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Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

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  • Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

    Originally posted by mookie1995 View Post
    new poll today has tD beating hilly in ohio
    mookie's losing his fastball! Rover was already lying in wait for somebody to post this.

    "Meanwhile, a trio of swing state Quinnipiac polls show tight races in Florida (Clinton 43%, Trump 42%), Ohio (Trump 43%, Clinton 39%), and Pennsylvania (Clinton 43%, Trump 42%). But the polling samples in those three states are whiter than what they were in 2012, according to the exit polls.
    •Quinnipiac's Florida sample is 69% white -- was 67% in 2012;
    •Quinnipiac's Ohio sample is 83% white -- was 79% in 2012;
    •Quinnipiac's Pennsylvania sample is 81% white -- was 78% in 2012."


    So, much like the Romney campaign's expectations in 2012, we're going to reverse a 36 year trend of minorities making up a greater % of the voters and the electorate is going to be MORE WHITE! Woo hoo!

    Expect to see a lot of lets say "interesting" polling samples this election season. Happens every time.
    Legally drunk???? If its "legal", what's the ------- problem?!? - George Carlin

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    • Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

      Originally posted by Rover View Post
      mookie's losing his fastball! Rover was already lying in wait for somebody to post this.

      "Meanwhile, a trio of swing state Quinnipiac polls show tight races in Florida (Clinton 43%, Trump 42%), Ohio (Trump 43%, Clinton 39%), and Pennsylvania (Clinton 43%, Trump 42%). But the polling samples in those three states are whiter than what they were in 2012, according to the exit polls.
      •Quinnipiac's Florida sample is 69% white -- was 67% in 2012;
      •Quinnipiac's Ohio sample is 83% white -- was 79% in 2012;
      •Quinnipiac's Pennsylvania sample is 81% white -- was 78% in 2012."


      So, much like the Romney campaign's expectations in 2012, we're going to reverse a 36 year trend of minorities making up a greater % of the voters and the electorate is going to be MORE WHITE! Woo hoo!

      Expect to see a lot of lets say "interesting" polling samples this election season. Happens every time.
      Black turnout may go down without Obama on the ticket, though I suspect it would be made up for by increased Hispanic turnout.

      One other thing, though. Raw sample percentages are typically corrected to match expected turnout. Polling methodology is built around representative sampling -- you take the results by cross-tab but then you weight the cross-tabs by expected participation. To take a simplified example, let's say a state typically has 50% male and 50% female voters, and your sample is 60% men who vote {50% D, 50% R} and 40% women who vote {60% D, 40% R}. The reported polling result for Dems will not be .6*.5 + .4*.6 = .54; it will be .5*.5 + .5*.6 = .55. The fact that you contacted more men than women in your sample is an accident that has no predictive value for the general population.
      Last edited by Kepler; 05-10-2016, 09:25 AM.
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      • Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

        Originally posted by mookie1995 View Post
        so.....rolling shows she WAS ahead, and now she's not.
        That's not how rolling averages work.

        By rolling she is still ahead. If there are more polls with her losing eventually it will "catch up." But the idea of rolling averages is not just to capture trending -- it's to correct for outliers by washing them out with additional results.
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        • Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

          Originally posted by Kepler View Post
          Black turnout may go down without Obama on the ticket, though I suspect it would be made up for by increased Hispanic turnout.
          while bubba may have been the first black president, hilly surely wasn't the first black first lady!!! a true sister whoulda cut bubba's banana hooked pecker off at the stump

          (people hate her! roll that )
          a legend and an out of work bum look a lot alike, daddy.

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          • Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

            Originally posted by Kepler View Post
            That's not how rolling averages work.

            By rolling she is still ahead. If there are more polls with her losing eventually it will "catch up." But the idea of rolling averages is not just to capture trending -- it's to correct for outliers by washing them out with additional results.
            well the top line of your linky did exactly that (simple math)
            a legend and an out of work bum look a lot alike, daddy.

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            • Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

              Originally posted by mookie1995 View Post
              (people hate her! roll that )
              They hate Drumpf more.

              The other thing is, people hate Hillary when she's running for things, but they actually kinda like her when she's running things. She seems to run around -20 favorable on the campaign trail and +20 favorable when on the job. She's kinda Opposite Day Dubya.
              Last edited by Kepler; 05-10-2016, 09:33 AM.
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              • Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

                Originally posted by mookie1995 View Post
                well the top line of your linky did exactly that (simple math)
                The top line shows Clinton +3.0, mook. I'm worried about you.
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                • Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

                  Originally posted by Kepler View Post
                  It's a plan, anyway.
                  Time is absolutely right...the best way Clinton can win is not to fall for the trap. Let the child have his tantrum you just stay calm and answer the questions.
                  "It's as if the Drumpf Administration is made up of the worst and unfunny parts of the Cleveland Browns, Washington Generals, and the alien Mon-Stars from Space Jam."
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                  • Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

                    Maybe Sinclair was half wrong.
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                    • Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

                      Originally posted by Kepler View Post
                      Black turnout may go down without Obama on the ticket, though I suspect it would be made up for by increased Hispanic turnout.

                      One other thing, though. Raw sample percentages are typically corrected to match expected turnout. Polling methodology is built around representative sampling -- you take the results by cross-tab but then you weight the cross-tabs by expected participation. To take a simplified example, let's say a state typically has 50% male and 50% female voters, and your sample is 60% men who vote {50% D, 50% R} and 40% women who vote {60% D, 40% R}. The reported polling result for Dems will not be .6*.5 + .4*.6 = .54; it will be .5*.5 + .5*.6 = .55. The fact that you contacted more men than women in your sample is an accident that has no predictive value for the general population.
                      And it was that methodology that showed Romney had a chance 4 years ago despite the fact that people like Nate Silver had it nailed 2 months before the election. Pollsters pretending they know what participation is going to be may have worked 40 years ago when it was easier to predict but with the demographic changes along with socio-economic shifts they might as well be throwing darts at a wall. They have no clue who is going to vote or what the make up of the voters is going to be.
                      "It's as if the Drumpf Administration is made up of the worst and unfunny parts of the Cleveland Browns, Washington Generals, and the alien Mon-Stars from Space Jam."
                      -aparch

                      "Scenes in "Empire Strikes Back" that take place on the tundra planet Hoth were shot on the present-day site of Ralph Engelstad Arena."
                      -INCH

                      Of course I'm a fan of the Vikings. A sick and demented Masochist of a fan, but a fan none the less.
                      -ScoobyDoo 12/17/2007

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                      • Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

                        I don't necessarily think black turnout will go down for two reasons. 1) Obama himself will be campaigning hard to turn them out, and 2) for blacks following Obama with a Dem pretty much cements his legacy. No promises after this year of course but the connection still seems to be there with blacks and Dems especially with an incumbent Dem black guy in the WH.

                        Regarding polls, any poll that shows an electorate makeup far out of the norm regardless of whether you like the result needs to be greeted with a healthy skepticism. Since 1980 minorities have gained 2% of the total voting pie from whities every election cycle. Could that reverse itself this year? Sure. Could it be greater than 2%? Sure. Is it likely? No. A poll should reflect another 2% gain in minority participation out of the total, because that's what's happened for the last 36 years.

                        I've noticed something else too and I'm curious as to why this happens. Whenever somebody puts out a poll showing an unexpected tie race (the Q polls or the one recently showing Hillary inexplicably tied with Trump in Georgia) they always have each candidate polling in the low 40's. 43-42 or 41-40 with a whopping 15-20% undecided. Is there ANY state right now where 20% of the electorate doesn't know which candidate it plans on backing at this time (subject to a game changing revelation or crappy debate performance later on)?
                        Legally drunk???? If its "legal", what's the ------- problem?!? - George Carlin

                        Ever notice how everybody who drives slower than you is an idiot, and everybody who drives faster is a maniac? - George Carlin

                        "I've never seen so much reason and bullsh*t contained in ONE MAN."

                        Comment


                        • Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

                          Originally posted by Kepler View Post
                          Huh. Freep purged everybody who wouldn't bow down to Drumpf.

                          Man, that's gotta hurt -- talk about having to eat a sh-t sandwhich and smile.
                          What the hell is a freeper?
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                          • Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

                            Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
                            What the hell is a freeper?
                            A term used for people associated with The Free Republic. It's likely a derogatory term, because Kep likes to use it, but I'm not certain about that.
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                            • Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

                              Originally posted by Kepler View Post
                              The top line shows Clinton +3.0, mook. I'm worried about you.
                              exactly.

                              it is rolling the average of those last 4 polls. a few of course had their time back in march.

                              now i'm worried about YOU kep
                              a legend and an out of work bum look a lot alike, daddy.

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                              • Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

                                Originally posted by St. Clown View Post
                                A term used for people associated with The Free Republic. It's likely a derogatory term, because Kep likes to use it, but I'm not certain about that.
                                They use it themselves. I mean, yeah, it's derogatory, but only because of what they are. Like "Men's Rights Activist" or "Bostonian."
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