Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

[unofan]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

Ryan has put Wisconsin in play. But, Iowa, seriously, for an incumbent?

Iowa's all about turnout. We don't have a bell curve population when it comes to politics, we have two largely distinct populations coexisting within the borders. There's the progressives, gays, hippies, and other liberals who have kept Iowa ahead of the curve on almost all major civil rights issues in the nation's history (and bring things like the Book of Mormon to Des Moines' performing arts center during its first national tour). Then there's the bible-thumpers, rural farmers, hunters, and rednecks that elect Steve King and the tea partiers.

The three state supreme court justices lost 2 years ago because Vander Plaats and his homophobic organization drove the turnout in the midterms. Presidential years are alwa

I think the Dems have a slight registration edge, but a very significant chunk register as non-affiliated/indepenents (I'm thinking 30-40%).

[geezer]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

Now having a choice between plans is a better discussion for The Mittster? Since when exactly was this considered to be a good idea?

You're missing the point a little bit. While It's obviously worse for the (fleeting) Romney candidacy, it's better for the electorate to have said discussion.

[pirate]

Except nearly the first words out of Romney's mouth were to the effect of, Yes he has a budget proposal but we arent running on it, I have my own budget proposal and that is what we are running on.

He is the prez nominee, it has to be His plan. He can't come out and say he is using somebody else's plan, especially his VP.

(see West Wing: season 1)

[pirate]

Another thing I find funny is how for the last year all we've been hearing is how Romney will make this election about Obama. Its going to a referendum on the incumbent and if so Obama can't win, blah blah blah....

So, this last weekend you could feel a shift on the hot air coming out of pundits mouths, so much so it could almost knock you over. Now having a choice between plans is a better discussion for The Mittster? Since when exactly was this considered to be a good idea?

RE: Iowa, Wisconsin, etc. I find it hard to believe Mittens is winning Iowa because he already got croaked there by Sanitarium (although after the final whistle blew) despite spending some serious bucks. But, if we are to grant Iowa swing state status we must also throw in Arizona and Missouri, two states I don't see Obama winning but for which I can find a couple of polls showing a close race. Much like the previous analysis of Pennsylvania if Romney is winning Iowa that means he's already won in a lot of other states on the East beforehand (NH, VA, NC, FL).

How often do you talk to people who don't agree with you? There is a huge "it is all about Obama" sentiment from republicans I know

[LynahFan]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

Far from just the President this is now a vote for both houses of Congress too, as I can't see people choosing divided govt again when the fault lines are crystal clear.

Do you really think that people walk into the voting booth going, "Well, I was going to vote for the R incumbent in my district, because I like him and he's really brought home the pork, but gosh, that might cause the divided government to continue, so for the good of the country I'm going to vote for the D instead"?

I don't see that at all - the national race (President) affects turnout, but the Congressional choices that actual voters make are affected by party first, local politics second (first for independents), then candidate likability third (perhaps 2nd?), and national politics in a very distant fourth.

[huskyfan]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

thus far it's close, hopefully they are done with the mud flinging and are ready to move on to issues

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

thus far it's close, hopefully they are done with the mud flinging and are ready to move on to issues

Not as long as the number of swing voters is so low. The reports I saw have the independents at numbers usually seen in October. So, both campaigns are already in "get out the vote" mode, which means red meat for the base. That means no issues and throwing grandma over the cliff advertising. I also bet it's why Paul Ryan was selected. He shores up a base that Romney never had a shot at.

[Rover]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

Do you really think that people walk into the voting booth going, "Well, I was going to vote for the R incumbent in my district, because I like him and he's really brought home the pork, but gosh, that might cause the divided government to continue, so for the good of the country I'm going to vote for the D instead"?

I don't see that at all - the national race (President) affects turnout, but the Congressional choices that actual voters make are affected by party first, local politics second (first for independents), then candidate likability third (perhaps 2nd?), and national politics in a very distant fourth.

Lynah that was great 10 years ago. The problem now in the GOP is "bringing home the pork" = electoral doom via a primary on the right. See Lugar, Richard for an example of that. We're in a strange era right now where any Republican Congressman can no longer campaign on federal largesse except for possibly military spending. Bottom line is, GOP congressional candidates and incumbents are gong to own the Ryan budget this election season. By and large they all voted for it. Twice I believe. Will it sell? Maybe. However much like supporting the Iraq war there's no gray area on this one. Either you want to divert Medicare payments to pay for tax cuts for the rich or you don't. Its not too much more complicated than that.

[FreshFish]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

Either you want to divert Medicare payments to pay for tax cuts for the rich or you don't. Its not too much more complicated than that.

Wow, you are ignoring what the candidates' platforms are too? Just make up your own stuff and pretend?

Neither Romney nor Ryan have proposed any tax cuts for anyone. They merely have said that they want to adjust the income tax structure so that there are fewer deductions....generally the rich take more advantage of deductions than anyone else. To keep the plan revenue neutral there will be a trade-off.

and how does saying "we will take what is already being spent on Medicare and have it spent more effectively" somehow become a reduction in Medicare?

Oh, right, you are assuming facts not in evidence. I guess Harry Reid's been sending you super-top-secret e-mails from a reliable source whom you cannot divulge?

[LynahFan]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

Lynah that was great 10 years ago. The problem now in the GOP is "bringing home the pork" = electoral doom via a primary on the right. See Lugar, Richard for an example of that. We're in a strange era right now where any Republican Congressman can no longer campaign on federal largesse except for possibly military spending. Bottom line is, GOP congressional candidates and incumbents are gong to own the Ryan budget this election season. By and large they all voted for it. Twice I believe. Will it sell? Maybe. However much like supporting the Iraq war there's no gray area on this one. Either you want to divert Medicare payments to pay for tax cuts for the rich or you don't. Its not too much more complicated than that.

I think you're pretty naive if you think that, in this economy, a Congressman can't sell the # of jobs he's helped create in his district.

It's almost as if you think Republican voters are serious about deficit reduction - how cute!

[Rover]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

Wow, you are ignoring what the candidates' platforms are too? Just make up your own stuff and pretend?

Neither Romney nor Ryan have proposed any tax cuts for anyone. They merely have said that they want to adjust the income tax structure so that there are fewer deductions....generally the rich take more advantage of deductions than anyone else. To keep the plan revenue neutral there will be a trade-off.

and how does saying "we will take what is already being spent on Medicare and have it spent more effectively" somehow become a reduction in Medicare?

Oh, right, you are assuming facts not in evidence. I guess Harry Reid's been sending you super-top-secret e-mails from a reliable source whom you cannot divulge?

Lots of stupid in your post, but Ryan's budget drops the top tax rate from 35 to 25%. That's a tax cut for the rich. You must be one of the people who somehow thinks dropping Paris Hilton's tax rate somehow benefits you.

Now to pay for these tax cuts, there's a "screw everybody under 55" - not so coincidentally the people who aren't voting Republican, by giving them a block grant to get insurance which stays the same even though health care goes up every year. Hence, less money to afford care than the people born in the 1940's and 1950's, even though that generation is the one consuming most of the health care expenditures in this country.

See Fishy, unlike yourself I'm all about shared responsibility. The only, and I mean only, people who get a free ride from solving the country's fiscal situation is the WWII generation. These people can't be any younger than 80 right now (even if you were too young to fight the war you may have contributed hence my leniency on the cut off date). Lets be even more generous and exempt people born in the mid 30's as they would have had to survive the Great Depression also. These Americans have done enough.

However, people like you want to hold The Whinest Generation the same regard as The Greatest Generation by also giving them a free pass that they didn't earn, merely because they tend to vote Republican I guess. Sorry, no dice. Its not a good idea to play generational warfare when the generation getting the goodies is no longer in the majority. I'm guessing come election day these people are going to realize the hard way they can no longer steal everything that's not nailed down in this country.

[BCeagle]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

I don't see how any budget cut can happen without cutting from defense. There is a lot of wasteful spending in that area and defense spending is killing our budget when some of these funds can be used elsewhere to develop new industries and create jobs. We need to get away from oil dependence and we are hostage to it and our economy will be destroyed when oil prices hit the roof again when we realize supply is limited and other countries like China and India are using up more of it too. Why are oil companies still getting huge tax breaks when they're making record profits? Some economists predict another bubble in 2013 and I'm afraid that is very possible with the way we print money and countries stocking up on gold with a prediction towards currency wars devaluing our dollar badly.

In certain quarters you can still get war whoops for it. It's also one of the few remaining places where Catholic activists and Evangelical activists agree, so the RNC trots it out to prime the donations.

The list of positions doesn't exactly make him a maverick:

Abortion is woman's right - strongly opposes: ORTHODOX REPUBLICAN
Require hiring more women & minorities - opposes: ORTHODOX REPUBLICAN
Same-sex domestic partnership benefits - opposes: ORTHODOX REPUBLICAN
Teacher-led prayer in public schools - strongly favors: ORTHODOX REPUBLICAN
Absolute right to gun ownership - strongly favors: ORTHODOX REPUBLICAN
More federal funding for health coverage - strongly opposes: ORTHODOX REPUBLICAN
Privatize Social Security - strongly supports: ORTHODOX REPUBLICAN
Replace coal & oil with alternatives - strongly opposes: ORTHODOX REPUBLICAN
Drug use is immoral: enforce laws against it - favors: ORTHODOX REPUBLICAN
Allow churches to provide welfare services - strongly favors: ORTHODOX REPUBLICAN
Make taxes more progressive - strongly opposes: ORTHODOX REPUBLICAN
Illegal immigrants earn citizenship - favors: HERESY
Support & expand free trade - strongly favors: ORTHODOX REPUBLICAN
Expand the armed forces - favors: ORTHODOX REPUBLICAN
Stricter limits on political campaign funds - favors: HERESY
The Patriot Act harms civil liberties - strongly opposes: ORTHODOX REPUBLICAN
US out of Iraq & Afghanistan - strongly opposes: ORTHODOX REPUBLICAN

15/17 = 88% ORTHODOX

Hardly a guy who thinks for himself.

[Old Pio]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

I don't see how any budget cut can happen without cutting from defense. There is a lot of wasteful spending in that area and defense spending is killing our budget when some of these funds can be used elsewhere to develop new industries and create jobs. We need to get away from oil dependence and we are hostage to it and our economy will be destroyed when oil prices hit the roof again when we realize supply is limited and other countries like China and India are using up more of it too. Why are oil companies still getting huge tax breaks when they're making record profits? Some economists predict another bubble in 2013 and I'm afraid that is very possible with the way we print money and countries stocking up on gold with a prediction towards currency wars devaluing our dollar badly.

We are on the cusp of total energey independence. So that we won't be "hostage" to oil prices anymore. All we need is a President of the United States who will move forward with the Keystone Pipeline (and other projects) and permit drilling off shore and in Anwar. Instead, we have a President who takes credit for increased domestic production, even though that drilling was approved by his despised predecessor.

Are you prepared to embrace nuclear? If not, then IMO you're not serious about this problem. Wind, solar geo-thermal and other technologies are pie in the sky nostrums, which show no promise of being reliable, cost effective long term solutions whose benefits outweigh their shortcomings. Look at the low production of those ugly, polluting wind farms. And the enormous number of birds they kill.

[Kepler]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

I think you're pretty naive if you think that, in this economy, a Congressman can't sell the # of jobs he's helped create in his district.

Remember: it's only "waste" when it helps your constituency. When it helps my constituency, it's a vital national interest.

Back to Ryan, apparently he's been riding the AIPAC/AEI/Security State gravy train too. Surprising if you take him at his word on deficit control and small government. I guess we shouldn't surprised by any politician's hypocrisy.

[Old Pio]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

Meanwhile, Debbie Wasserman Test puts her titanic intellect on display on CNN. She lies, prevaricates, dissembles and manipulates. Maybe it'll work. On the other hand, maybe there aren't enough low information voters (even in her home state of Florida) to buy this garbage.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=r5NJF5Fcvmg