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Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

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  • Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

    Originally posted by ScoobyDoo View Post
    I still say there's an argument to be made for him being the President. I cite the Brexit vote in England as a good example why.
    I don't know what you mean. An argument that he could win? Yes, of course he could win -- people are angry. An argument that he ought to win? No. Nobody hates the neoliberal world order more than I, but my solution isn't to throw cherry bombs into our institutions and dance in the rubble.

    Brexitism and Trumpism are forms of affluenza. Western whites think we're entitled to prosperity as a normal baseline condition so if we don't have it then something's blocking the pipe and the solution is Drano. But that's not true -- getting to and maintaining prosperity is complicated, especially in a world where we can no longer impoverish 90% of the human race to further feed our fat faces. Prosperity is counterentropic, and throwing around dynamite only increases entropy.
    Last edited by Kepler; 08-11-2016, 03:41 PM.
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    • Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

      Wow. Is this really the Time cover?
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      • Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

        One not so great sign: the RCP no tossups for the Senate has now pulled in to 50-50. Of course, if Trump really does drive R turnout down (or D turnout up) we might get a wave, but it doesn't look like the isolated race effects are doing us any favors.

        RCP hasn't even bothered putting a House map up yet, and I have read nothing suggesting either side expects more than a slight 5-10 seat swing to D. The districts have just been firewalled too well by both sides. D Reps outvoted R Reps by 1M last time and are still well in the minority, and I have read D would need something like a 6M majority just to break even given the gerrymandering.
        Last edited by Kepler; 08-11-2016, 04:05 PM.
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        • Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

          Originally posted by Kepler View Post
          One not so great sign: the RCP no tossups for the Senate has now pulled in to 50-50. Of course, if Trump really does drive R turnout down (or D turnout up) we might get a wave, but it doesn't look like the isolated race effects are doing us any favors.

          RCP hasn't even bothered putting a House map up yet, and I have read nothing suggesting either side expects more than a slight 5-10 seat swing to D. The districts have just been firewalled too well by both sides. D Reps outvoted R Reps by 1M last time and are still well in the minority, and I have read D would need something like a 6M majority just to break even given the gerrymandering.
          RCP does a fair enough job but they tend to include the ridiculous Quinnipiac polls that swing and miss more than Flaggy when he played Little League baseball.

          So, put aside pundits and listen to Rover. Kirk-Johnson-Ayotte-Toomey are done. They need to start looking for another job, effective Jan 2017, now. None of those 1st term Senators can survive even a low single digit loss by Trump in their state. He's closing in on double digits in all of them. Its also doubtful Rubio survives although he's the beneficiary of a weaker challenger who's still dealing with bitter primary fight with a lunatic so more to come on that. Right now he's no better than 50/50 and again needs Trump to win or lose with a point or so to keep that seat as well as his challenger to flame out.

          We'll see about Indiana but Bayh has 10M bucks to spend on that race in the next 3 months vs a little known opponent.

          I'd also say McCain is 50/50 at this point. He has no friends left. Too much butt kissing of the hard right for crossover Dem votes, and the Trumpsters can't stand him. Even if Trump eeks out a win, he might go down if Trump voters don't support him as well.

          Portman I believe will outrun Trump in Ohio. He can survive a Romney type loss. Any more than that and I think he's screwed despite doing everything right so far.

          Beyond that, NV (Reid's seat) and NC (Burr) I'd expect to default to whoever wins each state. Trump is running a little better in NV but a little worse in NC than you'd expect.

          So to sum up you've got at least 4 GOP seats flipping. 50/50 on 3 more at this point and a slight party advantage in 3 more states (NV, OH, NC) that's going to depend a lot on the Hillary-Trump vote. Of all of these, 9 are held by Republicans and 1 by Dems.
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          • Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

            Originally posted by Kepler View Post
            He seems to be one of the countless number of Matt Welch / Reason Magazine "coders and engineers should decide all matters of public policy" people who have constructed a sealed, internally-consistent worldview in which they happen to be qualified to run the world. See also: every other insulated, parochial tribe that ever came down the pike. They mistake the salary they can command on the job market with the value of their economic and political opinions, which are dismally determined by their biographies.
            And you know what? We are right.

            Nice to see Kep lumps "coders and engineers" along with the South as groups he's inherently bigoted against. Or is he admitting he, too, is part of just another "insulated, parochial tribe that ... came down the pike".
            Last edited by The Sicatoka; 08-11-2016, 05:14 PM.
            The preceding post may contain trigger words and is not safe-space approved. <-- Virtue signaling.

            North Dakota Hockey:

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            • Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

              Originally posted by Kepler View Post
              Wow. Is this really the Time cover?
              Nah. Time's not in the tank for Hillary.

              Just like Sean Hannity's not in the tank for Trump.
              The preceding post may contain trigger words and is not safe-space approved. <-- Virtue signaling.

              North Dakota Hockey:

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              • Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

                Maybe Hillary and Trump should get into a "show me yours and I'll show you mine" battle.

                http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...edical_records
                The preceding post may contain trigger words and is not safe-space approved. <-- Virtue signaling.

                North Dakota Hockey:

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                • Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

                  Originally posted by The Sicatoka View Post
                  Maybe Hillary and Trump should get into a "show me yours and I'll show you mine" battle.

                  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...edical_records
                  Medical records? No--I don't know how you could or should require disclosure. Possibly a declaration of fitness of some sort, such as a physical. And such a thing may already be required.

                  Most recent tax return? Yup. And it looks like Trump has something to hide. He has a history of deception when it comes to the success of his business ventures, and it sounds like his daddy had to bail him out often. Since his only qualification is his self-described business acumen, he'd better come clean.

                  It is so ironic that the right has fought so hard to hang the LIAR label on HRC, given the fraud they have on their side of the ticket.

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                  • Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

                    Originally posted by burd View Post

                    It is so ironic that the right has fought so hard to hang the LIAR label on HRC, given the fraud they have on their side of the ticket.
                    Nobody had to hang the liar label on Hilary, she did it herself.
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                    • Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

                      Originally posted by walrus View Post
                      Nobody had to hang the liar label on Hilary, she did it herself.
                      That thinking, at least, is what this 25-year effort has been all about.

                      They tried to fix the label long before the email thing--based upon what evidence, specifically, is hard to say.

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                      • Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

                        Originally posted by The Sicatoka View Post
                        Nice to see Kep lumps "coders and engineers" along with the South as groups he's inherently bigoted against.
                        Don't be butthurt. I'm the son of an engineer and dabble in coding. There was a conditional in my statement which you might have caught if your verbals were better.

                        OTOH. Nuke the South.
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                        • Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

                          Originally posted by walrus View Post
                          Nobody had to hang the liar label on Hilary, she did it herself.
                          Hillary isn't a liar, she's a lawyer. She parses everything from emails to her lunch order. I find it highly off-putting and I think most people do too, but an entire profession uses those rhetorical tricks every day to represent their clients, and somehow they stay out of the hoosegow.

                          Contrast Trump, who is a liar but not a lawyer. Trump's lies are ridiculous, pull out of the butt, on the fly whoppers. Hillary's mewling tenth-truths always wind around themselves like semantic Ouroboros. She never says anything a judge would ring her up on for misconduct or contempt. It's just that none of her statements are boards that you would trust your weight on.

                          Dr. Mrs. adds: "Hillary lies for political expediency. Trump lies because he does not appear to grasp that his statements can be fact checked."
                          Last edited by Kepler; 08-11-2016, 08:06 PM.
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                          • Originally posted by burd View Post
                            That thinking, at least, is what this 25-year effort has been all about.

                            They tried to fix the label long before the email thing--based upon what evidence, specifically, is hard to say.
                            Yeah, it's everyone else's fault she has been caught lying.
                            I swear there ain't no heaven but I pray there ain't no hell.

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                            • Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

                              Originally posted by Rover View Post
                              Its also doubtful Rubio survives although he's the beneficiary of a weaker challenger who's still dealing with bitter primary fight with a lunatic so more to come on that.
                              I can't tell which Dem is which, which kinda proves your point.
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                              • Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVI: KICK THE BABY!

                                The Congressional leadership knew about the email hacks for a while. The DNC, not so much.

                                http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN10N00D
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