Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Cops 4: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Collapse
This topic is closed.
X
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Re: Cops 4: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

    A sample size of 80 is large enough to be significant. Equating it to five coin flips just shows that you're doing the usual false equivalency routine.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by trixR4kids View Post
      A sample size of 80 is large enough to be significant. Equating it to five coin flips just shows that you're doing the usual false equivalency routine.
      Correct.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by trixR4kids View Post
        A sample size of 80 is large enough to be significant. Equating it to five coin flips just shows that you're doing the usual false equivalency routine.
        +2
        the state of hockey is good

        Comment


        • Re: Cops 4: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

          Given the large population of cases, a random sampling of 80 cases may get you somewhere around +- 10-15 with high confidence (or a lower range with less confidence) But the selected cases are not a random sample, it's a nonprobability sample. So you guys feel free to explain to me how a sample that specifically excludes 99.99% of the possible population (of cases) gives you a statistically reliable result.
          Originally posted by WiscTJK
          I'm with Wisko and Tim.
          Originally posted by Timothy A
          Other than Wisko McBadgerton and Badger Bob, who is universally loved by all?

          Comment


          • Re: Cops 4: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

            So worst case scenario you add +15% and now we're at 50% at most? That's still a pretty big disparity from the average conviction rate in most jurisdictions/federal and it's pretty obvious by now that these cases aren't treated like other cases so that's a pretty generous assumption.

            Comment


            • Re: Cops 4: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

              And how many thousands of interactions end with nothing happening? High profile cases are news because it's a rarity (relatively, I won't overstate the rarity).

              My point is, many of these cases were handled basically in private. Now we are getting trials. In the Yanez case, a JURY found him not guilty. I really do hope they release the whole court case transcript, I would like to read it to be fully informed of what all went on in the trial. Newsblips and the infamous video don't tell the whole story, obviously.

              Yes, there are problem cops, and again, I think in this case (on the surface) the verdict was wrong. IMO, Yanez panicked and over-reacted and now a man is dead. I had said earlier that I don't trust Yanez with a badge, and the way he reacted is the reason. It wasn't malicious, it was he couldn't handle that stressful situation.

              And I will stress again, this is my surface judgement, from the info we've seen in the media.
              Never really developed a taste for tequila. Kind of hard to understand how you make a drink out of something that sharp, inhospitable. Now, bourbon is easy to understand.
              Tastes like a warm summer day. -Raylan Givens

              Comment


              • Re: Cops 4: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

                Originally posted by Brenthoven View Post
                And how many thousands of interactions end with nothing happening? High profile cases are news because it's a rarity (relatively, I won't overstate the rarity).

                My point is, many of these cases were handled basically in private. Now we are getting trials. In the Yanez case, a JURY found him not guilty. I really do hope they release the whole court case transcript, I would like to read it to be fully informed of what all went on in the trial. Newsblips and the infamous video don't tell the whole story, obviously.

                Yes, there are problem cops, and again, I think in this case (on the surface) the verdict was wrong. IMO, Yanez panicked and over-reacted and now a man is dead. I had said earlier that I don't trust Yanez with a badge, and the way he reacted is the reason. It wasn't malicious, it was he couldn't handle that stressful situation.

                And I will stress again, this is my surface judgement, from the info we've seen in the media.
                The problem is that a jury is far more likely to give the benefit of the doubt to the police officer when in reality we give a police a vary important responsibility and he/she should be held to a higher standard than a normal person. If Mr Castillo felt threatened by the cop and shot first for his own safety, I doubt he would have been found not guilty.
                Michigan Tech Legend, Founder of Mitch's Misfits, Co-Founder of Tech Hockey Guide, and Creator/Host of the Chasing MacNaughton Podcast covering MTU Hockey and the WCHA.

                Sports Allegiance: NFL: GB MLB: MIL NHL: MIN CB: UW CF: UW CH: MTU FIFA: USA MLS: MIN EPL: Everton

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Shirtless Guy View Post
                  The problem is that a jury is far more likely to give the benefit of the doubt to the police officer when in reality we give a police a vary important responsibility and he/she should be held to a higher standard than a normal person. If Mr Castillo felt threatened by the cop and shot first for his own safety, I doubt he would have been found not guilty.
                  Exactly. He was protected by the badge.

                  Taillight broken
                  -it wasn't

                  Didn't keep his hands on the wheel
                  -Though to do when you're told to show ID

                  Calling in that a reason for the stop was a wide-set nose?
                  - Well, that pretty much explains itself.

                  This dude effed up, and effed up hard. Cost an innocent person their life. But yet he gets to walk. It's completely nuts.
                  the state of hockey is good

                  Comment


                  • Re: Cops 4: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

                    Originally posted by trixR4kids View Post
                    So worst case scenario you add +15% and now we're at 50% at most? That's still a pretty big disparity from the average conviction rate in most jurisdictions/federal and it's pretty obvious by now that these cases aren't treated like other cases so that's a pretty generous assumption.
                    No. The worst cases are 28 too many or 52 too few cops were convicted. We don't know. A RANDOM sample of 80 cases would correlate to the population result at about +- 14. Again the sample isn't random.

                    If I want to check quality of production on a million widgets I could, at completely random intervals, pull 666 widgets out and check them. If they were all good I would have high confidence that the million were within +- 5 of the specs. If I checked all million and found that they averaged 90% correct, I could RANDOMLY select 666 and have very high confidence they would average between 85-95, because a properly selected random sample has a given probability of correlating with the whole population it is taken from. If instead I select the first 80 widgets made on Tuesday morning, I can say nothing about them. (this is what is going on with the 80 cases) Maybe Monday is bowling night and everyone is hung over and all the widgets suck Tuesday morning and this is what brings down the average. Maybe they're perfect. Excluding the possibility of selecting any of the million widgets made any other time destroys the probability of correlation.

                    In the coin flipping false equivalency, a million coin flip results has a subset Heads and a subset Tails. A random selection of 666 of these results has a very high probability of coming out 50-50 (+-5). If I don't randomly select and instead choose the subset Heads as my sample, my result would be the statement "Wow! Every time a coin is flipped, it comes up Heads!" (Based on 500,000 data points!)

                    Without attempting to correct for a whole slew of variables that exist in this subset of court cases involving cops selected over 12 years, you can say nothing about the conviction rate correlating to the average of all cases last year. There is no mathematical basis for it. Maybe in 50 of the cases the victims were convicted felons and maybe juries only rule in favor of convicted felons 40% of the time. Maybe the laws in 45 of the cases favored the defendants. Maybe the law has been changed in some jurisdictions over that time. Maybe a hundred other things. That too few cops were convicted is a statement of belief based on other things. It could be right, it could be wrong, but it cannot be based on this statistic as despite appearances, there is effectively no probability of correlation between them.
                    Last edited by Wisko McBadgerton; 06-19-2017, 07:47 AM.
                    Originally posted by WiscTJK
                    I'm with Wisko and Tim.
                    Originally posted by Timothy A
                    Other than Wisko McBadgerton and Badger Bob, who is universally loved by all?

                    Comment


                    • Re: Cops 4: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

                      Just my two cents.

                      First, the notion expressed in this thread (that I've yet to hear expressed anywhere else) that somehow the prosecutor's office just put on a show pony trial and didn't try for a conviction seems like complete nonsense to me. There would be no reason to do that. The reason prosecutors are reluctant to charge cops in the first place is because of the close working relationship they have, and a concern about ruining their relationship with and credibility of the cops they call as witnesses every single day. Once the prosecutors went ahead and charged Yanez, that bridge had been crossed. Nothing for the prosecutor to gain by "bagging it." Personally I'd like to see the evidence that the prosecutors threw this case. Conviction rates don't prove anything.

                      Second, this wasn't a trial the prosecutors moved out to Simi Valley. Ramsey County is about as politically "blue" as you'll find between the coasts.

                      The reason the cop was acquitted is that the law (us) give to cops enormous latitude in doing their jobs. If you don't like the legal standard used, change the law. There will be consequences for that, both good and bad, and I won't pretend to know what all of them will be, but that's your solution, not just biatching about it on social media.
                      That community is already in the process of dissolution where each man begins to eye his neighbor as a possible enemy, where non-conformity with the accepted creed, political as well as religious, is a mark of disaffection; where denunciation, without specification or backing, takes the place of evidence; where orthodoxy chokes freedom of dissent; where faith in the eventual supremacy of reason has become so timid that we dare not enter our convictions in the open lists, to win or lose.

                      Comment


                      • Re: Cops 4: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

                        You realize we cant change the law...we dont have that power. So no offense but biotching on social media is about all we have.

                        And "Blue" counties arent absent of racism and overall bias. That notion in and of itself is ludicrous.

                        The prosecutor didnt bag it in this case the jury just refused to convict.
                        "It's as if the Drumpf Administration is made up of the worst and unfunny parts of the Cleveland Browns, Washington Generals, and the alien Mon-Stars from Space Jam."
                        -aparch

                        "Scenes in "Empire Strikes Back" that take place on the tundra planet Hoth were shot on the present-day site of Ralph Engelstad Arena."
                        -INCH

                        Of course I'm a fan of the Vikings. A sick and demented Masochist of a fan, but a fan none the less.
                        -ScoobyDoo 12/17/2007

                        Comment


                        • Re: Cops 4: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

                          Originally posted by Handyman View Post
                          You realize we cant change the law...we dont have that power. So no offense but biotching on social media is about all we have.
                          Pass a law that says "police may only use deadly force in instances of ................"

                          Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm not sure cops have a constitutional right to just shoot people. Explain to me exactly why Congress or a state legislature couldn't pass a law severely limiting the instances in which deadly force may be used, beyond the lack of political will to do so.
                          That community is already in the process of dissolution where each man begins to eye his neighbor as a possible enemy, where non-conformity with the accepted creed, political as well as religious, is a mark of disaffection; where denunciation, without specification or backing, takes the place of evidence; where orthodoxy chokes freedom of dissent; where faith in the eventual supremacy of reason has become so timid that we dare not enter our convictions in the open lists, to win or lose.

                          Comment


                          • Re: Cops 4: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

                            Originally posted by SJHovey View Post
                            Pass a law that says "police may only use deadly force in instances of ................"

                            Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm not sure cops have a constitutional right to just shoot people. Explain to me exactly why Congress or a state legislature couldn't pass a law severely limiting the instances in which deadly force may be used, beyond the lack of political will to do so.
                            They can...WE cant. I am not in the legislature and neither are most of the people you are denouncing for "biotching on social media". That is the problem with what you said (or what the whiners said about the protesters on 94) there isnt much else we can do so we might as well get our voice heard somehow.

                            Oh and that reminds me (this isnt about you this is a general rant) any dipwad who even jokes about hitting protesters with their car because they had to deal with being stuck on the highway is scum. Oh poor baby you get little inconvenienced...imagine being Castille or someone like him. Dont like it...too bad.

                            As for passing a law, no legislator would do it. They would be seen as "Anti-Cop" and "Soft on Crime". Even if someone did you really see anyone on either side of the aisle willing to tick off the cops or their union? Look at the flack Governor Dayton got from police and the Right because he dared say stuff like this isnt ok after Castille was killed. He literally stood up for the rights of law abiding citizens to not be shot by cops and he was accused of being a cop hater and worsening the divide between the police and those they protect. Not the cop who actually killed the guy mind you...he was "afraid for his life".
                            "It's as if the Drumpf Administration is made up of the worst and unfunny parts of the Cleveland Browns, Washington Generals, and the alien Mon-Stars from Space Jam."
                            -aparch

                            "Scenes in "Empire Strikes Back" that take place on the tundra planet Hoth were shot on the present-day site of Ralph Engelstad Arena."
                            -INCH

                            Of course I'm a fan of the Vikings. A sick and demented Masochist of a fan, but a fan none the less.
                            -ScoobyDoo 12/17/2007

                            Comment


                            • Re: Cops 4: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

                              This was posted by a facebook friend who lives in the MSP area...I think its a fair explanation of the situation:

                              Justice was not served to the Castile family, and the laws governing what is a justified police shooting need to change. Police Officers contain too much broad indiscriminate power to kill fellow citizens under the legal justification that the police officer "...feared for his/her life." Due to the extreme public nature of this case, Ramsey County Attorney John Choi made the correct decision to prosecute this case and bring the facts to the public. After reviewing as much of the case as I could, I do believe the jury made the right determination based on the letter of the law, but the laws need to be changed so that police officers are better trained and encouraged to exercise more restraint, clearer communication and better judgement under pressure. Despite what many people have irresponsibly insinuated, this case had nothing to do with race. Based on the evidence, he was shot seven times for following the cop's conflicting and hasty orders to both get out his ID and get his hands out of his pocket within a matter of seconds. Castile's last words were, "I was not reaching for it." What a tragedy. Philando could be your son, your friend, or even you. It is time to change the laws to make the legal justification for police to use lethal force to be more focused and reasonable.

                              I think it basically falls into the same area many are speaking. The result of the trial may not be wrong under the law but that doesn't mean the law is correct. I also stand by my point that by the public giving a police officer a gun, that officer must be held to a higher standard than the rest of us, not a lower one.
                              Michigan Tech Legend, Founder of Mitch's Misfits, Co-Founder of Tech Hockey Guide, and Creator/Host of the Chasing MacNaughton Podcast covering MTU Hockey and the WCHA.

                              Sports Allegiance: NFL: GB MLB: MIL NHL: MIN CB: UW CF: UW CH: MTU FIFA: USA MLS: MIN EPL: Everton

                              Comment


                              • Re: Cops 4: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

                                Originally posted by Handyman View Post
                                They can...WE cant. I am not in the legislature and neither are most of the people you are denouncing for "biotching on social media". That is the problem with what you said (or what the whiners said about the protesters on 94) there isnt much else we can do so we might as well get our voice heard somehow.
                                I'm not criticizing you personally Handy, but the day people throw up their hands and say there is nothing they can do about it because "they" in the government just won't agree to it is the day we've lost. You are definitely not alone in feeling this way. I understand that. In fact, it's one of my primary gripes because too often it feels to me like people working in the government feel that way, too, like they are a separate entity and it's "us versus them." But the legislature is us, and we are the legislature. If we cede that authority, then a pox on us.
                                That community is already in the process of dissolution where each man begins to eye his neighbor as a possible enemy, where non-conformity with the accepted creed, political as well as religious, is a mark of disaffection; where denunciation, without specification or backing, takes the place of evidence; where orthodoxy chokes freedom of dissent; where faith in the eventual supremacy of reason has become so timid that we dare not enter our convictions in the open lists, to win or lose.

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X