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2012 Presidential Election Part II -- Charlotte, a National Treasure or sede vacante

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  • Old Pio
    replied
    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part II -- Charlotte, a National Treasure or sede vaca

    Originally posted by walrus View Post
    Kenneth to my friends
    Fake but accurate

    Leave a comment:


  • walrus
    replied
    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part II -- Charlotte, a National Treasure or sede vaca

    Originally posted by Kepler View Post
    Walrus, what's the frequency?
    Kenneth to my friends

    Leave a comment:


  • Kepler
    replied
    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part II -- Charlotte, a National Treasure or sede vaca

    Originally posted by walrus View Post
    Did Dan Rather run the poll?
    Walrus, what's the frequency?

    Leave a comment:


  • walrus
    replied
    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part II -- Charlotte, a National Treasure or sede vaca

    Originally posted by Kepler View Post
    The GOP better pray to God the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac polling released today is wrong. Really, really wrong.

    Pennsylvania: Obama +12
    Ohio: Obama +10
    Florida: Obama +9

    RCP's poll of polls now has Ohio > 5%, moving it out of toss-up entirely. Florida is 3.1%. Both states are currently higher than Obama's margin in 2008.
    Did Dan Rather run the poll?

    Leave a comment:


  • ScoobyDoo
    replied
    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part II -- Charlotte, a National Treasure or sede vaca

    Originally posted by Kepler View Post
    The GOP better pray to God the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac polling released today is wrong. Really, really wrong.

    Pennsylvania: Obama +12
    Ohio: Obama +10
    Florida: Obama +9

    RCP's poll of polls now has Ohio > 5%, moving it out of toss-up entirely. Florida is 3.1%. Both states are currently higher than Obama's margin in 2008.
    Those are percentages. They're meaningless.

    Leave a comment:


  • FlagDUDE08
    replied
    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part II -- Charlotte, a National Treasure or sede vaca

    Originally posted by Kepler View Post
    The GOP better pray to God the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac polling released today is wrong. Really, really wrong.

    Pennsylvania: Obama +12
    Ohio: Obama +10
    Florida: Obama +9

    RCP's poll of polls now has Ohio > 5%, moving it out of toss-up entirely. Florida is 3.1%. Both states are currently higher than Obama's margin in 2008.
    Carter was up by 8 points in October of 1980.

    KRACH.

    Leave a comment:


  • FlagDUDE08
    replied
    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part II -- Charlotte, a National Treasure or sede vaca

    Originally posted by Rover View Post
    You're not supporting Romney because he's losing, or to put it better you don't think he'll win. For a man drawing about 45% of the vote in polls, its real hard to find a wingnut who will come out in public and say they support the guy. It reminds me of GWB. He won re-election with 51% of the vote but by 2006 you couldn't find anybody who'd admit they voted for him.
    I haven't supported Romney since he started his campaign. I don't agree with his fascist ideas. The only candidates I have supported are Herman Cain, Ron Paul, and recently Gary Johnson.

    Leave a comment:


  • Kepler
    replied
    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part II -- Charlotte, a National Treasure or sede vaca

    You know how white working class voters hate Obama? Oops, they don't. Southern white working class voters hate Obama.

    *****http://www.motherjones.com/files/images/blog_white_working_class_romney_obama.jpg******

    Leave a comment:


  • Kepler
    replied
    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part II -- Charlotte, a National Treasure or sede vaca

    The GOP better pray to God the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac polling released today is wrong. Really, really wrong.

    Pennsylvania: Obama +12
    Ohio: Obama +10
    Florida: Obama +9

    RCP's poll of polls now has Ohio > 5%, moving it out of toss-up entirely. Florida is 3.1%. Both states are currently higher than Obama's margin in 2008.
    Last edited by Kepler; 09-26-2012, 11:44 AM.

    Leave a comment:


  • Rover
    replied
    Originally posted by FlagDUDE08 View Post
    If I had a nickel for every post you made that assumed I am supporting Romney, I could pay off the national debt.
    You're not supporting Romney because he's losing, or to put it better you don't think he'll win. For a man drawing about 45% of the vote in polls, its real hard to find a wingnut who will come out in public and say they support the guy. It reminds me of GWB. He won re-election with 51% of the vote but by 2006 you couldn't find anybody who'd admit they voted for him.

    Leave a comment:


  • Kepler
    replied
    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part II -- Charlotte, a National Treasure or sede vaca

    Originally posted by FlagDUDE08 View Post
    And yet, you're so convinced the same thing could not happen to you.
    It can certainly happen, but what's bizarre on the right is they are creating an alternate reality where they assume the best possible circumstances (low turnout, late swing, selective demographic participation) for their desired outcome. The real polling methodologies assume the future will be pretty much like the past, particularly the recent past, in those circumstances.

    Here is the difference. Take a very simple political system in which in every four elections one is a Dem wave, one is a Republican wave and two are in the middle. Real polling will tend to underestimate the wave elections, and so they will tend to be slightly wrong for the two waves and pretty close for the two middling elections. The right's "unskewed" (cough, fair and balanced?) polling will tend to be wildly wrong on the Dem wave, slightly wrong on the two middling, and exactly right on the Republican wave.

    In terms of relative error:

    Actuals: D + M + M + R = Sum; Expected value of error

    Real poll: 2 + 1 + 1 + 2 = 6; 1.50
    GOP poll: 5 + 2 + 2 + 0 = 9; 2.25

    The expected value of the accuracy of the GOP polls will be terrible, but because once every four cycles they will be dead on correct, they will trumpet themselves as accurate (and probably make accusations of voter fraud the other times -- after all, "we were exactly right last time so how could we be so off this time?!"
    Last edited by Kepler; 09-26-2012, 10:31 AM.

    Leave a comment:


  • FlagDUDE08
    replied
    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part II -- Charlotte, a National Treasure or sede vaca

    Originally posted by Rover View Post
    Anything's possible Flaggy. What I will say to you is that Mittens needs to go 3 for 3 in these debates. Right now he's in the same position Kerry was in at this time in 2004. Losing. Kerry managed to get some traction after croaking the dimwitted Bush in all three debates. Not enough obviously, but Romney needs a similar game changer.
    If I had a nickel for every post you made that assumed I am supporting Romney, I could pay off the national debt.

    Leave a comment:


  • Rover
    replied
    Originally posted by FlagDUDE08 View Post
    And yet, you're so convinced the same thing could not happen to you.
    Anything's possible Flaggy. What I will say to you is that Mittens needs to go 3 for 3 in these debates. Right now he's in the same position Kerry was in at this time in 2004. Losing. Kerry managed to get some traction after croaking the dimwitted Bush in all three debates. Not enough obviously, but Romney needs a similar game changer.

    Leave a comment:


  • FlagDUDE08
    replied
    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part II -- Charlotte, a National Treasure or sede vaca

    Originally posted by Rover View Post
    Hey, its all good. Election day will settle who's right on this once and for all. I do recall back in 2006 Karl Rove claimed to have his own polling showing the GOP would only lose 12 seats in the House in Nov thus keeping the majority. It was also said he had an analysis ready to publish about how polling firms were inaccurate. Given that they lost 30 seats that night, I'm guessing that report ended up in the circular filing cabinet.
    And yet, you're so convinced the same thing could not happen to you.

    Leave a comment:


  • Rover
    replied
    Originally posted by Kepler View Post
    This goes way beyond accusation of skewing, it's rejecting a mathematically-coherent methodology in favor of wishing and fantasy. It's the statistical equivalent of Creationism: "the empirical evidence does not validate my a priori hypothesis, therefore I will substitute a lot of gibberish and my audience who is ignorant of and even frightened by the scientific method will go along with it."

    The C, D and F students have decided that because there are more of them* they can just outvote the A students on matters of reality.

    (* except at Harvard...)
    Hey, its all good. Election day will settle who's right on this once and for all. I do recall back in 2006 Karl Rove claimed to have his own polling showing the GOP would only lose 12 seats in the House in Nov thus keeping the majority. It was also said he had an analysis ready to publish about how polling firms were inaccurate. Given that they lost 30 seats that night, I'm guessing that report ended up in the circular filing cabinet.

    Leave a comment:

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