Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

Are you saying then that they will just let it be and hope for the best?

It isn't as if they have a sure fire winner being blocked by those two.

What choice do they have? If they screw Drumpf they lose too many voters they might as well run no one. They made their bed they have to sleep in it now.

What they dont have to do is drum up a lot of support for him though. They can let him have have his ego play but they should spend their time worried about the lower elections that are in trouble when he is on the ticket.

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

That's a pretty high probability for the Cubs there...

He said "in the World Series" not winning it

[unofan]

That's a pretty high probability for the Cubs there...

I say this as a life long Cubs fan who has been stung numerous times: I'd give those odds for just the next five years, let alone through 2050.

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

What choice do they have? If they screw Drumpf they lose too many voters they might as well run no one. They made their bed they have to sleep in it now.

What they dont have to do is drum up a lot of support for him though. They can let him have have his ego play but they should spend their time worried about the lower elections that are in trouble when he is on the ticket.

To be well and truly cynical they finally allow the base their turn with Drumpf, watch him get destroyed while holding on to however much of Congress they can, then have another "autopsy" that declares the party has to go back to Bidness As Usual.

That's how the Democrats wound up with (and won with) a southern conservative in 1976. McGovern's huge loss discredited the left.

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

To be well and truly cynical they finally allow the base their turn with Drumpf, watch him get destroyed while holding on to however much of Congress they can, then have another "autopsy" that declares the party has to go back to Bidness As Usual.

That's how the Democrats wound up with (and won with) a southern conservative in 1976. McGovern's huge loss discredited the left.

If I was their strategist that is what I would go with. They just went through a year long clown show on national television trying to figure out the best which split the coalition 6 ways from Sunday. The base made sure the final candidates were basically unelectable even against someone as divisive as Hillary *** Clinton! There is not a 'Good Ole Boy" Establishment type that was worth a **** either so no White Knights here. The GOP is pot committed to Drumpf, now they have to play it to the River then reassess. Their resources should be going towards elections that are winnable.

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

Think of it this way. I don't see Trump getting any less votes than the average of the last 3 GOP candidates. Bush drew 62M in '04, McCain a little under 60M in '08, and Mittens about 61M in '12. Yes about 1M GOP voters will have "aged out" (aka gone the way of Old Pio) between 2012 and 2016 but Trump might have stronger appeal amongst blue collar whities than Romney.

That ought to be enough to hold the House. Win the Romney districts + entrenched incumbents in swing districts and you keep a GOP majority. Even if he runs a screwy campaign. Where the GOP is going to wind up hurting is Hispanics coming out looking to kick some tail in unprecedented #'s. This might bump Hillary's vote totals above Obama's 66M in 2012. Any Republican sitting in a district where registration is ticking up should be getting nervous. There's going to be no running away from Trump as he seeks to maximize the angry old white guy vote.

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

Here is a table of popular vote going back to 1940.

I don't think we have any way of predicting how a Clinton-Drumpf election will go. Drumpf does scratch the anti-establishment itch, while Clinton is the epitome of the establishment. Clinton may have a built-in advantage, though. If the economy and the world situation improve between now and November, she can emphasize her continuity with Obama as his third term. If things get shaky, people will become nervous that Drumpf isn't up to the job.

Also, Drumpf has to pick a Veep and insofar as it matters at all it can only hurt him. If he picks an establishment player he undercuts his identity, but if he picks somebody weird he exacerbates the worry that he's a loon.

The two things that may come out of this are Latinos and Millenials voting overwhelmingly Democratic, whereas where do the Republicans pick up new voters? The kind of blue collar voter who categorically distrusts Washington and is activated by attacks on immigrants minorities was already safely Republican by 2008. They will come out in greater numbers for Drumpf than Romney. Meanwhile, liberals who despite being disappointed with Obama still supported him might stay home rather than vote for Hillary. But we are going to have six months of every Democratic leader and liberal opinion maker, including most likely both Sanders and Warren, drumming home that we cannot let Drumpf tip the SCOTUS balance or get hold of the levers of immigration and health care policy, and we still have 2000 as an object lesson of what happens if you fall asleep at the switch.

Plus there's, you know, this.

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

Here is a table of popular vote going back to 1940.

I don't think we have any way of predicting how a Clinton-Drumpf election will go. Drumpf does scratch the anti-establishment itch, while Clinton is the epitome of the establishment. Clinton may have a built-in advantage, though. If the economy and the world situation improve between now and November, she can emphasize her continuity with Obama as his third term. If things get shaky, people will become nervous that Drumpf isn't up to the job.

I think the relative uniformity of GOP candidate vote totals is telling. They seem to be stuck in the 60-61M range. That's because they're not adding to their base and its aging. Trump could be a game changer in a way that Cruz would not. However, he's going to struggle mightily to even equal Romney's #'s amongst minority voters. Trump's goal then becomes driving down the vote totals that Obama received back to 2004/John Kerry levels. I'm not sure you can expect to reduce vote totals back to levels last seen 12 years earlier especially with a couple of million new lefty leaning millennials joining the voting pool.

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

Here is a table of popular vote going back to 1940.

I don't think we have any way of predicting how a Clinton-Drumpf election will go. Drumpf does scratch the anti-establishment itch, while Clinton is the epitome of the establishment. Clinton may have a built-in advantage, though. If the economy and the world situation improve between now and November, she can emphasize her continuity with Obama as his third term. If things get shaky, people will become nervous that Drumpf isn't up to the job.

Also, Drumpf has to pick a Veep and insofar as it matters at all it can only hurt him. If he picks an establishment player he undercuts his identity, but if he picks somebody weird he exacerbates the worry that he's a loon.

The two things that may come out of this are Latinos and Millenials voting overwhelmingly Democratic, whereas where do the Republicans pick up new voters? The kind of blue collar voter who categorically distrusts Washington and is activated by attacks on immigrants minorities was already safely Republican by 2008. They will come out in greater numbers for Drumpf than Romney. Meanwhile, liberals who despite being disappointed with Obama still supported him might stay home rather than vote for Hillary. But we are going to have six months of every Democratic leader and liberal opinion maker, including most likely both Sanders and Warren, drumming home that we cannot let Drumpf tip the SCOTUS balance or get hold of the levers of immigration and health care policy, and we still have 2000 as an object lesson of what happens if you fall asleep at the switch.

Plus there's, you know, this.

No one is staying home on the Left, the Right guaranteed that when they made this election about the Supreme Court. No one that is center, left of center or fully lefty wants to risk Drumpf deciding who fills the vacant seat.

[BassAle]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

No one is staying home on the Left, the Right guaranteed that when they made this election about the Supreme Court. No one that is center, left of center or fully lefty wants to risk Drumpf deciding who fills the vacant seat.

I just read through a **** storm of "Bernie or Bust" "Never Hillary" idiots posting on an NPR article about Bernie shedding campaign staff. They were also outraged that NPR would even run the article and claimed it was showing their "anti Bernie bias". I'm seriously worried about these idiots. Lots of them seemed to think there was some kind of conspiracy against Bernie, and NPR was in on it. I'm a Bernie fan, but I know he isn't going to be the nominee and I sure as hell am going to vote for Hillary in the general.

[geezer]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

I just read through a **** storm of "Bernie or Bust" "Never Hillary" idiots posting on an NPR article about Bernie shedding campaign staff. They were also outraged that NPR would even run the article and claimed it was showing their "anti Bernie bias". I'm seriously worried about these idiots. Lots of them seemed to think there was some kind of conspiracy against Bernie, and NPR was in on it. I'm a Bernie fan, but I know he isn't going to be the nominee and I sure as hell am going to vote for Hillary in the general.

The seven stages of grief are a reasonable response to the fact that Hillary and tDonald are (seriously?) the best two candidates the United States of America can put forth for the office of President. Give them a couple months to work through it.

[5mn_Major]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

This still will be a very interesting campaign season...and I could see Trump making it closer than it should be. If Trump can control his messages, he can be quite effective in executing on them. Keep in mind that he has just successfully cast the most ideological outsider, Cruz, as the most wishy washy establishment candidate possible.

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

I just read through a **** storm of "Bernie or Bust" "Never Hillary" idiots posting on an NPR article about Bernie shedding campaign staff. They were also outraged that NPR would even run the article and claimed it was showing their "anti Bernie bias". I'm seriously worried about these idiots. Lots of them seemed to think there was some kind of conspiracy against Bernie, and NPR was in on it. I'm a Bernie fan, but I know he isn't going to be the nominee and I sure as hell am going to vote for Hillary in the general.

That is easily solved by Bernie endorsing Hillary at the convention.

I'm more worried about non-activist liberals who simply sit it out when they see a CEO-type on the ticket. They are harder to convince because frankly they know all the arguments and this makes sense to them.

My hope is they are canceled out by the kind of super-fundy right voter who won't support someone with Drumpf's obvious disdain for religion.

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

I just read through a **** storm of "Bernie or Bust" "Never Hillary" idiots posting on an NPR article about Bernie shedding campaign staff. They were also outraged that NPR would even run the article and claimed it was showing their "anti Bernie bias". I'm seriously worried about these idiots. Lots of them seemed to think there was some kind of conspiracy against Bernie, and NPR was in on it. I'm a Bernie fan, but I know he isn't going to be the nominee and I sure as hell am going to vote for Hillary in the general.

Never underestimate the hatred for Hillary Clinton. GOP voters are more likely to pull the lever for their guy no matter what than Dem voters are (see Nader).

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XI: the Two Party Problem

Never underestimate the hatred for Hillary Clinton. GOP voters are more likely to pull the lever for their guy no matter what than Dem voters are (see Nader).

But those voters don't fear Hillary, they just hate her. Whereas they actually feared Obama was going to pull off his face at the inauguration and reveal the mark of the Beast.

Fear gets people to the polls. If hate was enough Dubya would have been a one-termer.