2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

The one thing we know for sure is the GOP has gone full Derp this election cycle. Santorum wins Iowa then disappears basically for NH, SC, and Florida, then he sweeps last nights caucuses. I guess he's Mr. Caucus.

Romney may not have learned from Obama very well. Obama sweeping the caucuses pretty much is what killed Hillary.

[WeWantMore]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Romney may not have learned from Obama very well. Obama sweeping the caucuses pretty much is what killed Hillary.

To that point, Romney has so far won every Hillary state and lost every Obama state.

[bronconick]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

To that point, Romney has so far won every Hillary state and lost every Obama state.

I'm not sure what his strategy seems to be. There's nothing else except for the Maine caucuses this weekend until the 28th. His campaign tries to give off the aura of inevitability, but doesn't use its superior organization or money in any of the three states last night. It doesn't matter that no delegates were directly chosen last night, if you're trying to give the vibe of being an unstoppable train toward the nomination, you needed to campaign and win a couple of those so the narrative isn't about freaking Rick Santorum for most of the rest of the month. It's like his advisors can't agree on what to do. If someone else gets into Michigan and starts hammering him on his opposition to the auto bailout, I don't think he can count 100% on Michigan/Arizona being another firewall like Florida.

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

I'm not sure what his strategy seems to be.

I think it's obvious. He's playing Hillary's playbook. And if Santorum can win all the caucuses and get enough steam and steal a primary, Romney may end up on the outside looking in.

[Twitch Boy]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

I'm not sure what his strategy seems to be. There's nothing else except for the Maine caucuses this weekend until the 28th. His campaign tries to give off the aura of inevitability, but doesn't use its superior organization or money in any of the three states last night. It doesn't matter that no delegates were directly chosen last night, if you're trying to give the vibe of being an unstoppable train toward the nomination, you needed to campaign and win a couple of those so the narrative isn't about freaking Rick Santorum for most of the rest of the month. It's like his advisors can't agree on what to do. If someone else gets into Michigan and starts hammering him on his opposition to the auto bailout, I don't think he can count 100% on Michigan/Arizona being another firewall like Florida.

Oh please let Frothy steal MI. Then let the moonbats come out in AZ and go Gingrich. That would be RICH.

[Rover]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

I think Mittens is scrambling for a strategy after Plan A (win Iowa, decisively win NH, win SC and end the race then and there) got blown up by an inconclusive result in Iowa and then a blowout loss in SC. I really can't figure out what they were thinking last night though. Okay, blow off Missouri as its not a sanctioned primary by the party. But to lose Minny, a state with less fire breathers than SC, and Colorado where he kicked butt last time is inexcusable. A long primary does him no favors, and the more people see him the less they like.

I looked at the primary calendar a while back and saw that sometime in April a lot of the Northeast and Atlantic states vote. I was thinking that would be where Romney put the race away. At no time did I stop to consider Santorum who hails from PA would still be a factor in the race.

This is a good sum of last night's events, right down to the part about that commentator who wouldn't give up the ghost even after his candidate got crushed:

Two caucuses, one primary later: Where are we now?

We are just where we have been. The Republican party does not have a candidate for president. The deck keeps being reshuffled, and different jokers keep popping up to the top. But the 75 percent of the party that does not want Mitt can't and won't coalesce over any of the alternatives. Nor will it warm up to the guy it keeps being told is the "inevitable" front-runner. The lack of GOP enthusiasm for its own field can be seen in its turnout — down again last night, as it was in Romney's Florida victory.
Romney was on a roll. He got crushed. Where does Romney stand now? Were we all overrating the importance of political momentum?

Momentum hasn't worked for Romney or Gingrich, and probably won't work for Santorum, either. But the bigger story here is how devastating this loss was for Romney. Yes, these pseudo-primaries were "meaningless." Yes, Romney still has more money, more organization, and more delegates (of the few awarded thus far). But a Washington Post/ABC News poll released just before these contests found that by a margin of more than two to one, Americans say that the more they learn about Mitt, the less they like him, and last night added further proof. The standard interpretation of Mitt's triple defeat on cable news (regardless of network) is that "conservatives rejected Romney." But who exactly isn't rejecting Romney? He couldn't even fill up his headquarters when speaking last night in Denver. And then he gave a talk that reminded anyone who was watching how hollow and fake a candidate he is. He mixed stilted punch lines from his tired anti-Obama script with a bit of hilariously tone-deaf populist posturing — claiming that his father, a fabulously successful auto executive, began his career as some sort of nail-spitting blue-collar carpenter. Hard to know whether to laugh or to cry at these performances. Americans of all stripes seem to abhor Mitt the way nature abhors a vacuum.

But doesn't the GOP Establishment still like Mitt? And won't it keep propping him up?
They are certainly trying to. It was a revealing moment that on CNN last night — at the late hour of 11:20 ET — one of its "expert" talking heads, the former Bush administration flack Ari Fleischer, flatly reassured his credulous fellow panelists that his sources "on the ground" authoritatively told him that Romney would win Colorado. That was the desperate, out-of-touch voice of the GOP Establishment speaking — and again engaging both in denial and wishful thinking. Not long after Fleischer's pronouncement, Mitt lost to Santorum by 5 percent — despite a serious Romney campaign effort in the state and despite having won Colorado in a landslide over McCain four years ago. Fleischer's Dewey-Beats-Truman prediction was another example of the GOP Establishment being clueless about what's happening "on the ground" in its own party or in America. Similarly, another pillar of that Establishment, Peggy Noonan, dismissed Mitt last week as merely an inept stand-in for Jeb Bush — who isn't running — and yet still predicted, illogically, that Obama would lose in the fall. What you see with the GOP Establishment is a bunch of chickens that sense the sky is falling and are running around with their heads cut off.

Does this new Santorum surge mean the religious right isn't dead, after all?
Time for America to start Googling "Santorum" again! If his surge marks a last stand of the much-diminished religious right, the timing could not be more in conflict with American culture right now, from the new victories for same-sex marriage in California and Washington state to the Super Bowl, which was watched by nearly as many Americans as voted in the last presidential election, few or none of whom protested Madonna's homoerotic halftime spectacle. If the GOP wants to run in 2012 by vilifying gay families — or opposing heterosexual contraception — the Democrats are even luckier than it seems.

And finally, whither Newt?
Newt's ego and hatred for Romney will be the gifts that will keep on giving (to Obama) — at least as long as Sheldon Adelson keeps giving him (and/or his unofficial PAC) big checks. Newt has nothing to gain by dropping out. Given his Georgia roots and uninhibited playing of the race card, he may actually fare better in some quarters of the GOP primary electorate in the South than Romney. This race is so askew from its predicted narrative that anything can happen — another Gingrich comeback, or, we can always pray, maybe an independent run by Donald Trump, who could turn on Mitt as quickly as he turns on any celebrity apprentice.

[joecct]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Please let it get to Tampa with no candidate having a majority!! Please!!

[WeWantMore]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Please let it get to Tampa with no candidate having a majority!! Please!!

I'm rooting for this too, but if that does happen, don't you still have to feel like the chances of some savior riding in are pretty low? In other words, isn't it more likely that a majority is attained by 2 candidates joining forces at the convention, with one agreeing to be the VP or some other deal?

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Newt's ego and hatred for Romney will be the gifts that will keep on giving (to Obama) — at least as long as Sheldon Adelson keeps giving him (and/or his unofficial PAC) big checks.

Adelson's gifts to Newt are weird, but this is how I look at them: he can't really gain influence with Mitt by giving him money as he has more than God, but maybe he can by offering to pull the plug on Newt for the right payback. The right payback given Adelson's record must be something to do with Israel.

[WeWantMore]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Among Republicans. And their turnout was down. And the guy on the wrong side of those issues for their base is still going to win their nomination.

Again, I think you're whistling past the graveyard on this contraception thing. It's much bigger than a Republican thing, or a thing among the 2% of Catholics who haven't used contraception.

For example, yesterday two swing state Senate candidates, Tim Kaine of VA and Bob Casey of PA came out against it. Good thing those states aren't important in November or anything.

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Again, I think you're whistling past the graveyard on this contraception thing. It's much bigger than a Republican thing, or a thing among the 2% of Catholics who haven't used contraception.

For example, yesterday two swing state Senate candidates, Tim Kaine of VA and Bob Casey of PA came out against it. Good thing those states aren't important in November or anything.

Maybe. I guess we'll see.

BTW, I don't think VA is "important" in the same way that MI probably isn't "important" -- if those states are in play the election is probably over already. But your larger point is definitely something to think about.

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Again, I think you're whistling past the graveyard on this contraception thing. It's much bigger than a Republican thing, or a thing among the 2% of Catholics who haven't used contraception.

For example, yesterday two swing state Senate candidates, Tim Kaine of VA and Bob Casey of PA came out against it. Good thing those states aren't important in November or anything.

Oh, it's huge. But there's no question it's manufactured. There is no mandate yet and as far as I know they have two years to reach a compromise. This was an election year ploy by the Republicans and it worked like a charm. The Republicans spend a lot of time stirring up social issues to get their base out. If they didn't they wouldn't get elected anywhere near the numbers they do.

[LynahFan]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Playing devil's advocate on the contraception thing, I can definitely understand feathers being a little ruffled. Even if it's something I'm already doing, I still don't like to be told that I *have* to do it. I'm not thinking here of individual Catholics (who would obviously still have the individual choice whether or not to use birth control), but of the health plan providers - even ones who already offer contraception may not like being told that they have to. If I'm a Catholic and I think that my diocese should choose a heath care provider which offers contraception, I still might prefer for the diocese to make that choice rather than having it forced on them by the government.

In the end, it's a stupid issue. Any Catholic who wants birth control can get it, and if you're working for a Catholic organization, your salary is probably low enough that you wouldn't even pay that much based on Planned Parenthood's sliding scale. Democrats should stop pushing for this symbolic victory and Republicans should shut the firetruck up about it.

[Rover]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Sorry but I'm not seeing this contraception thing as being a game changer. It works to the distinct advantage of a guy like Santorum in the primaries to be sure. In fact, one wonders if the WH announced this with that in mind. However, to the average voter when they start seeing headlines that say "Republicans....contraception" start thinking of rabid social conservative knuckledraggers who want to outlaw birth control (sorta the flip side of a "Dems...abortion" headline). Already the WH creamed Romney because he had the same plan in Massachusetts, so unless Santorum wins the nomination somehow this is not an issue the vast majority of Americans truly care about.

I'm curious though how we went from "This election will be about the economy and nothing else" to "this contraception issue will rocket the Republican nominee to victory" inside of a week.

[bronconick]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Seriously. What percentage of people that are up in arms over the contraception thing aren't going to up in arms anyway because they hate the entire health care reform law and want it repealed? 5%? 2%?