Obama XXIV: Forward ... pause ... rewind ... play

[Kepler]

Re: Obama XXIV: Forward ... pause ... rewind ... play

But Obama has already been given 3+ years and it has clearly been shown that we are going in the wrong direction.

I understood the rest of your post but not this one sentence. When Obama took over, and for the first quarter afterwards, we were in free-fall. I am not arguing that it was Obama alone that pulled us out of that dive -- much of the credit actually resides with Bush and the Congressmen who passed TARP. However, the situation has dramatically improved: we avoided a second Great Depression.

We can argue forever about whether the recovery is taking too long and going too slowly, but it is a recovery. I think we may already be starting to forget just how dire things were looking in 2008.

*****http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/images/djia2000s.png******

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: Obama XXIV: Forward ... pause ... rewind ... play

I understood the rest of your post but not this one sentence. When Obama took over, and for the first quarter afterwards, we were in free-fall. I am not arguing that it was Obama alone that pulled us out of that dive -- much of the credit actually resides with Bush and the Congressmen who passed TARP. However, the situation has dramatically improved: we avoided a second Great Depression.

We can argue forever about whether the recovery is taking too long and going too slowly, but it is a recovery. I think we may already be starting to forget just how dire things were looking in 2008.

We didn't avoid a second great depression; we just kicked the can down the road. Eventually, printing money to bail us out won't work, and we will enter a great depression again.

[5mn_Major]

Re: Obama XXIV: Forward ... pause ... rewind ... play

You're going to find that for most people, "fairly good" business health means businesses should be hiring more people. Things have stalled on the hiring front, so I'm going to have to disagree on your "fairly good" business health report. The state of the markets is not completely indicative of overall business health, since a lot of stock and bond trading is just speculation about how a company or industry might do in the next quarter or fiscal year.

The primary problem with the economy is not that businesses themselves are in such dire straights but a restructuring of the economy. Due to comparative advantage, the US is losing many lower and medium level jobs overseas. Thats a big problem...but its structural. Meanwhile, it continues to do well in entreprenuerial content, technology and innovation. These fields pay more but hire fewer workers. Its just one company, but indicative of whats going on...Apple is now the most valuable company that has ever existed. Long story short, our economy just doesn't take as many people to run on as it once did.

People who poo poo the markets as being innacurate really don't understand the markets. The S&P is not some number that people make up based on how they feel on a given day. Except for times of extreme terror like 09, stock market valuations are based on the roll up of many PE ratios and other hard indicators. Each company is evaluated on an individual basis...which includes some of the most savvy analysts in any field anywhere. And right now, we're just 10% from the market (s&p) all time high...which occurred during the height of the bubble. So while the general economy as shown by unemployment remains a big problem...the general economy shown by business health is actually pretty decent.

[Bob Gray]

Re: Obama XXIV: Forward ... pause ... rewind ... play

We didn't avoid a second great depression; we just kicked the can down the road. Eventually, printing money to bail us out won't work, and we will enter a great depression again.

And the longer the can gets kicked down the road, the worse it will be. It'll make the last few years seem like a game of Candyland.

[joecct]

Re: Obama XXIV: Forward ... pause ... rewind ... play

If it was good enough for the Department of (selective) Justice, why is it wrong for job creators? http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/new...exican-cartels

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: Obama XXIV: Forward ... pause ... rewind ... play

If it was good enough for the Department of (selective) Justice, why is it wrong for job creators? http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/new...exican-cartels

It's the Golden Rule. He who has the gold makes the rules.

[Tiggsy]

Re: Obama XXIV: Forward ... pause ... rewind ... play

We can argue forever about whether the recovery is taking too long and going too slowly, but it is a recovery. I think we may already be starting to forget just how dire things were looking in 2008.

So the stock market average is how you define a recovery? Why not unemployment or government debt levels or household income? Because it doesn't support your assertion?

[Bob Gray]

Re: Obama XXIV: Forward ... pause ... rewind ... play

So the stock market average is how you define a recovery? Why not unemployment or government debt levels or household income? Because it doesn't support your assertion?

I'd argue that to the extent there are indicators saying there is recovery, they are largely if not wholy false in that they are as a result of, among other things, enormous and unsustainable deficit spending that is juicing the economy far beyond what it's actual performance would be if the government were on a sustainable fiscal trajectory.

[Handyman]

Re: Obama XXIV: Forward ... pause ... rewind ... play

Yeah it is a fallacy to say we avoided another depression...that is like saying you avoided bankruptcy because you got a new credit card to pay your bills with. Sure you are ok for now but the bill still comes due at some point. This whole thing is a house of cards...

At some point we need to let things come to a head, the country has seen plenty of massive scares and depressions in the last 200 years and it always recovered. Unless we find a way to turn things around fast we might as well just take our medicine.

[Bob Gray]

Re: Obama XXIV: Forward ... pause ... rewind ... play

Yeah it is a fallacy to say we avoided another depression...that is like saying you avoided bankruptcy because you got a new credit card to pay your bills with. Sure you are ok for now but the bill still comes due at some point. This whole thing is a house of cards...

At some point we need to let things come to a head, the country has seen plenty of massive scares and depressions in the last 200 years and it always recovered. Unless we find a way to turn things around fast we might as well just take our medicine.

Handy and I agree. The Apocalypse is imminent!

[manurespreader]

Re: Obama XXIV: Forward ... pause ... rewind ... play

Really agree with this statement. Both employment (or their lack thereof) and business health are inter related. As of this moment, both really stink. I am not a big Obama fan for certain. But then again i am not enamored by just about any political representative right now. I am just not sure any of them will be able to do what needs to be done to right the ship of the American economy. I certainly am not smart enough to know all that needs to be done but i do think I am intelligent enough to realize that most of these guys are just not going to do it. But Obama has already been given 3+ years and it has clearly been shown that we are going in the wrong direction.
As far as the stock market-i am doing pretty well right now after a few years of scary desperation. But i take a very active role in my investments and watch from 9:30 AM until 4PM every day making frequent adjustments. Any success that i am having on Wall street is my own doing and i give zero credit to Obama or any other politician. Much of the market, at least in the short term, is just educated gambling (unless you are privy to some sort of inside information) and i consider it just a few steps higher and controllable than driving down to Atlantic City and sitting by the roulette wheel and betting the outside of the board. As for longer term investing-it really is the only game in town since leaving any money in the bank and getting 0.35% interest on a CD is just about the same as putting it under the mattress. Just my 2¢

We didn't avoid a second great depression; we just kicked the can down the road. Eventually, printing money to bail us out won't work, and we will enter a great depression again.

though I generally agree, we as a people always seem to credit the president or discredit the president based on the economy. In reality the president has a lot less to do with it than we would like to think. For instance that would be like giving clinton credit for the balanced budget of the time, which he doesn't deserve.

And the longer the can gets kicked down the road, the worse it will be. It'll make the last few years seem like a game of Candyland.

I totally disagree, except that if nothing were done down the road when inflation rears it's ugly head, then yeah, but that is not a realistic approach as the fed will do something. So I would agree, absent the fed, but since the fed is there and run by reasonably able people, I think you're all wet.Though sure we are going to have to face the deficit sooner rather than later, but that's a different subject really.

I'd argue that to the extent there are indicators saying there is recovery, they are largely if not wholy false in that they are as a result of, among other things, enormous and unsustainable deficit spending that is juicing the economy far beyond what it's actual performance would be if the government were on a sustainable fiscal trajectory.

No they are not false. Deficit spending does have some effect but the overall health of the economy is much bigger than the deficit. And that doesn't explain how when there was no deficit we were doing better, not worse, which would be the case under your assumptions.It's very easy though to grab on to certain shall we call them, popular phrases being put out by one special interest group or another, and support them even if they are gross simplifications and not really true.

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: Obama XXIV: Forward ... pause ... rewind ... play

though I generally agree, we as a people always seem to credit the president or discredit the president based on the economy. In reality the president has a lot less to do with it than we would like to think. For instance that would be like giving clinton credit for the balanced budget of the time, which he doesn't deserve.

I totally disagree, except that if nothing were done down the road when inflation rears it's ugly head, then yeah, but that is not a realistic approach as the fed will do something. So I would agree, absent the fed, but since the fed is there and run by reasonably able people, I think you're all wet.Though sure we are going to have to face the deficit sooner rather than later, but that's a different subject really.

No they are not false. Deficit spending does have some effect but the overall health of the economy is much bigger than the deficit. And that doesn't explain how when there was no deficit we were doing better, not worse, which would be the case under your assumptions.It's very easy though to grab on to certain shall we call them, popular phrases being put out by one special interest group or another, and support them even if they are gross simplifications and not really true.

One of the biggest flaws of human beings is the need for a central point. People credit/discredit the President because, as a leader, he is the "fall guy", and like Truman said, is where the buck stops. Humans in general, myself included, constantly create a single point of failure and have absolutely no sense of redundancy, other than to laugh at it and its supposed inefficiency. Why do central banks never work? It's a single point of failure. They're way too easy to crash, and too inefficient for the amount of processing that takes place.

[Kepler]

Re: Obama XXIV: Forward ... pause ... rewind ... play

Yeah it is a fallacy to say we avoided another depression...that is like saying you avoided bankruptcy because you got a new credit card to pay your bills with. Sure you are ok for now but the bill still comes due at some point. This whole thing is a house of cards...

At some point we need to let things come to a head, the country has seen plenty of massive scares and depressions in the last 200 years and it always recovered. Unless we find a way to turn things around fast we might as well just take our medicine.

Or we could pay our bills. But that would be "theft."

It isn't tax and spend that caused the debt. It's borrow and spend.

[Bob Gray]

Re: Obama XXIV: Forward ... pause ... rewind ... play

Or we could pay our bills. But that would be "theft."

It isn't tax and spend that caused the debt. It's borrow and spend.

You're rearranging the Titanic's chairs.

[Kepler]

Re: Obama XXIV: Forward ... pause ... rewind ... play

You're rearranging the Titanic's chairs.

I'm trying to change course before impact.

Seriously, though. There are two conceivable workable strategies (given the watering down that naturally occurs during political debate):

Crazy Liberal: keep all our programs and tax at 50%.

Crazy Conservative: cut all our current programs, abolish the income tax, and return to funding a small militia via excise taxes.

The one thing we know will absolutely not work:

Saint Ronny - Demon Dubya: keep all our programs to not make people mad, add more to appease special interests, and cut taxes as a kickback for campaign bribes from wealthy invest- er, I mean "patriots."