti-intellectualism. They've awoken the deplorables, those people are not going away.

[SJHovey]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

You sure are butt hurt over that...

I'm actually not, since I don't consider myself in either "half" of the Trump camp. I just think that it's a horrible gaff by Clinton. Personally, I think it's also important because it is one of the key reasons why we're not going to see this thousand year Democratic Reich that Rover keeps predicting. So long as the Dems continue to misunderstand the motivations of large segments of the American public, they aren't going to be able to tailor their campaigns to take advantage of it.

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

uh no, the GOP is going to double down on xenophobia, racism, sexism, anti-intellectualism. They've awoken the deplorables, those people are not going away.

Sadly this is true...why would the GOP walk away from this when it is doing better than their last two candidates did. (at least using todays snapshot) The people most of us despise finally have a voice!

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVIII: I'm OK, You're Deplorable

I'm actually not, since I don't consider myself in either "half" of the Trump camp. I just think that it's a horrible gaff by Clinton. Personally, I think it's also important because it is one of the key reasons why we're not going to see this thousand year Democratic Reich that Rover keeps predicting. So long as the Dems continue to misunderstand the motivations of large segments of the American public, they aren't going to be able to tailor their campaigns to take advantage of it.

I think it DOES describe you, and that's why you're so upset. If the shoe fits, wear it Hovey. Nobody told you to back a white supremacist for President. You're doing that all on your own.