Global War on Terror III: Dick Cheney's Hague ICC Vacation

[Hopkinja]

Re: Global War on Terror III: Dick Cheney's Hague ICC Vacation

Not sure I understand, are you trying to imply that it IS in the US national interest to allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons??

Do they have gray on your planet?

[Kepler]

Re: Global War on Terror III: Dick Cheney's Hague ICC Vacation

Not sure I understand, are you trying to imply that it IS in the US national interest to allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons??

Wrong question. The real question has to carry all the consequences of war.

This is the same drive to war (by the same people) that gave us Iraq. They made the case: which is better, Iraq with Saddam or Iraq without Saddam? You don't really think it's in the United States' national interest for Saddam to stay in power, do you?

The real choice was: which is better, Iraq crippled by sanctions vs a US war of choice followed by an occupation, a generation of free recruiting for AQ, the undying enmity of half the Muslim world, 4k US casualties, somewhere between 100k and 500k Iraqi civilian casualties, the removal of the only regional counterweight to Iran, and a $2T price tag.

It is possible that we have a national interest in hemming in the Iranians, especially when it comes to their support of client terrorist groups. But let's be smart about it for once, and not reduce everything to, well, a New York Post editorial.

[FreshFish]

Re: Global War on Terror III: Dick Cheney's Hague ICC Vacation

And vice-versa.

Israel appears to be trying to strong-arm the United States into doing something completely against our national interest.

Not sure I understand, are you trying to imply that it IS in the US national interest to allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons??

[Kepler]

Re: Global War on Terror III: Dick Cheney's Hague ICC Vacation

And vice-versa.

Israel appears to be trying to strong-arm the United States into doing something completely against our national interest. If it was any other ally, with the possible exception of the UK, we would tell them to pound sand. Imagine the French using us as a pawn in their domestic politics this way.

[FreshFish]

Re: Global War on Terror III: Dick Cheney's Hague ICC Vacation

Okay, now this is starting to get really scary

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion...E30v7P5howES3J

[joecct]

Re: Global War on Terror III: Dick Cheney's Hague ICC Vacation

From what I've read, there is substantial disagreement among the clerics about Khamenei, some of them think he has become too egotistical and unbalanced. Many of them think the crackdown during the popular uprising was too harsh and too brutal.

Check out the writing of a journalist named Amir Taheri; I've been reading his work for years now and he seems to have good insight and great connections for sources. Many of his forward-looking columns have turned out to be spot on as the situations played out.

Unfortunately, it seems quite likely that if Iran does develop a nuclear weapon, they almost certainly will use it in a first strike. Even if they don't, I wouldn't be surprised if a few other "players" try to launch an attack that looks like it came from Iran, so that retaliation will then ensue.

This is too eerily similar to the situation in Europe in the mid- to late-1930s for my comfort!

Think it may be more intune with Europe 1912-14. The Balkans were a powder keg ready to go - and then stupidity took over and slaughtered an entire generation. Then they did it all over again 20 years later.

[FreshFish]

Re: Global War on Terror III: Dick Cheney's Hague ICC Vacation

Easier to do in Egypt because the Mubarak govt was just a glorified junta so the army could get rid of him with some internal politics. Iran has the clerics -- for the army to overthrow them could cause a full-on civil war.

From what I've read, there is substantial disagreement among the clerics about Khamenei, some of them think he has become too egotistical and unbalanced. Many of them think the crackdown during the popular uprising was too harsh and too brutal.

Check out the writing of a journalist named Amir Taheri; I've been reading his work for years now and he seems to have good insight and great connections for sources. Many of his forward-looking columns have turned out to be spot on as the situations played out.

Unfortunately, it seems quite likely that if Iran does develop a nuclear weapon, they almost certainly will use it in a first strike. Even if they don't, I wouldn't be surprised if a few other "players" try to launch an attack that looks like it came from Iran, so that retaliation will then ensue.

This is too eerily similar to the situation in Europe in the mid- to late-1930s for my comfort!

[Kepler]

Re: Global War on Terror III: Dick Cheney's Hague ICC Vacation

Similar to what we did in Egypt. We have been subsidizing the military. Its worked more or less. A new democratic Egypt and budget restraints may change that.

Easier to do in Egypt because the Mubarak govt was just a glorified junta so the army could get rid of him with some internal politics. Iran has the clerics -- for the army to overthrow them could cause a full-on civil war.

[5mn_Major]

Re: Global War on Terror III: Dick Cheney's Hague ICC Vacation

The best idea I've seen is to negotiate directly with the leaders of the Revolutionary Guard. They have quite a good deal going for themselves, with all the business interests they own. "We'll spare your property from damage if in return you toss aside the person that is endangering the safety of said property with his recklessness."

Similar to what we did in Egypt. We have been subsidizing the military. Its worked more or less. A new democratic Egypt and budget restraints may change that.

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Global War on Terror III: Dick Cheney's Hague ICC Vacation

You mean talk with the enemy? Why don't you just move to France you surrender monkey!

Or just nuke em. I hear sand turns to glass after a nuclear explosion.

Re: Global War on Terror III: Dick Cheney's Hague ICC Vacation

The best idea I've seen is to negotiate directly with the leaders of the Revolutionary Guard. They have quite a good deal going for themselves, with all the business interests they own. "We'll spare your property from damage if in return you toss aside the person that is endangering the safety of said property with his recklessness."

You mean talk with the enemy? Why don't you just move to France you surrender monkey!

[LynahFan]

Re: Global War on Terror III: Dick Cheney's Hague ICC Vacation

The best idea I've seen is to negotiate directly with the leaders of the Revolutionary Guard. They have quite a good deal going for themselves, with all the business interests they own. "We'll spare your property from damage if in return you toss aside the person that is endangering the safety of said property with his recklessness."

And then be prepared to drone the heck out of their assets if the message isn't received.

[looks up number for hiring manager at General Atomics]

[FreshFish]

Re: Global War on Terror III: Dick Cheney's Hague ICC Vacation

There's no winning a ground war in Iran. The solution (or more probably attempts at one) will come from elsewhere.

The best idea I've seen is to negotiate directly with the leaders of the Revolutionary Guard. They have quite a good deal going for themselves, with all the business interests they own. "We'll spare your property from damage if in return you toss aside the person that is endangering the safety of said property with his recklessness."

[Kepler]

Re: Global War on Terror III: Dick Cheney's Hague ICC Vacation

"War On Terror"

Another black hole that the baby boomers can throw money into.

The Gen Xers were idiots about that, too.

Every generation are idiots in their own way. The "Greatest Generation" poisoned our rivers and air and cheered on the stupidity of Vietnam. Nobody's perfect.

[Kepler]

Re: Global War on Terror III: Dick Cheney's Hague ICC Vacation

You have to suspect that Ahmadinejad's grip is really slipping, right? So why be so provocative with all the nuclear threats and whatnot at such a fragile moment? Doesn't that just hasten his own end, or does he want us to take out "his" citizens along with him? Or drum up support for the regime? or what?

It doesn't make it any less irritating or crazy from our point of view, but this is all nothing new. Every time a Middle Eastern potentate has ethnic or sectarian unrest, he picks a neighbor and saber rattles. Israel is the greatest gift to authoritarian regimes because it's evergreen, and because the Israelis themselves are about as diplomatic as Ulf Samuelsson.