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2012 Presidential Election Part II -- Charlotte, a National Treasure or sede vacante

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  • Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part II -- Charlotte, a National Treasure or sede vaca

    Originally posted by FlagDUDE08 View Post
    And yet, you're so convinced the same thing could not happen to you.
    It can certainly happen, but what's bizarre on the right is they are creating an alternate reality where they assume the best possible circumstances (low turnout, late swing, selective demographic participation) for their desired outcome. The real polling methodologies assume the future will be pretty much like the past, particularly the recent past, in those circumstances.

    Here is the difference. Take a very simple political system in which in every four elections one is a Dem wave, one is a Republican wave and two are in the middle. Real polling will tend to underestimate the wave elections, and so they will tend to be slightly wrong for the two waves and pretty close for the two middling elections. The right's "unskewed" (cough, fair and balanced?) polling will tend to be wildly wrong on the Dem wave, slightly wrong on the two middling, and exactly right on the Republican wave.

    In terms of relative error:

    Actuals: D + M + M + R = Sum; Expected value of error

    Real poll: 2 + 1 + 1 + 2 = 6; 1.50
    GOP poll: 5 + 2 + 2 + 0 = 9; 2.25

    The expected value of the accuracy of the GOP polls will be terrible, but because once every four cycles they will be dead on correct, they will trumpet themselves as accurate (and probably make accusations of voter fraud the other times -- after all, "we were exactly right last time so how could we be so off this time?!"
    Last edited by Kepler; 09-26-2012, 10:31 AM.
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    • Originally posted by FlagDUDE08 View Post
      If I had a nickel for every post you made that assumed I am supporting Romney, I could pay off the national debt.
      You're not supporting Romney because he's losing, or to put it better you don't think he'll win. For a man drawing about 45% of the vote in polls, its real hard to find a wingnut who will come out in public and say they support the guy. It reminds me of GWB. He won re-election with 51% of the vote but by 2006 you couldn't find anybody who'd admit they voted for him.
      Legally drunk???? If its "legal", what's the ------- problem?!? - George Carlin

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      "I've never seen so much reason and bullsh*t contained in ONE MAN."

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      • Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part II -- Charlotte, a National Treasure or sede vaca

        The GOP better pray to God the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac polling released today is wrong. Really, really wrong.

        Pennsylvania: Obama +12
        Ohio: Obama +10
        Florida: Obama +9

        RCP's poll of polls now has Ohio > 5%, moving it out of toss-up entirely. Florida is 3.1%. Both states are currently higher than Obama's margin in 2008.
        Last edited by Kepler; 09-26-2012, 11:44 AM.
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        • Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part II -- Charlotte, a National Treasure or sede vaca

          You know how white working class voters hate Obama? Oops, they don't. Southern white working class voters hate Obama.

          *****http://www.motherjones.com/files/images/blog_white_working_class_romney_obama.jpg******
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          • Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part II -- Charlotte, a National Treasure or sede vaca

            Originally posted by Rover View Post
            You're not supporting Romney because he's losing, or to put it better you don't think he'll win. For a man drawing about 45% of the vote in polls, its real hard to find a wingnut who will come out in public and say they support the guy. It reminds me of GWB. He won re-election with 51% of the vote but by 2006 you couldn't find anybody who'd admit they voted for him.
            I haven't supported Romney since he started his campaign. I don't agree with his fascist ideas. The only candidates I have supported are Herman Cain, Ron Paul, and recently Gary Johnson.

            Comment


            • Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part II -- Charlotte, a National Treasure or sede vaca

              Originally posted by Kepler View Post
              The GOP better pray to God the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac polling released today is wrong. Really, really wrong.

              Pennsylvania: Obama +12
              Ohio: Obama +10
              Florida: Obama +9

              RCP's poll of polls now has Ohio > 5%, moving it out of toss-up entirely. Florida is 3.1%. Both states are currently higher than Obama's margin in 2008.
              Carter was up by 8 points in October of 1980.

              KRACH.

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              • Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part II -- Charlotte, a National Treasure or sede vaca

                Originally posted by Kepler View Post
                The GOP better pray to God the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac polling released today is wrong. Really, really wrong.

                Pennsylvania: Obama +12
                Ohio: Obama +10
                Florida: Obama +9

                RCP's poll of polls now has Ohio > 5%, moving it out of toss-up entirely. Florida is 3.1%. Both states are currently higher than Obama's margin in 2008.
                Those are percentages. They're meaningless.
                **NOTE: The misleading post above was brought to you by Reynold's Wrap and American Steeples, makers of Crosses.

                Originally Posted by dropthatpuck-Scooby's a lost cause.
                Originally Posted by First Time, Long Time-Always knew you were nothing but a troll.

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                • Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part II -- Charlotte, a National Treasure or sede vaca

                  Originally posted by Kepler View Post
                  The GOP better pray to God the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac polling released today is wrong. Really, really wrong.

                  Pennsylvania: Obama +12
                  Ohio: Obama +10
                  Florida: Obama +9

                  RCP's poll of polls now has Ohio > 5%, moving it out of toss-up entirely. Florida is 3.1%. Both states are currently higher than Obama's margin in 2008.
                  Did Dan Rather run the poll?
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                  • Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part II -- Charlotte, a National Treasure or sede vaca

                    Originally posted by walrus View Post
                    Did Dan Rather run the poll?
                    Walrus, what's the frequency?
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                    • Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part II -- Charlotte, a National Treasure or sede vaca

                      Originally posted by Kepler View Post
                      Walrus, what's the frequency?
                      Kenneth to my friends
                      I swear there ain't no heaven but I pray there ain't no hell.

                      Maine Hockey Love it or Leave it

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                      • Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part II -- Charlotte, a National Treasure or sede vaca

                        Originally posted by walrus View Post
                        Kenneth to my friends
                        Fake but accurate
                        2011 Poser of the Year & Pulitzer Prize winning machine gunner.

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                        • Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part II -- Charlotte, a National Treasure or sede vaca



                          The Daily Show gets why Romney is an idiot and why Obama is the luckiest guy around. If Obama was running against a real candidate he would be in trouble. Problem is Romney is a moron and the people in charge of his campaign couldnt run a lemonade stand.

                          edit: Flag,

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                          Last edited by Handyman; 09-26-2012, 04:37 PM.
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                          • Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part II -- Charlotte, a National Treasure or sede vaca

                            Originally posted by FlagDUDE08 View Post
                            Herman Cain, Ron Paul, and recently Gary Johnson.
                            Hermain Cain? Seriously? He's essentially Sarah Palin all over again. Ron Paul and Gary Johnson are at least true libertarian wing Republicans.

                            Hermain Cain is just a walking set of slogans.
                            Last edited by unofan; 09-26-2012, 05:20 PM.

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                            • Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part II -- Charlotte, a National Treasure or sede vaca

                              They just should not let him speak.
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                              • Originally posted by Kepler View Post
                                They nominated an idiot. Again.
                                **NOTE: The misleading post above was brought to you by Reynold's Wrap and American Steeples, makers of Crosses.

                                Originally Posted by dropthatpuck-Scooby's a lost cause.
                                Originally Posted by First Time, Long Time-Always knew you were nothing but a troll.

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