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NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

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  • Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

    East
    NYR-OTT
    Initial projection: New York in 5, 24.3%
    Overall projection: New York wins, 78.5%
    Actual outcome: New York in 7
    Initial possibility: 15.6% (4th most likely of 8)

    BOS-WAS
    Initial projection: Boston in 6, 18.2%
    Overall projection: Boston wins, 59.5%
    Actual outcome: Washington in 7
    Initial possibility: 13.9% (4th most likely of 8)

    FLA-NJD
    Initial projection: New Jersey in 6, 18.5%
    Overall projection: New Jersey, 60.8%
    Actual outcome: New Jersey in 7
    Initial possibility: 16.7% (2nd most likely of 8)

    PIT-PHI
    Initial projection: Philadelphia in 6, 16.1%
    Overall projection: Philadelphia wins, 51.5%
    Actual outcome: Philadelphia in 6
    Initial possibility: 16.1% (1st most likely of 8)

    How I (the numbers) did: 1 winner and length, 2 winners (wrong length), 1 wrong winner
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

    Comment


    • Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

      Now for next round. Based on Bradley-Terry rankings (i.e., KRACH) found here, the initial most likely outcomes are:

      West: STL in 5 (22.0%), NSH in 6 (18.7%)
      East: NYR in 5 (21.2%), PHI in 6 (19.2%)

      Overall winning probabilities:
      West
      STL 73.8% - LAK 26.2%
      PHX 38.5% - NSH 61.5%

      East
      NYR 72.1% - WAS 27.9%
      PHI 63.7% - NJD 36.3%

      As always, KRACH is not a perfect predictive system. In fact, it's not predictive at all; it's retrodictive. Home-ice advantage, momentum, and the like can not be accounted for reliably, so they are ignored.

      Remarks: The numbers are very cocky. Philly is only going to win this series if they learn how to defense.

      Next Round possibilities:
      Code:
      -------------------------
      |WEST |    HOME         |
      |CONF.|-----------------|
      |     | STL | PHX | NSH |
      |-----------------------|
      |A|PHX|28.4%|XXXXX|XXXXX|
      |W|---|-----------------|
      |A|NSH|45.4%|XXXXX|XXXXX|
      |Y|---|-----------------|
      | |LAK|XXXXX|10.1%|16.1%|
      -------------------------
      
      -------------------------
      |EAST |    HOME         |
      |CONF.|-----------------|
      |     | NYR | PHI | NJD |
      |-----------------------|
      |A|PHI|45.9%|XXXXX|XXXXX|
      |W|---|-----------------|
      |A|NJD|26.2%|XXXXX|XXXXX|
      |Y|---|-----------------|
      | |WAS|XXXXX|17.6%|10.1%|
      -------------------------
      RPI Pep Band
      GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
      🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

      2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
      2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
      2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

      Comment


      • Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

        If you entered the NHL's bracket challenge, don't forget to make picks for the next round: http://playoffschallenge.nhl.com/pla...enge?locale=en

        Comment


        • Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

          Originally posted by MountieBoyOz View Post
          This is a solid column. Well done and sums up feeling about the Ward tweets.

          http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-pu...LjeeF8itF7vLYF
          A great article, if only for the use of the term "asshat" on a widely visited website.
          If you want to be a BADGER, just come along with me

          BRING BACK PAT RICHTER!!!


          At his graduation ceremony from the U of Minnesota, my cousin got a keychain. When asked what UW gave her for graduation, my sister said, "A degree from a University that matters."

          Canned music is a pathetic waste of your time.

          Comment


          • Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

            I wanna see Flyers-Rangers, Kings-Coyotes.

            Then Kings-Rangers. LA-NY.

            Thank Parise we avoided Caps-Devils. *yawn*
            It Happened!!!!

            Comment


            • Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

              Originally posted by Bomber View Post
              I wanna see Flyers-Rangers
              Even for the many people who hate both of these teams, I think you have to admit that this would be the most entertaining series of the four options we have.
              Cornell University Men's Hockey
              NCAA Champions: 1967, 1970
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              • Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

                Originally posted by jmh View Post
                Even for the many people who hate both of these teams, I think you have to admit that this would be the most entertaining series of the four options we have.
                Yep. This should would be highly entertaining. Especially after 24/7 and the Winter Classic.
                It Happened!!!!

                Comment


                • Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

                  Originally posted by jmh View Post
                  Even for the many people who hate both of these teams, I think you have to admit that this would be the most entertaining series of the four options we have.
                  It would have been a lot more fun in 1978. Nothing like the #3 goalies pairing off.



                  What's left of the NHL makes me a Ranger fan for the next two months.
                  Last edited by Kepler; 04-27-2012, 02:56 PM.
                  Cornell University
                  National Champion 1967, 1970
                  ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
                  Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by REDaero91 View Post
                    If you entered the NHL's bracket challenge, don't forget to make picks for the next round: http://playoffschallenge.nhl.com/pla...enge?locale=en
                    Originally posted by REDaero91 View Post
                    If you entered the NHL's bracket challenge, don't forget to make picks for the next round: http://playoffschallenge.nhl.com/pla...enge?locale=en
                    Originally posted by REDaero91 View Post
                    If you entered the NHL's bracket challenge, don't forget to make picks for the next round: http://playoffschallenge.nhl.com/pla...enge?locale=en
                    Picks are due by 9.

                    Statistics! is leading and I'm tied for 2nd with REDaero. When I get the chance, I'll look at what made everyone else suck so much

                    Go Flyers!
                    Go Red!!

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                    • Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

                      They've tried to hide them, but there are some empty seats in Phoenix...
                      U-A-A!!!Go!Go!GreenandGold!
                      Applejack Tells You How UAA Is Doing...
                      I spell Failure with UAF

                      Originally posted by UAFIceAngel
                      But let's be real...There are 40 some other teams and only two alaskan teams...the day one of us wins something big will be the day I transfer to UAA
                      Originally posted by Doyle Woody
                      Best sign by a visting Seawolf fan Friday went to a young man who held up a piece of white poster board that read: "YOU CAN'T SPELL FAILURE WITHOUT UAF."

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                      • Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

                        This is when I knew the Rangers were going to lose the series:



                        The ultimate beat down and not one Ranger came to his aide. I was watching on TV and could not believe it.
                        CCT '77 & '78
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                        I want to live forever. So far, so good.

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                        • Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

                          So this game has to end at least 3-2. That's practically a blowout from what predictions for this series were.

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                          • Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

                            Nashville's coach is kinda creepy looking.

                            Comment


                            • Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

                              I predict that I'm going to get sick of that howling wolf quickly.

                              Comment


                              • Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

                                Originally posted by REDaero91 View Post
                                So this game has to end at least 3-2. That's practically a blowout from what predictions for this series were.
                                Given the same rate of scoring, a Pitts-Philly game would be at least 9-8 right now.

                                Originally posted by Scarlet View Post
                                Nashville's coach is kinda creepy looking.
                                Trotz the Neckless Wonder?

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