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Obama XXIV: Forward ... pause ... rewind ... play

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  • Re: Obama XXIV: Forward ... pause ... rewind ... play

    I would argue (but I won't at this point) that we are as far from a world war as we've been since we were capable.

    These days the people run the show. They can still be sold a lot, but not another WW or anything close. Power has moved to the corporate world...and they may even tolerate hiccups in the flow of oil, but they will not tolerate stopping the flow of money.
    Go Gophers!

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    • Re: Obama XXIV: Forward ... pause ... rewind ... play

      Originally posted by 5mn_Major View Post
      I would argue (but I won't at this point) that we are as far from a world war as we've been since we were capable.

      These days the people run the show. They can still be sold a lot, but not another WW or anything close. Power has moved to the corporate world...and they may even tolerate hiccups in the flow of oil, but they will not tolerate stopping the flow of money.
      I would partially agree-I don't think we are in any way close to having the number of countries involved in a war as we had with WWII. But as far as the number of casualties and destruction-I just do not know-there are a lot of very potent weapons floating around out there in the hands of some very emotional people.
      Take the shortest distance to the puck and arrive in ill humor

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      • Re: Obama XXIV: Forward ... pause ... rewind ... play

        Originally posted by DrDemento View Post
        I would partially agree-I don't think we are in any way close to having the number of countries involved in a war as we had with WWII. But as far as the number of casualties and destruction-I just do not know-there are a lot of very potent weapons floating around out there in the hands of some very emotional people.
        Alright. I see the point there. Conventional mass war no...nuclear 'incident' with the potential for a minor war of retribution more likely due to proliferation yes. IMO the implications for our military are clear.

        With the absence of mass scale war, I see it just being a peaceful chess game with the Chinese and Russia for the forseeable future. China will continue to push against its neighbors, while they push back. All the while all of Asia gets far too rich to ever contemplate a war of any kind. And Russia could well shift to be positive at any point with a change to a favorable US/favorable Russia president combination. We have half of that now...which is exhibit A why Putin was a bad deal for all concerned.
        Go Gophers!

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        • Re: Obama XXIV: Forward ... pause ... rewind ... play

          Originally posted by 5mn_Major View Post
          Alright. I see the point there. Conventional mass war no...nuclear 'incident' with the potential for a minor war of retribution more likely due to proliferation yes. IMO the implications for our military are clear.

          With the absence of mass scale war, I see it just being a peaceful chess game with the Chinese and Russia for the forseeable future. China will continue to push against its neighbors, while they push back. All the while all of Asia gets far too rich to ever contemplate a war of any kind. And Russia could well shift to be positive at any point with a change to a favorable US/favorable Russia president combination. We have half of that now...which is exhibit A why Putin was a bad deal for all concerned.
          Obviously this is all conjecture and your points are valid and well taken. But I never rule out the chance of some odd ball psycho nut job attaining a position of control and power who suddenly decides to react in a totally irrational way. Just imagine the definition of a fanatic (religious or otherwise) in charge of a bunch of nuclear weapons or an armed forces of a couple million followers. Then also imagine some perceived need for rapidly decreasing resources (oil? water? food? whatever?). Or some religious crusade. I wish I could feel as confident as you do-that people will behave in an educated, humane and rational way. I am by no means taking the opposite point of view-I am just not so sure that we are any safer from some world wide calamity now than we have been in the past. This may all be just a lull like the weather we have had between ice ages.
          Take the shortest distance to the puck and arrive in ill humor

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          • Re: Obama XXIV: Forward ... pause ... rewind ... play

            Originally posted by DrDemento View Post
            Obviously this is all conjecture and your points are valid and well taken. But I never rule out the chance of some odd ball psycho nut job attaining a position of control and power who suddenly decides to react in a totally irrational way. Just imagine the definition of a fanatic (religious or otherwise) in charge of a bunch of nuclear weapons or an armed forces of a couple million followers. Then also imagine some perceived need for rapidly decreasing resources (oil? water? food? whatever?). Or some religious crusade. I wish I could feel as confident as you do-that people will behave in an educated, humane and rational way. I am by no means taking the opposite point of view-I am just not so sure that we are any safer from some world wide calamity now than we have been in the past. This may all be just a lull like the weather we have had between ice ages.
            No we can't know.

            I am of the opinion that if powerful nutball leaders happen in nutball countries, a nuke might get thrown (which of course would be horrible). But the armed force of a million followers will not happen. Again China doesn't do it, too rich, too happy. Russia doesn't do it, nobody it could beat in a war and the people would never support it.

            Many middle eastern countries have too few people and don't have multiple millions in their army...and those that do are surrounded by other Muslim countries with their own fanatics. They don't trust other middle eastern countries...and often they don't like those in their same country. And in the end were they amazingly able to get a force together...who do they invade? India? With a billion people, no. Russia? Ask the Germans/French about invading Russia. Africa? I'm not sure why they would invade Kenya. Europe? Ten times the economy and 100x the technology, no.

            The rich are too rich for conventional war. The poor are incapable of it (except for terror and a throwing a nuke). That's the way I see it going forward.
            Go Gophers!

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            • Re: Obama XXIV: Forward ... pause ... rewind ... play

              Originally posted by 5mn_Major View Post
              The rich are too rich for conventional war.
              I've heard this somewhere before. Prior to WW1 there was wide agreement that war was no longer a viable tool of state because the interruption of trade would impoverish everyone including the attacker.

              We only have to look at the Neocons to see how a strong enough ideology can blind people to the realities of war. People who either think history is on their side or they are in an existential struggle or that God is involved have made and will continue to make reckless and stupid decisions. Any country with the means only needs a relatively short emergency in domestic politics to bring those kind of murderers to power.
              Last edited by Kepler; 09-30-2012, 01:22 PM.
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              • Re: Obama XXIV: Forward ... pause ... rewind ... play

                Originally posted by Kepler View Post
                I've heard this somewhere before. Prior to WW1 there was wide agreement that war was no longer a viable tool of state because the interruption of trade would impoverish everyone including the attacker.

                We only have to look at the Neocons to see how a strong enough ideology can blind people to the realities of war. People who either think history is one their side or they are in an existential struggle or that God is involved have and will continue to make reckless and stupid decisions. Any country with the means only needs a relatively short emergency in domestic politics to bring those kind of murderers to power.
                Exactly what I was alluding to-and said far more eloquently. Not everyone who should be on Prozac is taking it. And certainly not everyone who needs electroshock therapy has received it. There are some very odd thinking people out there-and some can be absolutely mesmerizing to uneducated or unknowing masses of people. And it may not be all that difficult to achieve a position of absolute power over some regime. Historically there have been lots of 'Wars to end all Wars'. But humans are creative people devising new and better ways to destroy each other. In the 1930's-1940's it took a fairly large military in close approximation to inflict a lot of damage. With modern weaponry (and computer technology and drones etc) a few button pushers could cause considerable carnage by remote control from a great distance away from heavily populated targets. I don't expect any of this to happen soon (I still have a few vacations planned), but I just cannot rule out the possibility at any time occurring almost any place in the world.
                Take the shortest distance to the puck and arrive in ill humor

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                • Re: Obama XXIV: Forward ... pause ... rewind ... play

                  2 more years and we hit the 100 year anniversary of WW-I. Civil War tactics vs. modern weaponry = senseless slaughter. Plus another redraw of the European Continent.

                  Now I ask you a question (sort of off topic) - you look @ a map of Asia from 1935 and a map of Asia in 2005 and know nothing of history. All you know is that one major war and two brush wars were fought between the White Man and the Occidental during that period. Who won?
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                  • Re: Obama XXIV: Forward ... pause ... rewind ... play

                    Originally posted by joecct View Post
                    2 more years and we hit the 100 year anniversary of WW-I. Civil War tactics vs. modern weaponry = senseless slaughter. Plus another redraw of the European Continent.

                    Now I ask you a question (sort of off topic) - you look @ a map of Asia from 1935 and a map of Asia in 2005 and know nothing of history. All you know is that one major war and two brush wars were fought between the White Man and the Occidental during that period. Who won?
                    The British lost, so everyone won.

                    *****http://www.probertencyclopaedia.com/photolib/maps/Map%20of%20Asia%201935.jpg******
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                    • Re: Obama XXIV: Forward ... pause ... rewind ... play

                      Originally posted by Kepler View Post
                      I've heard this somewhere before. Prior to WW1 there was wide agreement that war was no longer a viable tool of state because the interruption of trade would impoverish everyone including the attacker.

                      We only have to look at the Neocons to see how a strong enough ideology can blind people to the realities of war. People who either think history is on their side or they are in an existential struggle or that God is involved have made and will continue to make reckless and stupid decisions. Any country with the means only needs a relatively short emergency in domestic politics to bring those kind of murderers to power.
                      Why don't you try numbering these repetitive, boring, b.s. posts? It would save us all a lot of time. You trick or treating dressed as a Neocon this year?
                      2011 Poser of the Year & Pulitzer Prize winning machine gunner.

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                      • Re: Obama XXIV: Forward ... pause ... rewind ... play

                        Originally posted by joecct View Post
                        WW-I. Civil War tactics vs. modern weaponry = senseless slaughter.
                        Which is ironic, because the Civil War was Revolutionary War tactics vs. modern (for the time) weaponry = senseless slaughter.
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                        • Re: Obama XXIV: Forward ... pause ... rewind ... play

                          Originally posted by Craig P. View Post
                          Which is ironic, because the Civil War was Revolutionary War tactics vs. modern (for the time) weaponry = senseless slaughter.
                          Pretty much every war has started out with the same tactics as the prior one ended with, while in the interim the tech has improved.

                          Battleships were useless in WW2. Carriers will probably all be sunk in the first ten minutes of the next war. So it goes.
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                          • Re: Obama XXIV: Forward ... pause ... rewind ... play

                            Originally posted by Kepler View Post
                            Pretty much every war has started out with the same tactics as the prior one ended with, while in the interim the tech has improved.

                            Battleships were useless in WW2. Carriers will probably all be sunk in the first ten minutes of the next war. So it goes.
                            Adm. Doenitz would be proud.
                            CCT '77 & '78
                            4 kids
                            5 grandsons (BCA 7/09, CJA 5/14, JDL 8/14, JFL 6/16, PJL 7/18)
                            1 granddaughter (EML 4/18)

                            ”Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both.”
                            - Benjamin Franklin

                            Banned from the St. Lawrence University Facebook page - March 2016 (But I got better).

                            I want to live forever. So far, so good.

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                            • Re: Obama XXIV: Forward ... pause ... rewind ... play

                              Originally posted by Kepler View Post
                              Pretty much every war has started out with the same tactics as the prior one ended with, while in the interim the tech has improved.

                              Battleships were useless in WW2. Carriers will probably all be sunk in the first ten minutes of the next war. So it goes.
                              And a military genius on top of everything else. I'm impressed. And since we're the only ones with a fleet of carriers, what you mean to say is our carriers will "probably all be sunk in the first ten minutes of the next war." Does that include the ones that are always being refitted here at home? Who's going to sink them all? And how are they going to do it? And if you've got it figured out, what makes you think the Navy is unaware of the dangers? Also, apparantly, not able or willing to do anything about it?

                              Watching a couple of reruns of "The World at War" doesn't make you an expert on anything, as your last post clearly demonstrates.

                              And that meme about each war starting with the tactics from the previous war is an ignorant falsehood. The kind of thing libstains say to impress their friends at McGovern rallies. It was proven wrong in Gulf War I when we used weapons and tactics the world had never seen before to humble, humiliate and destroy "the third largest army in the world." As one wag said, after Gulf War I, Hussein had the second largest army in Iraq. The "hangar queen" Apaches and Warthogs did a job on the Basra highway. So one sided that Bush I called off the dogs. And didn't the Wehrmacht have a couple of new wrinkles for the French?
                              Last edited by Old Pio; 09-30-2012, 04:35 PM.
                              2011 Poser of the Year & Pulitzer Prize winning machine gunner.

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                              • Re: Obama XXIV: Forward ... pause ... rewind ... play

                                I think our carriers will last far longer than Kepler is predicting. The anti-missile systems on these ships now are just incredible. Not to mention that would require getting through the escort ships and aircraft as well.
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