2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

[hockeyplayer1015]

Re: 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

i heard a media report tell me that the mississippi river had a storm surge up river of 9ft into NOLA early in the storm... but they were already 7ft under normal because of the drought. so it was only 2ft over normal - not even close to any flood issue.

Yep, this was a much better scenario than Katrina since the entire Mississippi River is so low, bordering on record low levels. Yes, there was still flooding in several places, but most of that was simply due to a slow moving hurricane dumping rainfall on low laying areas that don't drain very well. Placquemine's levees were known to be in trouble before the storm made landfall, as they were trying to strengthen them up until landfall, unfortunately it didn't work.

[mookie1995]

Re: 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

And now with Isaac hitting NOLA, we've missed Hurricane Kirk and TS Leslie... Unless we're arguing about something, this thread is forgotten. SLACKERS!!!

fish storm for now

[Chickens@NU]

Re: 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

And now with Isaac hitting NOLA, we've missed Hurricane Kirk and TS Leslie... Unless we're arguing about something, this thread is forgotten. SLACKERS!!!

[mookie1995]

Re: 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

No problem, it's pretty neat/fun to use my knowledge of the waterways affected by this to help you guys understand things a little better than what the media reports would say.

i heard a media report tell me that the mississippi river had a storm surge up river of 9ft into NOLA early in the storm... but they were already 7ft under normal because of the drought. so it was only 2ft over normal - not even close to any flood issue.

[Patman]

Re: 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

However you all want to justify it in your heads, you are all talking the lives of fellow Americans. Specifically ones in New Orlenas (which a recent WC picture still shows as quite over water).

Shocking how callous some of you are. I hope you never excpet any sympathy for issues for yourselves- quite the opposite should happen based on your attitudes toward other people.

BTW, the cost of the Northridge quake was $15B that you got to help pay for.

Not sure how much damage tornados cost.

And it would be interesting to see the number of repeat customers from Issac, which I suspect is few.

Tell you what, if your town gets washed out every 20 years do you think that's something we need to keep resurrecting?

[Patman]

Re: 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

Oh, I don't know, maybe because its a coastal city that is below sea-level.

The trouble with New Orleans is that if it were a direct hit at Cat 3-5 the town would be under 40-50 feet of water. They got **** lucky on Katrina... the problem there was that the levees and pumps failed. If it were a direct hit levees and pumps won't matter. We know its a matter of time. Its not like all of Oakland is going to burn down because of a wildfire.

[hockeyplayer1015]

Re: 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

This was a really great post. Thank you.

No problem, it's pretty neat/fun to use my knowledge of the waterways affected by this to help you guys understand things a little better than what the media reports would say.

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

Highly unlikely that the river will crest at anything close to floodstage due to this rainfall. Most places along the entire lower half of the Mississippi River are 10 feet or so below NORMAL levels, let alone flood levels. Shoot, in some places, we are ~40-50 ft below where things were in the Spring of 2011. There should be virtually no chance of flooding from the river itself.



I'm not going to say it won't happen, but as far as low laying areas, there really aren't many at all right now. Picture a drying up river that meanders through a canyon. As it falls and the river begins to dry up, you increase the height of bank protection on both sides proportionally. The river can probably safely come up 15-20 feet and we'd still be alright (except for Baton Rouge and below, really. They would be closer to the 10-15 ft range before things get sketchy, but that would be a HUGE increase, even if you stretch the timeframe out to a month or so.)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lmrfc/?n=lmr...oriverforecast

That gives an idea of the river stages and predictions. Not liking what I'm seeing right now with NOLA and Baton Rouge going back to what they were pre-Issac in the next 5 days... for now. Hope that doesn't hold true.

This was a really great post. Thank you.

[hockeyplayer1015]

Re: 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

If I was living next to the Mississippi and saw all that water being dumped over its system in the next week or do, I'd be a bit concerned.

Highly unlikely that the river will crest at anything close to floodstage due to this rainfall. Most places along the entire lower half of the Mississippi River are 10 feet or so below NORMAL levels, let alone flood levels. Shoot, in some places, we are ~40-50 ft below where things were in the Spring of 2011. There should be virtually no chance of flooding from the river itself.

eh, the River has been down all year due to the drought. Maybe in a few select spots where its really low laying and the ground is all dried out to where the water can't soak into the ground, but it shouldn't be that bad all and all. Might have a levee failure somewhere because the water jumps up on it quick and eats away at it. But maybe one or 2 of them at the most.

I'm not going to say it won't happen, but as far as low laying areas, there really aren't many at all right now. Picture a drying up river that meanders through a canyon. As it falls and the river begins to dry up, you increase the height of bank protection on both sides proportionally. The river can probably safely come up 15-20 feet and we'd still be alright (except for Baton Rouge and below, really. They would be closer to the 10-15 ft range before things get sketchy, but that would be a HUGE increase, even if you stretch the timeframe out to a month or so.)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lmrfc/?n=lmr...oriverforecast

That gives an idea of the river stages and predictions. Not liking what I'm seeing right now with NOLA and Baton Rouge going back to what they were pre-Issac in the next 5 days... for now. Hope that doesn't hold true.

[joecct]

FWIW, New Orleans levies held. They escaped major damage. So your focus of wanted destruction didn't happen. Hope that puts a knot in your stomach.

If I was living next to the Mississippi and saw all that water being dumped over its system in the next week or do, I'd be a bit concerned.

[alfablue]

Re: 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

FWIW, New Orleans levies held. They escaped major damage. So your focus of wanted destruction didn't happen. Hope that puts a knot in your stomach.

[mookie1995]

Re: 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

And it would be interesting to see the number of repeat customers from Issac, which I suspect is few.

cause the po' blacks stayed in houston? whites had insurance and were able to come back and clean up?

that plaquedteeth parish under water now was under then, no? so if anyone didn't leave they are the repeats. whites with insurance are in NO proper and that is staying dry (for now).

[alfablue]

Re: 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

However you all want to justify it in your heads, you are all talking the lives of fellow Americans. Specifically ones in New Orlenas (which a recent WC picture still shows as quite over water).

Shocking how callous some of you are. I hope you never excpet any sympathy for issues for yourselves- quite the opposite should happen based on your attitudes toward other people.

BTW, the cost of the Northridge quake was $15B that you got to help pay for.

Not sure how much damage tornados cost.

And it would be interesting to see the number of repeat customers from Issac, which I suspect is few.

[LynahFan]

Re: 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

I'd agree if it wasn't the government that backed the insurance and paid out millions on a regular basis to these regions.

Odds of buying a house in tornado ally and having that house damaged by a tornado is tiny compared to the odds of having a house on the coast damaged over the same period by a hurricane.

This.

Anecdote alert: My house in Fort Worth, TX was technically in the "99-year Flood Plain" of the local creek as defined by FEMA, so I had to carry flood insurance in addition to my normal homeowner's insurance. Things being what they were, no insurance companies in Texas offered flood insurance (how's that for market pricing?) so the only option was to buy the insurance directly from FEMA. Quite a racket, really, considering that the FEMA flood survey was ~30 years old and did not account for several dams and other flood control measures which had been added since - they didn't really have much incentive to redraw the maps!

[Almington]

Re: 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

I kind of doubt that. While we think that this is Katrina 2.0, it is very rare that this double hit ever happens. Andrew is now over 20 year past, and Miami has yet to be hit again. Most of the focus here is the lower lying areas in the delta, which doesn't get hit nearly as oftent as the US Carribbean Islands do- St. Thomas, Johns, Croix, Vieques, Culebra, and Puerto Rico. Even on those islands, the serious hurricanes are very few and far between.

While just this year, way outside of Tornado alley, Dexter MI has been hit twice- not in the same place, but close.

So lets not pretend that these areas get hit all the time- they don't- relative to other natural disasters.

If that's the criteria, LA and SF should have moved in the 80's- yet they rebuilt right on top of well known faults.

Why do we focus on New Orleans over any other place that has regular disasters?

Miami hasn't been hit by another Cat 5 storm in 20 years, but the US has only been hit by three Cat 5 storms in the last 150 years.

According to the NHC of the NWS, between 1850 and 20190, Miami has been hit by a major hurricane (Cat 3 or larger) every 18 years and any hurricane every 6 years. for New Orleans the average periods are 23 years and 10 years.

Major earthquakes don't level Southern Cal towns nor are Midwest towns are not leveled by tornadoes anywhere near as frequently as some of these coastal towns are nearly completely destroyed.