Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

[bostonewe]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Lived and worked in PA years ago, including during the 2000 election. Did some campaign work while I was there. What James Carville said about it years ago remains true today, it's Philadelphia in the East, Pittsburgh in the West, and Alabama everywhere else. The number of rebel flags there 15 years ago was shocking. As more and more race baiters have come out of the woodwork in the wake of 8 years of Barack Obama, it's worse now. It's also one of the oldest states in the country, on average. When I live there the average age was the second oldest in the country and it has only gotten slightly younger in comparison since then, with now 5 states on average older.

Two things will worry me until the morning after election day. One, the Republican voter's tendency to support the R in front of the name more rigidly than the typical Democratic voter. And two, racist idiots did not have one of their own running as a major party candidate in any recent presidential election. The party as a whole tacitly uses racial codewords and themes to scare people into voting for them but I do not believe that Romney or McCain are racist of bigoted. Now the standard bearer in the Republican party is a fascist and a racist. Far too many Republicans will vote for Trump simply because he's the party's nominee, and this is the major party candidate members of the KKK, neo-Nazi parties and every other radical white supremacist group out there have been waiting their whole lives for.

Grew up in rural PA (3 hours North of Philly). Alabama is about right. There are about 3 democrats in my parents district and my parents are 2 of them (they're transplants). It's always a shock to go home after about ~15 years in Boston/New England.

[Slap Shot]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Trump hit a nerve w/Americans and politics.

A nerve of crazy maybe. I'm sorry but anyone sticking to a claim of "he speaks for me" is brain dead. Everyone had a chance to not jump the shark during the primaries, but don't come here pretending that Trump is an actual voice for anything or anyone. He is a charlatan, huckster, con man and used car salesman. Honest to Parise eff him. I don't usually get that animated but honestly with every fiber in my being eff him. You don't have to like Hillary - I sure don't. But don't type a single one word to justify Trump on any level whatsoever. There's nothing to respect there. Nothing.

[walrus]

A nerve of crazy maybe. I'm sorry but anyone sticking to a claim of "he speaks for me" is brain dead. Everyone had a chance to not jump the shark during the primaries, but don't come here pretending that Trump is an actual voice for anything or anyone. He is a charlatan, huckster, con man and used car salesman. Honest to Parise eff him. I don't usually get that animated but honestly with every fiber in my being eff him. You don't have to like Hillary - I sure don't. But don't type a single one word to justify Trump on any level whatsoever. There's nothing to respect there. Nothing.

I don't know, his daughter looks pretty good

[BassAle]

I thought the add was that 1. He wants to lose. 2. He plans on whining about it afterwards. 3. He plans on blaming the Clintons.

He wants to pull a Palin. Once he loses he can make another fortune telling his supporters all the crazy **** they wish was true. He will probably get a xm radio show and guest spot on fox.

[alfablue]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

A nerve of crazy maybe. I'm sorry but anyone sticking to a claim of "he speaks for me" is brain dead. Everyone had a chance to not jump the shark during the primaries, but don't come here pretending that Trump is an actual voice for anything or anyone. He is a charlatan, huckster, con man and used car salesman. Honest to Parise eff him. I don't usually get that animated but honestly with every fiber in my being eff him. You don't have to like Hillary - I sure don't. But don't type a single one word to justify Trump on any level whatsoever. There's nothing to respect there. Nothing.

But you can't dismiss it. A friend of mine is a typical angry R that runs on fear. He was literally yelling at me over Clinton's e-mail issues- as if she was a terrorist or something. When I pointed out that she wasn't the first who did that, nor was he degree as bad as before- the tone really didn't change. These are the people who think that the FBI's comments were a guilty conviction and not a statement that was basically- "it was bad, but not enough for trial".

At the Subway, a guy came up to him and mention "I know what favorite person you are talking with".

And he stands behind Trump's constant attacks on others, as a typical angry white guy who think's his group is constantly under attack. Which, to me, is the idea that they can say and treat anyone as they want to, but don't get into their faces if you are not from their tribe. AKA, the 50's.

These are people you can't just brush off as morons or delusional. They are real. They have to be dealt with.

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Make sure you clarify between Trump's fans and conservatives, whether hard-core or moderate. I do ask that. You did well this time, but others haven't in the past.....

So far this election that distinction is becoming harder to make. Trump is still polling well above 40%. They aren't democrats or liberals voting for him. If you assume the country is divided 50:50 dem/repub, that means 80% of conservatives are still supporting him. Unless Hillary wins in a landslide, your attempt to somehow divorce conservatives and trump rings a bit hollow.

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Amuses me how people misread this election. We will never again see a '64, '72 or '84 type blowout. Even with Trump. So I'll see stupid articles about how "Hillary can't put Trump away". First of all, pollsters and the newsmedia would never allow polls to show a consistent double digit blowout because people would lose interest in the race. Second, as difficult as it may be for some people to wrap their minds around this, including some USCHO posters, Trump has a floor of the low 40's for support. Yes, there are that many people longing for the 1950's or the 1980's out there. His problem is he has a ceiling that's shrinking by the day. This Khan thing is going to have a more lasting impact than people think. No, he won't go below the low 40's at the end of the day, nor will he lose more states than McCain did. However, he's completely alienated the 10% in the middle. Even the hard core Trump supporters can't defend his Gold Star Family attacks. In fact most articles have to put in the disclaimer that they absolutely don't agree with what he said before they get on to the deflecting and spinning.

So, fear not that he won't lose the race by double digits, something that I don't think has happened since 1984. If he keeps this up he's going to take about 8 GOP Senate seats down with him, and almost every Dem seat held by a Gooper in the House (25+). No, Hillary's not going to win Kentucky or other such nonsense, but if she wins the Obama 2008 states give or take one here or there, that would be a **** solid win especially for someone running in the face of history (3rd Dem term, continuity candidate in change election, no woman ever elected previously, etc).

[WeAreNDHockey]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Amuses me how people misread this election. We will never again see a '64, '72 or '84 type blowout. Even with Trump. So I'll see stupid articles about how "Hillary can't put Trump away". First of all, pollsters and the newsmedia would never allow polls to show a consistent double digit blowout because people would lose interest in the race. Second, as difficult as it may be for some people to wrap their minds around this, including some USCHO posters, Trump has a floor of the low 40's for support. Yes, there are that many people longing for the 1950's or the 1980's out there. His problem is he has a ceiling that's shrinking by the day. This Khan thing is going to have a more lasting impact than people think. No, he won't go below the low 40's at the end of the day, nor will he lose more states than McCain did. However, he's completely alienated the 10% in the middle. Even the hard core Trump supporters can't defend his Gold Star Family attacks. In fact most articles have to put in the disclaimer that they absolutely don't agree with what he said before they get on to the deflecting and spinning.

So, fear not that he won't lose the race by double digits, something that I don't think has happened since 1984. If he keeps this up he's going to take about 8 GOP Senate seats down with him, and almost every Dem seat held by a Gooper in the House (25+). No, Hillary's not going to win Kentucky or other such nonsense, but if she wins the Obama 2008 states give or take one here or there, that would be a **** solid win especially for someone running in the face of history (3rd Dem term, continuity candidate in change election, no woman ever elected previously, etc).

A Clinton win/presidency would mean to me a continuation of the political status quo. By that I do not mean a 3rd Obama term though. Yes, policies would be similar and the overall vision, with a few tweaks or changes here or there, would look a lot like what we've seen for the last 8 years. What I'm talking about is simply the continuation of a mostly inertial performance by our government and our society in general.

Much of what gets done now is simply because the entrenched bureaucracy is so large no one from either side of the political aisle can really stop it, short of shutting down the government. But even then, government doesn't really "shut down." It's a little like baseball. Almost no matter what, you're going to lose 40% of your games, and you're going to win 40% of your games. You can affect the other 20% with exceptionally good or bad players or managers.

Short of a 1972 style blowout by Clinton (or a Trump win because then our way of government is over and the winners of the next world war -- if there are any -- will decide out political fate) I don't see this changing.

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

Women without a high school education in this country have a birth rate almost twice as high as those with a 4-year degree.

Ten years ago there were lots of articles predicting the GOP would own the future because while Lilith Liberal is studying for her MCATs, Cyndi-Belle Conservative is getting knocked up with her third redneck rug rat in the back of her daddy's Silverado in the church parking lot. GOP efforts to deny poor whites birth control were a long game GOTV effort.

But it didn't happen and it's not going to happen. Immigrants also have large families in the first couple generations and they are disproportionately Democratic because well duh.

Also, there are different rates of apostasy. Conservative families routinely spin off liberals -- it happens when kids from those families beat the odds and go to college. With college attendance increasing, the rate of conservative defection is commensurately higher (keeping college unaffordable is another GOP GOTV effort).

True, liberal families occasionally spin off conservatives -- 16-year old Chas gets a hold of Heinlein or Rand at lax practice, obsesses over the rape scenes, and his brain freezes on the "master of the universe" fantasy for the rest of his life. But there's a reason the Objectivist Club at every campus only has four members, all male. It's hard for them to find a (willing) mate, and it's only going to be harder as the gender gap widens.

[The Rube]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

A nerve of crazy maybe. I'm sorry but anyone sticking to a claim of "he speaks for me" is brain dead. Everyone had a chance to not jump the shark during the primaries, but don't come here pretending that Trump is an actual voice for anything or anyone. He is a charlatan, huckster, con man and used car salesman. Honest to Parise eff him. I don't usually get that animated but honestly with every fiber in my being eff him. You don't have to like Hillary - I sure don't. But don't type a single one word to justify Trump on any level whatsoever. There's nothing to respect there. Nothing.

I haven't.

And I guess I'm a Trump fan, according to DX, just because I lean conservative. Along with every 4 of my 5 conservative friends.

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

So, fear not that he won't lose the race by double digits, something that I don't think has happened since 1984. If he keeps this up he's going to take about 8 GOP Senate seats down with him, and almost every Dem seat held by a Gooper in the House (25+). No, Hillary's not going to win Kentucky or other such nonsense, but if she wins the Obama 2008 states give or take one here or there, that would be a **** solid win especially for someone running in the face of history (3rd Dem term, continuity candidate in change election, no woman ever elected previously, etc).

I think this is correct. I'd add one thing, though. We will have a another landslide election sometime. They happen when one party gets completely out of sync with the country. FDR's landslides were caused by the Republican party refusing to change their "low taxes / no welfare / no public investment" ideology in the face of the Great Depression.

That sounds very familiar, and it exposes a GOP dilemma: the more they argue the economy is dysfunctional, the more their stale, discredited trickle down ideology drives people away. Even when they spread their message, they lose.

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XV: Before & After: Dancing in the Streets of Philadelphia!

So far this election that distinction is becoming harder to make. Trump is still polling well above 40%. They aren't democrats or liberals voting for him. If you assume the country is divided 50:50 dem/repub, that means 80% of conservatives are still supporting him. Unless Hillary wins in a landslide, your attempt to somehow divorce conservatives and trump rings a bit hollow.

This.