Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!
Based on Bradley-Terry rankings (i.e., KRACH) found here, the updated (after 4/29) most likely outcomes are:
West: STL in 6 (20.8%), PHX in 5 (23.5%)
East: NYR in 5 (26.8%), PHI in 5 (24.1%)
Overall winning probabilities:
West
STL 54.6% - LAK 45.4%
PHX 77.5% - NSH 22.5%
East
NYR 84.0% - WAS 16.0%
PHI 78.1% - NJD 21.9%
As always, KRACH is not a perfect predictive system. In fact, it's not predictive at all; it's retrodictive. Home-ice advantage, momentum, and the like can not be accounted for reliably, so they are ignored.
Next Round possibilities:
Based on Bradley-Terry rankings (i.e., KRACH) found here, the updated (after 4/29) most likely outcomes are:
West: STL in 6 (20.8%), PHX in 5 (23.5%)
East: NYR in 5 (26.8%), PHI in 5 (24.1%)
Overall winning probabilities:
West
STL 54.6% - LAK 45.4%
PHX 77.5% - NSH 22.5%
East
NYR 84.0% - WAS 16.0%
PHI 78.1% - NJD 21.9%
As always, KRACH is not a perfect predictive system. In fact, it's not predictive at all; it's retrodictive. Home-ice advantage, momentum, and the like can not be accounted for reliably, so they are ignored.
Next Round possibilities:
Code:
------------------------- |WEST | HOME | |CONF.|-----------------| |FINAL| STL | PHX | NSH | |-----------------------| |A|PHX|42.3%|XXXXX|XXXXX| |W|---|-----------------| |A|NSH|12.3%|XXXXX|XXXXX| |Y|---|-----------------| | |LAK|XXXXX|35.2%|10.2%| ------------------------- ------------------------- |EAST | HOME | |CONF.|-----------------| |FINAL| NYR | PHI | NJD | |-----------------------| |A|PHI|65.6%|XXXXX|XXXXX| |W|---|-----------------| |A|NJD|18.4%|XXXXX|XXXXX| |Y|---|-----------------| | |WAS|XXXXX|12.5%|3.50%| -------------------------
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