Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Rubio reminds me of Scott Brown, a guy who caught lightening for a little bit but then got exposed as a dumb ***.

That's a good comparison, although Rubio also had identity politics in his favor.

After hearing about Rubio's supposed polish and cleverness I was flabbergasted how out and out stupid he is. Perry everybody knew was stupid, but Marco was a surprise.

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Interesting that its taken the NY Post and Politico to break the story that Trump's new campaign manager is a wife beater:

http://nypost.com/2016/08/25/trump-c...ttacking-wife/

Your link is truncated. Here is a working link.

The Post has been in the tank for Trump; I am surprised they ran the story. Two cheers for them, in the sense that their sensationalism got the better of their partisanship.

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

That's a good comparison, although Rubio also had identity politics in his favor.

After hearing about Rubio's supposed polish and cleverness I was flabbergasted how out and out stupid he is. Perry everybody knew was stupid, but Marco was a surprise.

Watching Rubio debate was painful. Can you imagine him dealing with leaders from other countries...good lord!

[WeAreNDHockey]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

You'll have to show me those polls. I'm seeing him anywhere from 2 to 5 ahead of Murphy who most likely is the Dem nominee (Grayson is nuts).

Here is one. Here's another.

To be sure, there are other polls, some more recent, that show a closer race as well. I just think enough of the data I've seen tells me that Rubio is not nearly as likely to lose his seat as a couple of Republicans to the north. If Clinton were to win Florida by 3 or 4 points more than I would expect, Rubio would probably get swept away.

[Wisko McBadgerton]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Police reports are pretty straight forward. The guy was arrested and the cops noted the woman's bruises and other injuries. Innocent until proven guilty and all that but I doubt the police were trying to frame him.

But you're comfortable with the idea that Kathleen Willey, Paula Jones, and Jaunita Broaddrick were all trying to frame Bill Clinton?

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

But you're comfortable with the idea that Kathleen Willey, Paula Jones, and Jaunita Broaddrick were all trying to frame Bill Clinton?

Though I don't remember any of the details of the various accusations against Clinton I remember at the time being under the impression that (1) Clinton was forever stepping out on Hillary, (2) the power-marriage rules those two had hammered out allowed him to chase all the tail he wanted as long as he didn't screw up their public perception, (3) Bill probably had sex with not only most (all?) the women who accused him, but hundreds of satisfied customers who never came forward, (4) Richard Mellon Scaife et al. were always trying to dig up the Smoking Gun on Clinton and weren't above bribing people to lie about him, and (5) some of the women who accused Clinton likely did feel wronged by him, but it was very doubtful that they weren't completely consenting at the time because Clinton always took the path of least resistance and would have simply gone on to the next willing staffer, reporter, fan, etc.

tl; dr: I didn't buy it then and I don't buy it now. Like any celeb, Clinton would be a lightning rod for various accusations to sell books or prompt a blackmail settlement, and like some celebs he made it that much easier by constantly being on the prowl.

[WeAreNDHockey]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

But you're comfortable with the idea that Kathleen Willey, Paula Jones, and Jaunita Broaddrick were all trying to frame Bill Clinton?

I think only the most naive supporters of EITHER Clinton don't believe that Bill is an unrepentant horndog. As well, most know theirs to be a marriage based on more factors than just love and mutual attraction. It boggles my mind that people think the Clintons are so conniving and calculating, but don't realize just why they have remained married all these years. Power is attractive. It's why, despite my smashing good looks and generally overall nice-guy personality, I get very little tail. Bill Clinton took advantage of his power, but he's no Bill Cosby.

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Power is attractive. It's why, despite my smashing good looks and generally overall nice-guy personality, I get very little tail. Bill Clinton took advantage of his power, but he's no Bill Cosby.

"Looks! Proximity to power!"

[St. Clown]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Though I don't remember any of the details of the various accusations against Clinton I remember at the time being under the impression that (1) Clinton was forever stepping out on Hillary, (2) the power-marriage rules those two had hammered out allowed him to chase all the tail he wanted as long as he didn't screw up their public perception, (3) Bill probably had sex with not only most (all?) the women who accused him, but hundreds of satisfied customers who never came forward, (4) Richard Mellon Scaife et al. were always trying to dig up the Smoking Gun on Clinton and weren't above bribing people to lie about him, and (5) some of the women who accused Clinton likely did feel wronged by him, but it was very doubtful that they weren't completely consenting at the time because Clinton always took the path of least resistance and would have simply gone on to the next willing staffer, reporter, fan, etc.

tl; dr: I didn't buy it then and I don't buy it now. Like any celeb, Clinton would be a lightning rod for various accusations to sell books or prompt a blackmail settlement, and like some celebs he made it that much easier by constantly being on the prowl.

To bolster your point, Monica never came out against Bill. Instead, she was brought into the mix because she was too excited by the guy, perhaps even smitten, and had to tell someone. She confided in the wrong person. And then there was her trophy dress, likely her biggest mistake of the lot.

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Here is one. Here's another.
If Clinton were to win Florida by 3 or 4 points more than I would expect, Rubio would probably get swept away.

We're saying the same thing. I doubt Rubio survives a Trump loss. If Trump wins FL or makes it really close, perhaps he hangs on. I'm not expecting Trump to win FL, hence my prediction of Little Marco's demise.

Rubio is in the 2nd tier of races. First tier is IL-WI-NH-PA-IN. 2nd tier is FL-NC-AZ-OH-NV (Dem held seat). 3rd tier is MO and IA.

I'd expect the 1st tier to all go Dem rather easily except for maybe IN. 2nd tier if Trump keeps going the way he is now Dems take 2 of 5 at least.

I don't expect a Dem victory in MO or IA before somebody goes nuts. If Trump's position gets any worse however you're going to see pressure on those races.

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

But you're comfortable with the idea that Kathleen Willey, Paula Jones, and Jaunita Broaddrick were all trying to frame Bill Clinton?

Apples and oranges. I don't recall Clinton ever arrested for domestic abuse which is what Bannon got lugged for. Also I have a hard time believing any of those women because too much money was floating around on the right to get them to "remember" their stories decades later. Not only is Bannon's ex-wife not the one blowing the whistle, she has no financial incentive to do so at this point.

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

We're saying the same thing. I doubt Rubio survives a Trump loss. If Trump wins FL or makes it really close, perhaps he hangs on. I'm not expecting Trump to win FL, hence my prediction of Little Marco's demise.

FL isn't wildly out of whack yet, though -- 5 points in a D +1.0 state. Not to put too fine a point on it but there are a ton of old retired white racists in FL -- basically the entire Redneck Riviera, which is Diet Alabama.

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

FL isn't wildly out of whack yet, though -- 5 points in a D +1.0 state. Not to put too fine a point on it but there are a ton of old retired white racists in FL -- basically the entire Redneck Riviera, which is Diet Alabama.

Rubio has a potential problem just like Ayotte, Toomey, McCain, and Portman do, which is they're Establishment Goopers through and through, but they NEED Trump voters to vote for them as well. Portman right now has some slack to work with but the rest of them don't. Hence the ridiculous tortured logic of say Ayotte claiming she'll vote for Trump but not endorse him.

So, if Trump looks like he's going to lose come election day, his Breitbert inspired conspiracy theorist loons are going to be looking for someone to blame. Since I doubt half of the people you mention can tell the difference between Rubio and Ted Cruz, there's no guarantee they're going to vote for both Trump and Rubio (or the other Establishment senators). In fact I'd say Rubio due to his heritage is probably in the most trouble with this crowd, while maybe Portman gets more of a free pass since he hasn't actually badmouthed Trump any (although he did skip the convention in his home state).

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

Since I doubt half of the people you mention can tell the difference between Rubio and Ted Cruz, there's no guarantee they're going to vote for both Trump and Rubio (or the other Establishment senators). In fact I'd say Rubio due to his heritage is probably in the most trouble with this crowd

If a minority runs as a Republican they become Honorary White. The far right tail at my work was all over Herman Cain last time and Ben Carson this time. They really liked the feeling of backing "one of the good ones." Rubio is essentially David Spade's character in PCU. I don't think any of those transplanted Ohioans will have the least problem pulling the lever for him.

[aparch]

First tier is IL-WI-NH-PA-IN.
...
I'd expect the 1st tier to all go Dem rather easily except for maybe IN.

Illinois is going to be messy. Mark Kirk (R) is the only Republican to meet with Marek Garland, so he's really bucking the party line. Kirk also has favorables with Latino voters. Kirk also is a stroke survivor with limited mobility. But he's fallen out of favor with the Republican party.

His opponent, Representitive Tammy Duckworth is a highly decorated war vet, and double amputee thanks to a rocket propelled grenade that took out her Black Hawk helicopter in the second Iraq War. And she polls favorably in the suburbs and has a pretty strong Dem backing.



The real fun began last week when Mark Kirk called Obama "The Drug Dealer In Chief."
Duckworth pounced stating that Kirk was "Unhinged," and needed to apologize.
Kirk retorted that Duckworth's "Unhinged" comment was...

..."insensitive to stroke victims."


Yep, Kirk yelled "coup-fourré!" before Duckworth could use hers. The winner of the game of Mille Bornes wins the Illinois Senate seat.