Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools?

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Jesus how arrogant do you have to be than to assume you know what every voter thinks and feels and who they "truly" align with.

Tendencies, Handy, nothing more. You may personally be a Buddhist Tea Party Libertarian (120 million voters -- there's gotta be one). Whenever anybody talks about sociological behavior they're talking about statistical tendencies over large n. YMMV.

[burd]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Its the big game. Will Trump throw an interception?

He's been hitting linebackers between the numbers all over the place, and the home crowd seems to think that's great passing.

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

The good news for Jeb is that he doesn't have to win the Hispanics. He just needs to win enough of them to make the difference in FL, CO, AZ, NM and even OH or VA.

He has no prayer of winning enough of them to do jack sh !t. Mittens got crushed with Hispanics merely for this "self-deportation" comments. Jebbers! wants to end birthright citizenship AND most likely build a giant wall. His party is even worse. I feel you and Kep are putting too much faith in the guy, much like pundidiotry tends to do. All he can hope for is that they don't vote.

So, doing the math, ANY Gooper who's nominated, even Trump, should win the 60M votes that both McCain and Romney won. The problem is Dems will be ringing in a vote count closer to 70M holding everything steady + new Dem leaning voters entering the pool. While Bob, etc are correct that some people switch their vote, I feel we are way past the point where 5M-10M or more people will swing from voting for Obama last time to Jebbers!/Trump/Walker this time. That's a huge ideological leap.

So, to win (and yes I already know popular vote doesn't decide the Presidency) the GOP needs 10M people, or about 15% of the Dem coalition, to stay home. Not impossible, but that's asking a LOT, especially when the more indifferent voters (minorities) are being held up as what's wrong with this country by the GOP.

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

He's been hitting linebackers between the numbers all over the place, and the home crowd seems to think that's great passing.

That's because he doesn't care which team wins, as long as he appears in the box score on every play.

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Jebbers! wants to end birthright citizenship

Not true. Jeb is the one GOP candidate defending birthright citizenship as a Constitutional right. That's what makes him the strongest candidate if he can get the nomination. The issue for Yeb! is whether he can get the nomination when he holds a view that is out of alignment with Republican activists who tend to be overrepresented in the primaries and who dominate the caucuses.

For better or worse Jeb has staked out the territory of sanity on immigration -- he admits there are big problems but doesn't want to bulldoze families and throw out the overwhelming majority of good people who are here just to try to snag the American Dream even if it means sneaking over the border, because they are running from violence, chaos, and poverty back home. He's actually making the right distinction. Now, he may be doing it simply because of the undeniable demographic math, but who cares -- Lincoln didn't love black people and the Emancipation Proclamation is a political document, but bravo for amoral process moral result.

[geezer]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

So if Trump is in...you're voting Hillary?

No doubt. Sloppy record-keeping notwithstanding, Hillary is still ten times the man that The Donald is, not to mention a more serious and dignified leader. I think I'd actually vote for her more easily than some of the more full-bore liberals around here would.

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

No doubt. Sloppy record-keeping notwithstanding, Hillary is still ten times the man that The Donald is, not to mention a more serious and dignified leader. I think I'd actually vote for her more easily than some of the more full-bore liberals around here would.

More easily than I, anyway. When I pull the level for Hillary it's going to be the most reluctant vote I've cast. Anything to keep the White Walkers at bay.

[geezer]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

More easily than I, anyway. When I pull the level for Hillary it's going to be the most reluctant vote I've cast. Anything to keep the White Walkers at bay.

If they were both nominated, I see it as two a battle between problematic personalities, but Hillary's communication difficulties are hiding a smart, capable leader while Trump's are masking an insanely narcissistic madman. I'm certainly hoping we'd reject the Lex Luthor campaign (wait, is he fully bald under there?). If Trump were elected... I don't know.

[burd]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

That's because he doesn't care which team wins, as long as he appears in the box score on every play.

Good point, Kep, but how do you explain the home crowd's cheers?

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Not true. Jeb is the one GOP candidate defending birthright citizenship as a Constitutional right. That's what makes him the strongest candidate if he can get the nomination. The issue for Yeb! is whether he can get the nomination when he holds a view that is out of alignment with Republican activists who tend to be overrepresented in the primaries and who dominate the caucuses.

For better or worse Jeb has staked out the territory of sanity on immigration -- he admits there are big problems but doesn't want to bulldoze families and throw out the overwhelming majority of good people who are here just to try to snag the American Dream even if it means sneaking over the border, because they are running from violence, chaos, and poverty back home. He's actually making the right distinction. Now, he may be doing it simply because of the undeniable demographic math, but who cares -- Lincoln didn't love black people and the Emancipation Proclamation is a political document, but bravo for amoral process moral result.

Apologies, he just wants to crack down on "anchor babies" which is the same thing only he wouldn't pursue a Constitutional amendment. A regular Profile in Courage there...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/...b055a6dab2e315


"Jeb Bush said while he supports granting birthright citizenship to the children of immigrants, the policy needs "greater enforcement" to prevent "abuse."



Appearing on Bill Bennett's radio show Wednesday, the former Florida governor and current Republican presidential hopeful said he backs cracking down on potential exploitation of the immigration system.



"If there's fraud or if there's abuse, if people are bringing, pregnant women are coming in to have babies simply because they can do it, then there ought to be greater enforcement," he said. "That's the legitimate side of this. Better enforcement so that you don't have these, you know, 'anchor babies,' as they're described, coming into the country."


Bush made similar remarks Tuesday, calling birthright citizenship a "constitutionally protected right," but adding that there should be a "targeted way" to "solve abuses, of people coming into the country so their children can become citizens."
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He's screwed. Then he tried to clumsily explain he really only meant Asians.

[Bob Gray]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

More easily than I, anyway. When I pull the level for Hillary it's going to be the most reluctant vote I've cast. Anything to keep the White Walkers at bay.

Same here (unless it's Trump) on the other side of things. 8 years of Obama has massively damaged this nation and it may already be too late, but 12 years in a row of the same would likely be fatal.

White Walkers? You probably want to use scare tactics that aren't so obscure next time.