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NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

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  • Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

    Based on Bradley-Terry rankings (i.e., KRACH) found here, the updated (after 4/29) most likely outcomes are:

    West: STL in 6 (20.8%), PHX in 5 (23.5%)
    East: NYR in 5 (26.8%), PHI in 5 (24.1%)

    Overall winning probabilities:
    West
    STL 54.6% - LAK 45.4%
    PHX 77.5% - NSH 22.5%

    East
    NYR 84.0% - WAS 16.0%
    PHI 78.1% - NJD 21.9%

    As always, KRACH is not a perfect predictive system. In fact, it's not predictive at all; it's retrodictive. Home-ice advantage, momentum, and the like can not be accounted for reliably, so they are ignored.

    Next Round possibilities:
    Code:
    -------------------------
    |WEST |    HOME         |
    |CONF.|-----------------|
    |FINAL| STL | PHX | NSH |
    |-----------------------|
    |A|PHX|42.3%|XXXXX|XXXXX|
    |W|---|-----------------|
    |A|NSH|12.3%|XXXXX|XXXXX|
    |Y|---|-----------------|
    | |LAK|XXXXX|35.2%|10.2%|
    -------------------------
    
    -------------------------
    |EAST |    HOME         |
    |CONF.|-----------------|
    |FINAL| NYR | PHI | NJD |
    |-----------------------|
    |A|PHI|65.6%|XXXXX|XXXXX|
    |W|---|-----------------|
    |A|NJD|18.4%|XXXXX|XXXXX|
    |Y|---|-----------------|
    | |WAS|XXXXX|12.5%|3.50%|
    -------------------------
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

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    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
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    • Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

      Wow, it goes from NSH in 7 to PHX in 5 in just one game? Pretty impressive swing.
      Go Red!!

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      • Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

        Originally posted by burgie12 View Post
        Wow, it goes from NSH in 7 to PHX in 5 in just one game? Pretty impressive swing.
        NHL teams that win the first two games of a best-of-seven series go on to win the series over 85% of the time.
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        • Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

          Originally posted by burgie12 View Post
          Wow, it goes from NSH in 7 to PHX in 5 in just one game? Pretty impressive swing.
          The same thing happened when LAK went up 2-0 against the Canucks last round.
          RPI Pep Band
          GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
          🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

          2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
          2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
          2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

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          • Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

            So is tripping just allowed now in the NHL? It seems to be given how much of it the Caps are being allowed to do.
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            • Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

              St. Louis is in full pants-crapping mode.
              "I went over the facts in my head, and admired how much uglier the situation had just become. Over the years I've learned that ignorance is more than just bliss. It's freaking orgasmic ecstasy".- Harry Dresden, Blood Rites


              Western Michigan Bronco Hockey- 2012 Mason Cup Champions

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              • Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

                I'm really starting to hate LA.

                And who are these guys and what did they do with my team?

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                • Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

                  This game is a joke. In the worst days of the Devils I have never seen a team get away with as much as the Caps have been tonight. If this gave were being called reasonably the Rangers would have three times as many power plays as they do. It's do bad that even the announcers are calling then out on it with Boyle getting interfered with on that draw. These teams having a similar number of power plays is the worst kind of "don't decide the game" officiating where you totally ignore the fact that you can decide a game by not making a call too. I hope Torts points this out and gets a fine for it.
                  Cornell University Men's Hockey
                  NCAA Champions: 1967, 1970
                  ECAC Champions: 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010, 2024
                  Ivy League Champions: 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2024

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                  • Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

                    Originally posted by REDaero91 View Post
                    I'm really starting to hate LA.

                    And who are these guys and what did they do with my team?
                    "We've secretly replaced the ghost of Terry Sawchuk possessing Brian Elliott with well, Brian Elliott. Let's see if anyone notices. "
                    "I went over the facts in my head, and admired how much uglier the situation had just become. Over the years I've learned that ignorance is more than just bliss. It's freaking orgasmic ecstasy".- Harry Dresden, Blood Rites


                    Western Michigan Bronco Hockey- 2012 Mason Cup Champions

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                    • Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

                      What a joke of a game. Those refs should be ashamed of themselves for that garbage.
                      Cornell University Men's Hockey
                      NCAA Champions: 1967, 1970
                      ECAC Champions: 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010, 2024
                      Ivy League Champions: 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2024

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                      • Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

                        Originally posted by jmh View Post
                        This game is a joke. In the worst days of the Devils I have never seen a team get away with as much as the Caps have been tonight. If this gave were being called reasonably the Rangers would have three times as many power plays as they do. It's do bad that even the announcers are calling then out on it with Boyle getting interfered with on that draw. These teams having a similar number of power plays is the worst kind of "don't decide the game" officiating where you totally ignore the fact that you can decide a game by not making a call too. I hope Torts points this out and gets a fine for it.
                        You know the league hates Torts.
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                        • Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

                          Originally posted by jmh View Post
                          This game is a joke. In the worst days of the Devils I have never seen a team get away with as much as the Caps have been tonight. If this gave were being called reasonably the Rangers would have three times as many power plays as they do. It's do bad that even the announcers are calling then out on it with Boyle getting interfered with on that draw. These teams having a similar number of power plays is the worst kind of "don't decide the game" officiating where you totally ignore the fact that you can decide a game by not making a call too. I hope Torts points this out and gets a fine for it.
                          As a Rangers fan, I didn't think it was that bad. I hated the Boyle and Richards penalties but I think the Rangers were benefiting from inconsistent refereeing before that point. I think the linesmen really struggled in this game, missing offsides calls constantly and not paying attention on icings really took the flow out of the game. I think the Rangers were victims of some bad bounces and poorly timed mistakes. Next game I'd like to see Richards paired with Hagelin and Anisimov for a few shifts to see if something is there. Also, I think Lundqvist has to do a better job playing that puck on the second goal, be more confident with it if you're going to venture out of the net.

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                          • Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

                            I hope someone is collecting all of jmh's whines from this playoff. It would make for epic reading when all laid end to end....

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                            • Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

                              Originally posted by goldy_331 View Post
                              I hope someone is collecting all of jmh's whines from this playoff. It would make for epic reading when all laid end to end....
                              You'd think a Cornell fan would absolutely love the way the Capitals have been playing.
                              Old Monster Records

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                              • Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

                                Originally posted by bronconick View Post
                                St. Louis is in full pants-crapping mode.
                                Even Michigan Tech got Brian Elliott pulled once. I'm a little surprised it hasn't happened already.

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