Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

Collapse
This topic is closed.
X
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

    Originally posted by Rover View Post
    Hovey there is zero chance the GOP holds the Senate if Trump gets crushed. Worse yet and what I don't think you're considering is that Trump is going to drive up minority turnout to vote against him as well as anybody with an R next to their name. Already Hispanic voter registration is skyrocketing. Did you think that was happening in anticipation of a Rubio nomination?
    Also, there is supposedly credible evidence that if a voter votes for the same party twice they are for all intents and purposes a lifelong voter for that party. Hispanic population is not just growing, it's very young, and as those new voters hit their first few elections with Drumpf and his rhetoric representing the GOP we could start to see Hispanics voting 75% or higher for the Dems. Those voters are clustered disproportionately in the west, the one part of the country that hasn't been locked into electoral stasis by the culture wars.

    You basically have the fight over the extension of slavery to the west in the 1850s now being re-litigated as a fight over the extension of GOP influence, and demographics are closing the door on the GOP and containing them in the south and prairies.
    Cornell University
    National Champion 1967, 1970
    ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
    Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

    Comment


    • Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

      Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

      To quote Denethor: Flee! Flee for your lives!
      Originally posted by Priceless
      Good to see you're so reasonable.
      Originally posted by ScoobyDoo
      Very well, said.
      Originally posted by Rover
      A fair assessment Bob.

      Comment


      • Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

        I saw this happen in the city of Boston over the years. For far longer than you'd expect, old white conservatives ran Boston (think the Good Will Hunting crowd) even as their % of the total population shrunk. These were the most conservatives Dems this side of Pennsylvania most likely. The trick was they were showing up regularly for city council and mayoral races, so their candidates kept winning. Eventually though the dam broke and one by one they all get swept out of office. Now, some have come to take their place, and its not like the city govt is all run by minority transgender illegal immigrants However, the anti integration, anti abortion people are done. They just don't have the numbers anymore as more liberal people, be it white, black, brown, or green have started to show up more at the polls.

        This is the GOP's white privilege strategy catering to older people. It works for awhile when your people are most likely to show up. Eventually though if you can't attract new voters the dam breaks and you're sh it outta luck. We'll see if that happens with Trump.
        Legally drunk???? If its "legal", what's the ------- problem?!? - George Carlin

        Ever notice how everybody who drives slower than you is an idiot, and everybody who drives faster is a maniac? - George Carlin

        "I've never seen so much reason and bullsh*t contained in ONE MAN."

        Comment


        • Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

          Originally posted by Bob Gray View Post
          Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

          To quote Denethor: Flee! Flee for your lives!
          One thing I'll say about Hillary is that she will govern well. She's just the worst candidate I've ever seen. She should send Bill around as a DH and just stick to policy work.
          Cornell University
          National Champion 1967, 1970
          ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
          Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

          Comment


          • Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

            Originally posted by Kepler View Post
            If I were a movement conservative I'd run a third party candidate for this very reason. Assume the presidency is lost and concentrate on getting as many anti-Dems to the polls as possible to save the Senate. Stall the government for another 4 years and then blame it on Hillary for "being divisive." Come back with a strong, photogenic, competent conservative candidate in 2020.
            Problem is that wont work. It is too late to register to be on the ballot in a bunch of states so such a run is meaningless. No one is going to throw money and time into a campaign this late that has no mathematical chance of winning. That means there will be no one going to the polls to vote out of spite because no one will care.

            The conservatives lost their party and we all get to watch as the GOP crashes and burns.
            "It's as if the Drumpf Administration is made up of the worst and unfunny parts of the Cleveland Browns, Washington Generals, and the alien Mon-Stars from Space Jam."
            -aparch

            "Scenes in "Empire Strikes Back" that take place on the tundra planet Hoth were shot on the present-day site of Ralph Engelstad Arena."
            -INCH

            Of course I'm a fan of the Vikings. A sick and demented Masochist of a fan, but a fan none the less.
            -ScoobyDoo 12/17/2007

            Comment


            • Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

              Remember what happened to the animator in "Monty Python and the Holy Grail"?
              CCT '77 & '78
              4 kids
              5 grandsons (BCA 7/09, CJA 5/14, JDL 8/14, JFL 6/16, PJL 7/18)
              1 granddaughter (EML 4/18)

              ”Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both.”
              - Benjamin Franklin

              Banned from the St. Lawrence University Facebook page - March 2016 (But I got better).

              I want to live forever. So far, so good.

              Comment


              • Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

                Originally posted by Rover View Post
                I saw this happen in the city of Boston over the years. For far longer than you'd expect, old white conservatives ran Boston (think the Good Will Hunting crowd) even as their % of the total population shrunk. These were the most conservatives Dems this side of Pennsylvania most likely. The trick was they were showing up regularly for city council and mayoral races, so their candidates kept winning. Eventually though the dam broke and one by one they all get swept out of office.
                I cast my one and to this date only Republican vote for Bill Weld when he ran against John Silber. That was about the time of the deathnell of all those Southie morons.
                Cornell University
                National Champion 1967, 1970
                ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
                Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

                Comment


                • Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

                  Originally posted by Rover View Post
                  Hovey there is zero chance the GOP holds the Senate if Trump gets crushed. Worse yet and what I don't think you're considering is that Trump is going to drive up minority turnout to vote against him as well as anybody with an R next to their name. Already Hispanic voter registration is skyrocketing. Did you think that was happening in anticipation of a Rubio nomination?
                  I don't disagree. That's why I thought the Senate would be wise to negotiate with Obama on the Supreme's nomination. Obama would be happy to sell out the left just to say he put one more person on the Court.
                  That community is already in the process of dissolution where each man begins to eye his neighbor as a possible enemy, where non-conformity with the accepted creed, political as well as religious, is a mark of disaffection; where denunciation, without specification or backing, takes the place of evidence; where orthodoxy chokes freedom of dissent; where faith in the eventual supremacy of reason has become so timid that we dare not enter our convictions in the open lists, to win or lose.

                  Comment


                  • Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

                    Originally posted by Handyman View Post
                    Problem is that wont work. It is too late to register to be on the ballot in a bunch of states so such a run is meaningless. No one is going to throw money and time into a campaign this late that has no mathematical chance of winning. That means there will be no one going to the polls to vote out of spite because no one will care.

                    The conservatives lost their party and we all get to watch as the GOP crashes and burns.
                    I'm sure an existing national third party would be happy to have a high name recognition candidate on its ballot. Rand Paul could run as a Libertarian (on the ballot in 48 states) and/or Ted Cruz could run as a Constitution Party (on the ballot in 30 states) nominee. They could have a contest to see if they could outdraw each other / Drumpf. Hillary would win big in the EC but she probably wouldn't even crack 50% of the popular vote, and down-ticket Republicans would make hay.
                    Cornell University
                    National Champion 1967, 1970
                    ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
                    Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

                    Comment


                    • Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

                      Never voted straight ticket, but this year is going to be close. Wouldn't vote for Drumpf in a million years, Grassley is no longer a moderate, and my House rep and state representatives (all Rs) are putzes.

                      Normally there's some down ticket race, like State Ag Secretary or something, that I can comfortably vote GOP on. Not sure if that's up this year or not, though.

                      Comment


                      • Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

                        Originally posted by SJHovey View Post
                        I don't disagree. That's why I thought the Senate would be wise to negotiate with Obama on the Supreme's nomination. Obama would be happy to sell out the left just to say he put one more person on the Court.
                        This could still happen; there is no question Obama wants to cement his legacy with a third justice.

                        I would like the Democrats to urge him to promise (in secret if need be) to withdraw Garland if Hillary wins the election. The GOP should not be allowed to both have it cake by blocking and then eat it by taking the best deal they can get during the actual lame duck. As funny as that exposure of their hypocrisy would be, it's not worth having an older centrist when Hillary and a friendly Senate could move in a liberal Thomas.
                        Last edited by Kepler; 05-04-2016, 11:29 AM.
                        Cornell University
                        National Champion 1967, 1970
                        ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
                        Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

                        Comment


                        • Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

                          Originally posted by unofan View Post
                          Never voted straight ticket, but this year is going to be close. Wouldn't vote for Drumpf in a million years, Grassley is no longer a moderate, and my House rep and state representatives (all Rs) are putzes.

                          Normally there's some down ticket race, like State Ag Secretary or something, that I can comfortably vote GOP on. Not sure if that's up this year or not, though.
                          Until I moved to MD there was always a downticket Green or even Libertarian in NY, MA, CA, NC or OR that got my vote. For whatever reason those state parties are horrible here (in all honesty all the state parties in MD are a joke), so I've been voting straight ticket Democratic for a decade now. On the one hand it feels lame; on the other hand it's kinda fun to actually win sometimes. I think between 1982 and 1988 I didn't back a single winning candidate at any level (I never vote for unopposed candidates regardless of party).
                          Cornell University
                          National Champion 1967, 1970
                          ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
                          Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Kepler View Post
                            Until I moved to MD there was always a downticket Green or even Libertarian in NY, MA, CA, NC or OR that got my vote. For whatever reason those state parties are horrible here (in all honesty all the state parties in MD are a joke), so I've been voting straight ticket Democratic for a decade now. On the one hand it feels lame; on the other hand it's kinda fun to actually win sometimes. I think between 1982 and 1988 I didn't back a single winning candidate at any level (I never vote for unopposed candidates regardless of party).
                            It's tough to lose a state wide race as a Dem in Maryland. The federal races are now the same - unless you're in MD-1.
                            CCT '77 & '78
                            4 kids
                            5 grandsons (BCA 7/09, CJA 5/14, JDL 8/14, JFL 6/16, PJL 7/18)
                            1 granddaughter (EML 4/18)

                            ”Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both.”
                            - Benjamin Franklin

                            Banned from the St. Lawrence University Facebook page - March 2016 (But I got better).

                            I want to live forever. So far, so good.

                            Comment


                            • Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

                              Originally posted by Kepler View Post
                              This could still happen; there is no question Obama wants to cement his legacy with a third justice.

                              I would like the Democrats to urge him to promise (in secret if need be) to withdraw Garland if Hillary wins the election. The GOP should not be allowed to both have it cake by blocking and then eat it by taking the best deal they can get during the actual lame duck. As funny as that exposure of their hypocrisy would be, it's not worth having an older centrist when Hillary and a friendly Senate could move in a liberal Thomas.
                              In theory this is a concern but the more I thought about it GOP dysfunction won't let it happen. They haven't even held hearings on the guy. There's no way they do that after the election and including the Christmas break. Especially when I believe you'd need unanimous consent to move things along quicker. I also don't picture them putting him up for a vote without a hearing. The only way Garland gets on the court is if 1) Obama makes a recess appointment and he serves for a few months, or 2) Hillary agrees to renominate him next year, and I'm not sure she will.
                              Legally drunk???? If its "legal", what's the ------- problem?!? - George Carlin

                              Ever notice how everybody who drives slower than you is an idiot, and everybody who drives faster is a maniac? - George Carlin

                              "I've never seen so much reason and bullsh*t contained in ONE MAN."

                              Comment


                              • Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

                                As soon as the GOP stupidly made its play, they've been playing with fire. If they hold up Garland for essentially 11 months under the pretext that "The people deserve a voice" then Hillary should nominate the libbiest lib that ever libbed, especially if the Dems gain hold of the Senate.

                                If the GOP doesn't act hypocritically at that point and allows the vote, great. If they all of a sudden filibuster, then the Dems would be well within their right to go nuclear, which frankly would not be a bad thing, either.

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X