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Cops 4: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

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  • trixR4kids
    replied
    Re: Cops 4: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

    Originally posted by Wisko McBadgerton View Post
    I would disagree that you entirely get how stats work, as I think you'd have a different response, but I give up.
    You're the one who used the five coin flip false equivalency to start us off so yeah...

    Your point on it only being 80 cases is well taken and yes there's probably a bit of variance from the average due to it being a smaller sample and not random. But it's still incredibly far off from the average and knowing how these cases always unfold there's zero reason to assume the most drastic variance in your favor. You're also ignoring the grand jury part, grand jury ---> trial happens the vast majority of the time (something like 99%) and that number is definitely not the same for police.
    Last edited by trixR4kids; 06-19-2017, 12:04 PM.

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  • trixR4kids
    replied
    Re: Cops 4: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

    Originally posted by burd View Post
    I think it's usually both. Actual fear plus the requirement that the fear be reasonable under the circumstances. The "under the circumstances" part takes into account the specific facts the officer was dealing with.
    Right, it's just amazing to me that a jury was at 10-2 given the specific facts. Either the prosecutor didn't do a great job of explaining what constitutes a reasonable fear or they thought that reasonable doubt = any doubt whatsoever. I guess we could just blame the jury for being dumb (certainly not impossible) but I'm guessing there's more to it than that.

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  • Wisko McBadgerton
    replied
    Re: Cops 4: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

    Originally posted by trixR4kids View Post
    I get how stats work, ideally we'd have a larger sample. We don't, that study is the best we can do apparently and no 80 isn't that small.

    Most of these cases don't even get to the point where the cop is charged and they just punt the case before a grand jury, that's also not included in these 80. The fact that these cases are even going to trial shows that they're more egregious than the ones that don't even make it there and the idea that the conviction rate being much lower isn't a red flag is something I don't buy I at all. Yes these 80 aren't random or a huge sample but there's really no reason to think the conviction rate is magically higher with a larger sample.
    I would disagree that you entirely get how stats work, as I think you'd have a different response, but I give up.

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  • SJHovey
    replied
    Re: Cops 4: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

    Originally posted by Jimjamesak View Post
    The pox is already on us, the minute anyone proposes legislation to toughen standards every police conservative group cries about how this "makes things tougher for officers! It's unnecessary, you liberals just don't understand how police have to do their jobs!" And there is nothing that can be done about that.
    I'm pretty sure that as recently as 2014 in Minnesota, both houses of the legislature were controlled by the "liberals," as was the Governor's office. Certainly by that date issues relating to police shootings were well-documented, yet the "liberals" did nothing to change the law which might have resulted in a conviction in this particular case.

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  • burd
    replied
    Re: Cops 4: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

    Originally posted by trixR4kids View Post
    I don't think that's what the law is though. There needs to be a REASONABLE fear of danger, ie not what this cop or George Zimmerman faced.
    I think it's usually both. Actual fear plus the requirement that the fear be reasonable under the circumstances. The "under the circumstances" part takes into account the specific facts the officer was dealing with.

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  • Jimjamesak
    replied
    Originally posted by SJHovey View Post
    I'm not criticizing you personally Handy, but the day people throw up their hands and say there is nothing they can do about it because "they" in the government just won't agree to it is the day we've lost. You are definitely not alone in feeling this way. I understand that. In fact, it's one of my primary gripes because too often it feels to me like people working in the government feel that way, too, like they are a separate entity and it's "us versus them." But the legislature is us, and we are the legislature. If we cede that authority, then a pox on us.
    The pox is already on us, the minute anyone proposes legislation to toughen standards every police conservative group cries about how this "makes things tougher for officers! It's unnecessary, you liberals just don't understand how police have to do their jobs!" And there is nothing that can be done about that.

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  • ScoobyDoo
    replied
    Re: Cops 4: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

    Originally posted by trixR4kids View Post
    I don't think that's what the law is though. There needs to be a REASONABLE fear of danger, ie not what this cop or George Zimmerman faced.
    I don't find the "reasonableness" of either of those cases credible. I wonder what I would have done on either jury? I'd like to think I would have hung them both but maybe I would have been persuaded too. Who knows?

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  • trixR4kids
    replied
    Re: Cops 4: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

    Originally posted by ScoobyDoo View Post
    Boiling it down it appears the jury followed the law and the law says if the cop thinks your a threat for any reason whatsoever (you're black, you're hispanic, you mention the word gun in any way, you're scary looking, etc.) they can shoot you. Plain and simple.
    I don't think that's what the law is though. There needs to be a REASONABLE fear of danger, ie not what this cop or George Zimmerman faced.

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  • ScoobyDoo
    replied
    Re: Cops 4: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

    Boiling it down it appears the jury followed the law and the law says if the cop thinks your a threat for any reason whatsoever (you're black, you're hispanic, you mention the word gun in any way, you're scary looking, etc.) they can shoot you. Plain and simple.

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  • SJHovey
    replied
    Re: Cops 4: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

    Originally posted by trixR4kids View Post
    I get how stats work, ideally we'd have a larger sample. We don't, that study is the best we can do apparently and no 80 isn't that small.

    Most of these cases don't even get to the point where the cop is charged and they just punt the case before a grand jury, that's also not included in these 80. The fact that these cases are even going to trial shows that they're more egregious than the ones that don't even make it there and the idea that the conviction rate being much lower isn't a red flag is something I don't buy I at all. Yes these 80 aren't random or a huge sample but there's really no reason to think the conviction rate is magically higher with a larger sample.
    Imho, these conviction statistics posters are citing are all explained by the exact same fact, and certainly not due to any sort of prosecutorial effort, or lack of the same. What these statistics show is that when these incidents are presented to 12 members of the public, the public wants to believe the police officers, they want to think the police officers did the right thing, and they give the officers a tremendous benefit of the doubt. As a result, criminal cases result in a high degree of conviction when it's the cop testifying against the defendant, and a much lower rate of conviction when it's basically the defendant testifying against the cop. Cops serve as our modern day Lancelot. We want to trust and believe in them. It helps us sleep.

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  • trixR4kids
    replied
    Re: Cops 4: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

    Originally posted by Wisko McBadgerton View Post
    Without attempting to correct for a whole slew of variables that exist in this subset of court cases involving cops selected over 12 years, you can say nothing about the conviction rate correlating to the average of all cases last year. There is no mathematical basis for it. Maybe in 50 of the cases the victims were convicted felons and maybe juries only rule in favor of convicted felons 40% of the time. Maybe the laws in 45 of the cases favored the defendants. Maybe the law has been changed in some jurisdictions over that time. Maybe a hundred other things. That too few cops were convicted is a statement of belief based on other things. It could be right, it could be wrong, but it cannot be based on this statistic as despite appearances, there is effectively no probability of correlation between them.
    I get how stats work, ideally we'd have a larger sample. We don't, that study is the best we can do apparently and no 80 isn't that small.

    Most of these cases don't even get to the point where the cop is charged and they just punt the case before a grand jury, that's also not included in these 80. The fact that these cases are even going to trial shows that they're more egregious than the ones that don't even make it there and the idea that the conviction rate being much lower isn't a red flag is something I don't buy I at all. Yes these 80 aren't random or a huge sample but there's really no reason to think the conviction rate is magically higher with a larger sample.

    Leave a comment:


  • SJHovey
    replied
    Re: Cops 4: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

    Originally posted by Handyman View Post
    They can...WE cant. I am not in the legislature and neither are most of the people you are denouncing for "biotching on social media". That is the problem with what you said (or what the whiners said about the protesters on 94) there isnt much else we can do so we might as well get our voice heard somehow.
    I'm not criticizing you personally Handy, but the day people throw up their hands and say there is nothing they can do about it because "they" in the government just won't agree to it is the day we've lost. You are definitely not alone in feeling this way. I understand that. In fact, it's one of my primary gripes because too often it feels to me like people working in the government feel that way, too, like they are a separate entity and it's "us versus them." But the legislature is us, and we are the legislature. If we cede that authority, then a pox on us.

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  • Shirtless Guy
    replied
    Re: Cops 4: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

    This was posted by a facebook friend who lives in the MSP area...I think its a fair explanation of the situation:

    Justice was not served to the Castile family, and the laws governing what is a justified police shooting need to change. Police Officers contain too much broad indiscriminate power to kill fellow citizens under the legal justification that the police officer "...feared for his/her life." Due to the extreme public nature of this case, Ramsey County Attorney John Choi made the correct decision to prosecute this case and bring the facts to the public. After reviewing as much of the case as I could, I do believe the jury made the right determination based on the letter of the law, but the laws need to be changed so that police officers are better trained and encouraged to exercise more restraint, clearer communication and better judgement under pressure. Despite what many people have irresponsibly insinuated, this case had nothing to do with race. Based on the evidence, he was shot seven times for following the cop's conflicting and hasty orders to both get out his ID and get his hands out of his pocket within a matter of seconds. Castile's last words were, "I was not reaching for it." What a tragedy. Philando could be your son, your friend, or even you. It is time to change the laws to make the legal justification for police to use lethal force to be more focused and reasonable.

    I think it basically falls into the same area many are speaking. The result of the trial may not be wrong under the law but that doesn't mean the law is correct. I also stand by my point that by the public giving a police officer a gun, that officer must be held to a higher standard than the rest of us, not a lower one.

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  • Handyman
    replied
    Re: Cops 4: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

    Originally posted by SJHovey View Post
    Pass a law that says "police may only use deadly force in instances of ................"

    Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm not sure cops have a constitutional right to just shoot people. Explain to me exactly why Congress or a state legislature couldn't pass a law severely limiting the instances in which deadly force may be used, beyond the lack of political will to do so.
    They can...WE cant. I am not in the legislature and neither are most of the people you are denouncing for "biotching on social media". That is the problem with what you said (or what the whiners said about the protesters on 94) there isnt much else we can do so we might as well get our voice heard somehow.

    Oh and that reminds me (this isnt about you this is a general rant) any dipwad who even jokes about hitting protesters with their car because they had to deal with being stuck on the highway is scum. Oh poor baby you get little inconvenienced...imagine being Castille or someone like him. Dont like it...too bad.

    As for passing a law, no legislator would do it. They would be seen as "Anti-Cop" and "Soft on Crime". Even if someone did you really see anyone on either side of the aisle willing to tick off the cops or their union? Look at the flack Governor Dayton got from police and the Right because he dared say stuff like this isnt ok after Castille was killed. He literally stood up for the rights of law abiding citizens to not be shot by cops and he was accused of being a cop hater and worsening the divide between the police and those they protect. Not the cop who actually killed the guy mind you...he was "afraid for his life".

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  • SJHovey
    replied
    Re: Cops 4: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

    Originally posted by Handyman View Post
    You realize we cant change the law...we dont have that power. So no offense but biotching on social media is about all we have.
    Pass a law that says "police may only use deadly force in instances of ................"

    Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm not sure cops have a constitutional right to just shoot people. Explain to me exactly why Congress or a state legislature couldn't pass a law severely limiting the instances in which deadly force may be used, beyond the lack of political will to do so.

    Leave a comment:

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