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  • #16
    Re: statistics question

    Originally posted by Patman View Post
    Careful... its common accepted practice in these situations to look at the entire tail... afterall, if i had a 500 person panel any result will be very rare.
    Right - that's why I said you should really consider all 9 possible panels that could result in zero As on the jury.

    That being said, i would think the eye-ball situation seems about right... but you also have to remember that people actually show up for jury duty and they don't always hunt you down if you don't show. Also you have to consider that odd situations do occur in the stream of reality... while your wife is a one-shot deal if this is over months and years something weird has a higher chance than you think. Like for example, the chance of 3 perfect games in a single month is not nearly as remote as one may want to believe.
    Yes - lots of self-selection involved in juries.

    edit: ok, its more like 1 in 180,000 for a single instance... and over the course of a work year the chance of it happening is still small 1 in 721... I'd still wonder about self-selection... no shows.
    1 in 180000 for the panel to contain 4 or fewer As, but it would still be considerably less likely than that (by orders of magnitude) for the actual jury to contain zero As.

    I think only about 40% of Americans have 4-year or 2-year college degrees, so it's more likely that 70% = people without a 4-year degree.
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    • #17
      Re: statistics question

      Originally posted by LynahFan View Post
      1 in 180000 for the panel to contain 4 or fewer As,
      Which was his question.

      I think only about 40% of Americans have 4-year or 2-year college degrees, so it's more likely that 70% = people without a 4-year degree.
      Which was what would make it interesting. Figure a college town, so tons of people with at least some college on their record. The 1:180k draw is statistically unlucky; then whichever lawyer has the weaker case gets rid of the 4 remaining possibilities for, I dunno, poor hygiene (entirely believable), which was not unlucky in the least, but that's beside the point.

      We were just having fun guessing, anyway. Everybody knows the real answer is "lesbians," and the county is Grafton Cty, NH.
      Last edited by Kepler; 03-01-2012, 03:45 PM.
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      • #18
        Re: statistics question

        Originally posted by LynahFan View Post
        Right - that's why I said you should really consider all 9 possible panels that could result in zero As on the jury.


        Yes - lots of self-selection involved in juries.

        1 in 180000 for the panel to contain 4 or fewer As, but it would still be considerably less likely than that (by orders of magnitude) for the actual jury to contain zero As.

        I think only about 40% of Americans have 4-year or 2-year college degrees, so it's more likely that 70% = people without a 4-year degree.
        Yes, but lawyers are allowed to discriminate in dismissing jurors pre-trial (laws of the state may vary, etc, etc.)... rightly or wrongly. The only true question of a rigged pool is in situations where the pool isn't supposed to be rigged. How many 18 year-olds sit on drunk driving juries? Its a different thing if your black box isn't really a black box... that's a problem... but the final jury can be a matter of juror characteristics and thus the metric of "fair" becomes arbitrary.

        The last case, would be a hypergeometic distribution if you believed that assignments should be random... that being said, in light of the above, we are very sure they aren't random.

        edit: I should point out that i found the chance of a 20 person pool having 4 people (or fewer) with that characteristic. The final question can be skinned as a probability question but only if you assume there is supposed to be a truly random equal probability metric... our knowledge of the courts say there isn't.
        Last edited by Patman; 03-01-2012, 04:49 PM.
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        • #19
          Re: statistics question

          Originally posted by LynahFan View Post
          Right - that's why I said you should really consider all 9 possible panels that could result in zero As on the jury.
          Except in the hypothetical case where there are only five-8 A's on the panel, my wife would have made sure at least one of them stayed on. The only way to get 0 on the final jury in this scenario is if the county attorney could strike them all, which means 4 or fewer, not 8 or fewer.

          And Patman, intentionally or not, guessed 'A.' The charge was OWI 1st, and the panel only had four people who had even touched alcohol in their lives. The other 16 were prohibitionists. In a freaking college town.

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          • #20
            Originally posted by unofan View Post
            Except in the hypothetical case where there are only five-8 A's on the panel, my wife would have made sure at least one of them stayed on. The only way to get 0 on the final jury in this scenario is if the county attorney could strike them all, which means 4 or fewer, not 8 or fewer.

            And Patman, intentionally or not, guessed 'A.' The charge was OWI 1st, and the panel only had four people who had even touched alcohol in their lives. The other 16 were prohibitionists. In a freaking college town.
            It also helps that I've been through the jury pool cycle and I saw a couple of drunk driving case where they gave a boot to anybody who looked young... Including myself as I drew a low number and was 20 at the time.

            I'd also say that I figured this would be a race thing.
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            • #21
              Re: statistics question

              Originally posted by unofan View Post
              And Patman, intentionally or not, guessed 'A.' The charge was OWI 1st, and the panel only had four people who had even touched alcohol in their lives. The other 16 were prohibitionists. In a freaking college town.
              Dry county? Even 30% seems insanely high to me for "opposed to the consumptions of alcohol," this side of Tikrit.
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              • #22
                Re: statistics question

                I haven't really got anything to add. I'm just happy to see the thread on its 2nd page of comments.

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                • #23
                  Re: statistics question

                  Originally posted by Kepler View Post
                  Dry county? Even 30% seems insanely high to me for "opposed to the consumptions of alcohol," this side of Tikrit.
                  You've never been to Kansas or Utah??

                  In New England, liquor stores are still closed on Sundays.
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                  • #24
                    Re: statistics question

                    Originally posted by FreshFish View Post
                    You've never been to Kansas or Utah??

                    In New England, liquor stores are still closed on Sundays.
                    Knew that from my days in Boston.

                    My only memory of the state of sin driving through Kansas was there more more signs on the interstate for gentlemen's clubs than anywhere else in the country.
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                    • #25
                      Re: statistics question

                      Originally posted by Kepler View Post
                      Knew that from my days in Boston.

                      My only memory of the state of sin driving through Kansas was there more more signs on the interstate for gentlemen's clubs than anywhere else in the country.
                      They've gotta drum up business somehow. Goodness knows the quality of the talent wouldn't be enough of a draw.

                      (still marooned in Wichita for work)

                      Is the statistic 30% who are explicitly opposed to alcohol, or 30% who choose not to partake themselves? I like to think there are still SOME people who don't believe that everybody ought to make exactly the same choices they do, but the evidence is pretty scant.
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                      • #26
                        Re: statistics question

                        Originally posted by LynahFan View Post
                        They've gotta drum up business somehow. Goodness knows the quality of the talent wouldn't be enough of a draw.

                        (still marooned in Wichita for work)
                        Hawker-Beech?

                        Hey, by unscientific sample I'd have put Kansas in particular and the Midwest in general near the top of the talent contest, though granted that sample is dominated by states east of the Mississippi and north of the Potomac -- America's Unattractiveness Belt.
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                        • #27
                          Re: statistics question

                          Originally posted by Kepler View Post
                          Hawker-Beech?

                          Hey, by unscientific sample I'd have put Kansas in particular and the Midwest in general near the top of the talent contest, though granted that sample is dominated by states east of the Mississippi and north of the Potomac -- America's Unattractiveness Belt.
                          Learjet. Thank god the 1% are still buying airplanes - loving the trickle-down.

                          Perhaps I'm just spoiled, having grown up in SEC country and then living in Texas, LA, and Europe. FWIW, Kansas is many parsecs ahead of Vermont, which, as far as I know didn't even bother trying to have a strip club - and sometimes had trouble finding even a single candidate who wanted to compete in the various Miss Nation pageants.
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                          • #28
                            Re: statistics question

                            Originally posted by LynahFan View Post
                            Learjet. Thank god the 1% are still buying airplanes - loving the trickle-down.

                            Perhaps I'm just spoiled, having grown up in SEC country and then living in Texas, LA, and Europe. FWIW, Kansas is many parsecs ahead of Vermont, which, as far as I know didn't even bother trying to have a strip club - and sometimes had trouble finding even a single candidate who wanted to compete in the various Miss Nation pageants.
                            There are people in Vermont? I thought it was just cows!

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                            • #29
                              Re: statistics question

                              Originally posted by FlagDUDE08 View Post
                              There are people in Vermont? I thought it was just cows!
                              Asked and answered.
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                              • #30
                                Re: statistics question

                                Originally posted by LynahFan View Post
                                Learjet. Thank god the 1% are still buying airplanes - loving the trickle-down.

                                Perhaps I'm just spoiled, having grown up in SEC country and then living in Texas, LA, and Europe.
                                Yes. You are spoiled. The year I spent in NC made me realize the, um, demographic limitations of most of the rest of the country.
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