Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

[joecct]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

It looks like Hill won the cities and Bernie taking rural NY. Gee - sounds like November.

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Back in March, dick_nixon gave his analysis of the Democratic race

http://mashable.com/2016/03/20/disas...n-explains-why

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Kep - Tompkins County went 62-38 Bernie

[bronconick]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

Bernie needs to replace Jeff Weaver. He went bat**** crazy on MSNBC.
https://twitter.com/MSNBC/status/722620400329469952

[5mn_Major]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

NY 23 (Ithaca et al) hasn't reported yet. It's going to be very weird.

I assume 10 and 12 are in Manhattan, as both are Drumpf by about 1%. He may actually run every district.

Sounds like Kasich is actually leading in Manhatten (2-3 delegates) with an additional one possible in Albany, Syracuse and Rochester. Latest thinking is 89 to 5 to 0 assuming a good end for Kasich.

[Spartanforlife4]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

Trump will walk away with at least 89 delegates, which moves him from 91 to 95% of 538's target projection.

Next week 538 targets him for just 97 of the 172 available delegates. He's way ahead in Pennsylvania, which has 71 delegates, but apparently Cruz is eyeing to grab a lot of the unbound.

[5mn_Major]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

This is starting to feel pretty much over for Trump and very much over for Clinton. Her speech tonight shows that she has the white house squarely in her sights along the lines of the 75% presidential likelihood that one finds in the prediction markets.

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

How sweet it is! My take on the results:

Democrats: Hillary pretty much wiped her a ss with Bernie's face! All that sanctimonious self centered BS didn't seem to do him much good, as he gave away almost all the delegates he won in small caucus states the last couple of weeks. Democrats have firmly rejected his brand of lunatic policies in the form of the pragmatic progressivism of Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and Elizabeth Warren. Sanders is free to stay in the race of course until she's won the majority of pledged delegates, but I hope he stops carrying water for the Republicans and gets back to issues. Someone (Kep probably) was saying how Sanders attacks on Wall St would play well in NY since those voters have to deal the most with Wall St. Wondering what he thinks of that prediction now. Lastly, he really does need to turf his campaign manager Baghdad Bob. The guy's an embarrassment.

Republicans: Go TRUMP Go! He picked up like 90 delegates and is back on track. If he's at 850 now, the goal of the anti-Trumpers is to keep him under 1000 by after next week, which is going to be hard to do. If he hits that, coupled with an expected sweep in winner take all NJ - his expected win in CA should net him the 1237 he needs.

[joecct]

How sweet it is! My take on the results:

Democrats: Hillary pretty much wiped her a ss with Bernie's face! All that sanctimonious self centered BS didn't seem to do him much good, as he gave away almost all the delegates he won in small caucus states the last couple of weeks. Democrats have firmly rejected his brand of lunatic policies in the form of the pragmatic progressivism of Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and Elizabeth Warren. Sanders is free to stay in the race of course until she's won the majority of pledged delegates, but I hope he stops carrying water for the Republicans and gets back to issues. Someone (Kep probably) was saying how Sanders attacks on Wall St would play well in NY since those voters have to deal the most with Wall St. Wondering what he thinks of that prediction now. Lastly, he really does need to turf his campaign manager Baghdad Bob. The guy's an embarrassment.

Republicans: Go TRUMP Go! He picked up like 90 delegates and is back on track. If he's at 850 now, the goal of the anti-Trumpers is to keep him under 1000 by after next week, which is going to be hard to do. If he hits that, coupled with an expected sweep in winner take all NJ - his expected win in CA should net him the 1237 he needs.

Look at the map. HRC won NYC, tbe surrounding counties, and Albany, Syracuse, Rochester, and Buffalo. The rest of the Empire State went to Bernie, frequently with 60/40 margins.

In fact, the closer to Wall Street, the greater her support.

Wiped his arse? No, not hardly. Won fantasyland? Yep. Meanwhile, the voters who are struggling economically, whose jobs are disappearing, whose paychecks are not keeping up with rising costs for healthcare, gas, food, utilities, taxes, etc. went for Bernie.

A Potemkin candidate is your Hillary.

[geezer]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

Hilly all up in arms shrieking in a voice like rusty ball bearings this morning that Bernie is not allowed to mention her thievery, stupidity, hatefulness, and/or dishonesty, because it will "give ammunition to the Republicans" in the fall. Come again? Where does she get off telling other candidates they're not allowed to campaign? I don't get it.
Besides, wouldn't it be an advantage to figure out ahead of time how she's going to lie her way out of the facts?

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

Hilly all up in arms shrieking in a voice like rusty ball bearings this morning that Bernie is not allowed to mention her thievery, stupidity, hatefulness, and/or dishonesty, because it will "give ammunition to the Republicans" in the fall. Come again? Where does she get off telling other candidates they're not allowed to campaign? I don't get it.
Besides, wouldn't it be an advantage to figure out ahead of time how she's going to lie her way out of the facts?

She should call out the senile sanctimonious stoner. Bernie didn't get his way so he's going to pitch a fit and throw his toys around the room? Great, that should do wonders for the party.

Look at the map. HRC won NYC, tbe surrounding counties, and Albany, Syracuse, Rochester, and Buffalo. The rest of the Empire State went to Bernie, frequently with 60/40 margins.

In fact, the closer to Wall Street, the greater her support.

Wiped his arse? No, not hardly. Won fantasyland? Yep. Meanwhile, the voters who are struggling economically, whose jobs are disappearing, whose paychecks are not keeping up with rising costs for healthcare, gas, food, utilities, taxes, etc. went for Bernie.

A Potemkin candidate is your Hillary.

So Hillary won where people live and Bernie won where they don't. This is a problem....how again?

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

Hilly all up in arms shrieking in a voice like rusty ball bearings this morning that Bernie is not allowed to mention her thievery, stupidity, hatefulness, and/or dishonesty, because it will "give ammunition to the Republicans" in the fall. Come again? Where does she get off telling other candidates they're not allowed to campaign? I don't get it.

Besides, wouldn't it be an advantage to figure out ahead of time how she's going to lie her way out of the facts?

Hillary does come across better, now. She's still terrible in front of a crowd and she has the charisma of a banker turning you down for a mortgage, but in one-on-one interviews when she is relaxed and not trying to mug it up for the camera, she's fine. Her biggest problem is Bill's biggest problem: she is simply inherently untrustworthy. If her opponent is Cruz that zeros out, as he is a comic caricature of "shifty." If her opponent is Drumpf, I actually don't think it matters whether she's honest or not. Drumpf took Jeb to the woodshed and Jeb really didn't do anything wrong. If you fall for his shtick you're going to lap up his critique of Hillary; otherwise you won't. Biff Tannen's target doesn't have any say in the matter.

This was a solid win so Rover deserves to crow all he wants. He still doesn't understand either the legitimate appeal of Sanders or the legitimate criticisms of Hillary, or he's just electioneering and in deflect, distract, deny mode, so it's useless to try to reason with him, but the bottom line is "SCOREBOARD!" and he can yell it out at peak volume. Barring a serious revelation about Hillary she is going to be the nominee. I've tried to make the case concerning her weaknesses and that as liberals we need to demand better from our nominee, but even though it is self-serving she is accidentally correct that it's now time to start drawing together and training our sights on the common enemies of all humanity.

To paraphrase FDR: she may be a son of a b-tch, but she's our son of a b-tch.

[joecct]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

Rover

She won the 1%ers. Bernie won the little people. Or, each won their constituencies.

[unofan]

Rover

She won the 1%ers. Bernie won the little people. Or, each won their constituencies.

Uh, kinda by definition, if she won big, she won way more than the 1 percenters...

[SJHovey]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

Uh, kinda by definition, if she won big, she won way more than the 1 percenters...

Not when you figure in the three card monte dealers too.

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

Not when you figure in the three card monte dealers too.

From my experience, that's half the city right there.

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

Uh, kinda by definition, if she won big, she won way more than the 1 percenters...

I'm going cut joe some slack. He's facing the prospect of Donald freakin' Trump being his party's nominee! If that doesn't hurt, I don't know what does.

Regarding party unity, I say make a deal with Lizzy Warren and screw Sanders. Warren should be the keynote speaker and have a hand in drafting the platform. Sanders can go park cars outside of the convention hall. His self centered idiocy and God complex is something the Dems need to stay far, far away from and there are far more effective progressive voices in the party (the aforementioned Warren for example) who also know how to play ball.