Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

[bronconick]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

I'm not even sure he'll carry half the states Romney did...

We are not in any danger of a Donald Trump presidency...

The poll a month ago that showed Trump losing Utah by 5 in a general election in November (because Mormons think Trump is the scum of the earth) was an eye opener.

[BassAle]

When it comes to Gore, he came off as smarmy. Bush hadn't yet proved himself to be a bad President, and some people might've thought they were getting his father's clone in office.

As for Kerry, Iraq hadn't yet proven to be a complete sh**show, and so many people were still very gung ho on rooting out terrorism and Islamic everything, that at that point, they overlooked Bush's treatment of domestic issues, which still hadn't hit their trough. The worst things we remember about Bush's domestic policies didn't happen until after 2004. And Kerry simply wasn't that impressive of a candidate.

Re: Iraq - it was clear it was a war of choice vs people that had nothing to do with 9/11

[BassAle]

Bull-****ing-****. Anyone with a brain knew what they were getting with W and it was exactly what we got. Hell, The Onion predicted the Iraq War the day he was inaugurated. Any narrative white-washing of "we just didn't know" is people being embarrassed they voted wrong and ****ed our country.

Yup.

[unofan]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

Those idiots are a very small minority and even they will end up voting.

What state is Drumpf going to win that Obama won?

The biggest Bernie supporter on my Facebook feed is one of those idiots. He's already saying he'll vote 3rd party come November (granted, he's in Nebraska so his vote's almost meaningless, though he's also in Omaha, which did go for Obama in 2008). Also in fairness, the 2nd biggest Sanders supporter on my Facebook feed has said he'll vote for Hillary over any Republican, so you may be right that it's a small minority.

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

The biggest Bernie supporter on my Facebook feed is one of those idiots. He's already saying he'll vote 3rd party come November (granted, he's in Nebraska so his vote's almost meaningless, though he's also in Omaha, which did go for Obama in 2008). Also in fairness, the 2nd biggest Sanders supporter on my Facebook feed has said he'll vote for Hillary over any Republican, so you may be right that it's a small minority.

I have said it multiple times, if Minnesota is ever in play (it wont be) I will vote Hillary and I think most level headed Bernie people agree.

The thing is a lot of the Bernie supporters wouldnt be voting much anyways. If they stay home Hillary doesnt actually lose anything. I loathe saying it but Rover is right on that point.

Barring Hillary being indicted the smart money is on her and I would bet there wont be much sweating it either.

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

You have yet to be right about any thing in this election...in fact you havent even been close on one of your grand predictions. With your track record we dont need to run the election Hillary has already won in a landslide

It's interesting to me that somehow Hillary is this can't lose candidate with a hatred rating that makes Kerry and Gore look beloved. We all knew what we were getting with W and we still elected him. We all elected him a second time. Trump has more charisma than W, and more name recognition.

The only thing Hillary has going for her is the demographics are different. If this was 2000, Trump would be a lock.

[bronconick]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

The only thing Hillary has going for her is the demographics are different.

Um, duh? The demographics are what is killing the Republicans on a Presidential scale. Trump is just exacerbating it by alienating Latinos and likely spending months insulting a woman as crudely as possible.

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

The only thing Hillary has going for her is the demographics are different.

And if JFK ran in 1920 he'd have lost in a landslide because people wouldn't elect a Catholic.

[unofan]

It's interesting to me that somehow Hillary is this can't lose candidate with a hatred rating that makes Kerry and Gore look beloved. We all knew what we were getting with W and we still elected him. We all elected him a second time. Trump has more charisma than W, and more name recognition.

The only thing Hillary has going for her is the demographics are different. If this was 2000, Trump would be a lock.

I disagree. Hillary is a different candidate than Gore. He was a stiff hack that only showed personality when he started doing Futurama voice overs, while Hilary is closer to Obama cause she does have some "firsts" going for her.

[bronconick]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

Barbara Boxer✔@BarbaraBoxer
Cruz/Fiorina= a perfect match. He wants to ship immigrants out and she's a champion at shipping jobs out.
5:29 PM - 27 Apr 2016

Barbara Boxer
✔
@BarbaraBoxer

I predict that the latest @CarlyFiorina merger will be as successful as her last one.
5:33 PM - 27 Apr 2016

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

It's interesting to me that somehow Hillary is this can't lose candidate with a hatred rating that makes Kerry and Gore look beloved. We all knew what we were getting with W and we still elected him. We all elected him a second time. Trump has more charisma than W, and more name recognition.

The only thing Hillary has going for her is the demographics are different. If this was 2000, Trump would be a lock.

Nice dodge...still waiting for that Walker landslide you predicted and that Hillary indictment you called. It doesnt matter how much you are hated if someone is hated more.

[5mn_Major]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

When it comes to Gore, he came off as smarmy. Bush hadn't yet proved himself to be a bad President, and some people might've thought they were getting his father's clone in office.

As for Kerry, Iraq hadn't yet proven to be a complete sh**show, and so many people were still very gung ho on rooting out terrorism and Islamic everything, that at that point, they overlooked Bush's treatment of domestic issues, which still hadn't hit their trough. The worst things we remember about Bush's domestic policies didn't happen until after 2004. And Kerry simply wasn't that impressive of a candidate.

And Bush wasn't smarmy? He came across as a used car salesman hick.

W got in because he came on the tail of 8 years of Clinton fatigue (in part due to a successful GOP whitewash)...and the fact that demographics of baby boomers outweighed minorities. Over the next 15 years, that would change.

Um, duh? The demographics are what is killing the Republicans on a Presidential scale. Trump is just exacerbating it by alienating Latinos and likely spending months insulting a woman as crudely as possible.

Story of the election.

I agree that it was a tragic mistake to elect W, one for which we are still paying a price, but a lot of Dems supported that invasion. Very few stood up to the idiots playing the patriot card.

I was overseas in the lead up to Iraq. When I came back it was kind of like invasion of the body snatchers. I spent a couple of months trying to understand what happened to people and convince them of the dangers of a potential war. I had much less success convincing people than a couple of years of war did...after that many seemed to have false memories that they were in fact against the war all along.

[Slap Shot]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

...and in doing so you just told 15M of the most loyal party voters that their opinions are worthless...

Truth hurts?

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

And Bush wasn't smarmy? He came across as a used car salesman hick.

To us, but a portion of the country really bought his Cracker Barrel shtick. My co-workers revere him as a "good man" who was done in by "bad advisors." I sh-t thee not, they think he was the Second Coming.

This is one of those things where the Hill People and the Valley People see the world differently.

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

From Captain Obvious:

In the swing states that matter most in the presidential race, Donald Trump doesn’t have a prayer against Hillary Clinton in the general election.
That’s according to top operatives, strategists and activists in 10 battleground states who participated in this week’s POLITICO Caucus. Nearly 90 percent of them said Clinton would defeat Trump in their home states in a November match-up.

Republicans are only slightly more bullish on Trump’s prospects than Democrats: More than three-quarters of GOP insiders expect Clinton to best the Republican front-runner in a general-election contest in their respective states. Among Democrats, the belief is nearly universal: 99 percent of surveyed said will Clinton will beat Trump.

In three of the biggest swing states—Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida—Republicans were particularly downbeat about the prospect of a Trump-Clinton contest.

“There is positively no way for Trump to win in Pennsylvania,” said a Republican from that state.

“Trump cannot and will not carry Ohio,” a Republican from that state insisted. “He will do well in Appalachia and in the Mahoning Valley but he will get killed in the rest of the state. The danger for the GOP is losing Rob Portman which is a very real possibility under this match-up.”

Added a Florida Republican, who like all participants was granted anonymity in order to speak freely, “Trump is grinding the GOP to a stub. He couldn't find enough xenophobic, angry white Floridians to beat Hillary in Florida if he tried.”