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Elections 2012: You must choose the lesser of two weevils

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  • 5mn_Major
    replied
    Re: Elections 2012: You must choose the lesser of two weevils

    Originally posted by WeWantMore View Post
    Right. The final number they came up with after recalculation was Obama 51-44. He's winning Wisconsin, I'm willing to stipulate that up front. But Obama +7 in WI is a 7 point drop from his '08 margin. That happens nationwide and ruh-roh.
    To look at it another way. Obama's 7 pt gap is right on the nose for how state polls have had him over the last few weeks. If swing state polls are either as accurate or at least not bias towards either candidate and hold, Obama wins by 100 EV. So yes, a ruh-roh could well be in order.

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  • WeWantMore
    replied
    Re: Elections 2012: You must choose the lesser of two weevils

    Just as significant as WI last night:

    San Jose voters Tuesday handed Mayor Chuck Reed a crucial victory with his nationally watched pension reform measure passing by a decisive margin.

    It was a big night for pension reform, with a San Diego measure also winning by a wide margin. City employee unions who argued the measures are illegal were expected to challenge both in court.

    Leave a comment:


  • WeWantMore
    replied
    Re: Elections 2012: You must choose the lesser of two weevils

    Originally posted by bronconick View Post
    I wouldn't take anything out of the exit polls and extrapolate to November, as they were clearly inaccurate.
    Right. The final number they came up with after recalculation was Obama 51-44. He's winning Wisconsin, I'm willing to stipulate that up front. But Obama +7 in WI is a 7 point drop from his '08 margin. That happens nationwide and ruh-roh.

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  • bronconick
    replied
    Re: Elections 2012: You must choose the lesser of two weevils

    I wouldn't take anything out of the exit polls and extrapolate to November, as they were clearly inaccurate.

    Leave a comment:


  • 5mn_Major
    replied
    Re: Elections 2012: You must choose the lesser of two weevils

    Saw a bit of the recall last night. Ari Fleisher suggested that Wisconsin is a swing state even though there was an 11% point gap between those who would said they would vote for Obama vs. Romney. His position was because having Walker win by 9% points the 'exit polls were way off' when he was ahead by about 16% pts. I don't know if Fleisher caught that only 1% of votes were in when he made that statement...and last check now, Walker is ahead by just 7% points.

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  • Old Pio
    replied
    Re: Elections 2012: You must choose the lesser of two weevils

    Originally posted by St. Clown View Post
    You can and you can't. Since the president appoints the Chairman of the Fed to four year terms there can be blamed placed, but that chairman may already be in place by the time a president is in office. If that president then renominates said chairman, then both he and the previous president would have to share in that blame. Blame could even be placed even more so upon the second president for renominating that chairman because by that time there's not so much doubt as to what that chairman will do, it's a matter of whether or not he's receiving an approval of executing his job.
    That's true up to a point. POTUS does not make monetary policy, and the Fed can do whatever it wants in that regard, regardless of what assurances a nominee for chairman (or a reappointed chairman) may have made.

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  • St. Clown
    replied
    Re: Elections 2012: You must choose the lesser of two weevils

    Originally posted by Bakunin View Post
    You can't blame a president for monetary policy unless you are prepared to make an argument that the president can control the Fed.
    You can and you can't. Since the president appoints the Chairman of the Fed to four year terms there can be blamed placed, but that chairman may already be in place by the time a president is in office. If that president then renominates said chairman, then both he and the previous president would have to share in that blame. Blame could even be placed even more so upon the second president for renominating that chairman because by that time there's not so much doubt as to what that chairman will do, it's a matter of whether or not he's receiving an approval of executing his job.

    Leave a comment:


  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Re: Elections 2012: You must choose the lesser of two weevils

    Originally posted by bronconick View Post
    Which is the dude from Oregon that keeps pocket vetoing all the anti-internet privacy stuff? I like him.
    Wyden

    Leave a comment:


  • Bakunin
    replied
    Re: Elections 2012: You must choose the lesser of two weevils

    Originally posted by amherstblackbear View Post
    And yet, Bush 43 remains the worst (or at least most irresponsible) combination of fiscal and monetary policies in my lifetime.
    You can't blame a president for monetary policy unless you are prepared to make an argument that the president can control the Fed.

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  • bronconick
    replied
    Re: Elections 2012: You must choose the lesser of two weevils

    Which is the dude from Oregon that keeps pocket vetoing all the anti-internet privacy stuff? I like him.

    Leave a comment:


  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Re: Elections 2012: You must choose the lesser of two weevils

    Originally posted by joecct View Post
    Can you name one who won't cause your teeth to itch like when you hear nails on a chalkboard??
    Sheldon Whitehouse, Ron Wyden, Patty Murray

    Leave a comment:


  • bronconick
    replied
    Re: Elections 2012: You must choose the lesser of two weevils

    Originally posted by joecct View Post
    Can you name one who won't cause your teeth to itch like when you hear nails on a chalkboard??
    They're going to be standing next to a turtle anyway, so they should be jumpy like a hare.

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  • joecct
    replied
    Re: Elections 2012: You must choose the lesser of two weevils

    Originally posted by bronconick View Post
    Well, one group took a look at that "everyone takes it up the poopshoot" deal they made last year to slash entitlements and the military, and immediately went to work passing bills exempting the military from being slashed.

    I blame them more because the Senate Majority Leader doesn't actually know how to do his job. Is there some reason the Dems pick a weak ineffectual leader from a red or purple state every time they're running the Senate? Last 4 Republican leaders> Kansas, Mississippi, Tennessee and Kentucky. Dems should be countering with Northeastern and west coast senators that can say what they want and don't have to fear losing their seat.
    Can you name one who won't cause your teeth to itch like when you hear nails on a chalkboard??

    Leave a comment:


  • geezer
    replied
    Re: Elections 2012: You must choose the lesser of two weevils

    I found Barack Obama's twin brother, separated at birth! Possibly also born in Kenya, or an undisclosed location at sea. He's going under the name Ubaldo Jimenez.

    Leave a comment:


  • bronconick
    replied
    Re: Elections 2012: You must choose the lesser of two weevils

    Well, one group took a look at that "everyone takes it up the poopshoot" deal they made last year to slash entitlements and the military, and immediately went to work passing bills exempting the military from being slashed.

    I blame them more because the Senate Majority Leader doesn't actually know how to do his job. Is there some reason the Dems pick a weak ineffectual leader from a red or purple state every time they're running the Senate? Last 4 Republican leaders> Kansas, Mississippi, Tennessee and Kentucky. Dems should be countering with Northeastern and west coast senators that can say what they want and don't have to fear losing their seat.

    Leave a comment:

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