ECAC Women's Pick the Standings 2024-25

[BowWowWow]

It is funny you are asking this because I was just doing more research on this. Trying to see what factor they may be putting into the standings.

At the beginning of the year I always just utilize the USCHO site and say 'Eh...it's not right but enough games have not been played, so who cares.'

But then I think 'The teams care because it makes a difference in their stature and positioning in polls.' (not that anyone used USCHO for that but it helps me understand where everyone is, relatively, when I can't watch every game)

Then I do what you are probably doing right now...scratching your head and saying:

'Did they change the way points are calculated this season because I don't see how team 1 is ahead of team 2 based on win, loss, tie, otw, otl, s.o. record?'

'Can I factor pairwise? npi? krach? to make these numbers make sense? wait...krach isn't used anymore? what was krach anyway?'

Then I devolve into questioning my mathematical and hockey knowledge and say 'I should probably do some work'.

Hope that helps!

Thanks, Earl, I think you're right that the teams care, and the ECAC site in particular should improve its accuracy so that it can be a point of reference for this info.

The strength of schedule at this point in the season can also differ greatly as you were pointing out.

Some teams, like Colgate and Cornell, have played some strong WCHA teams in non-conference play - UMD and Ohio State - and even though they've played fewer conference games, they may be better doing better on pairwise than they are in the ECAC standings.

[Earl_Leatherland]

Where we stand at the end of a few games, including NPCs: (this is the standings according to USCHO - always a little goofy and hard to follow at the beginning of the year)

As of
2024-11-12	2:40:07 PM	Brown	Clarkson	Colgate	Cornell	Dartmouth	Harvard	Princeton	Quinnipiac	RPI	SLU	Union	Yale
Actual		12	8	6	5	1	4	7	10	11	9	2	3
Theorizer	Relevant	Brown	Clarkson	Colgate	Cornell	Dartmouth	Harvard	Princeton	Quinnipiac	RPI	SLU	Union	Yale	Square
Kepler	Yes	12	5	3	1	4	6	10	2	11	9	7	8	170
TBRW	Yes	12	5	3	2	4	6	10	1	11	9	7	8	180
sshablak	Yes	12	1	5	2	4	7	10	3	11	8	6	9	188
iowabasedtraveler	Yes	11	3	6	2	4	5	10	1	12	8	7	9	198
Coaches	Yes	12	4	5	1	3	6	9	2	11	7	8	10	198
Last Year	No	11	5	3	2	4	8	9	1	12	7	6	10	208
apple2k	Yes	11	5	8	1	3	4	12	2	9	6	7	10	210
C.H.I.	Yes	10	4	7	1	3	5	8	2	9	11	6	12	212
Lacitebahpla	No	12	11	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	1	214
drshoen	Yes	11	5	6	1	4	3	10	2	9	8	7	12	220
GoPuckman	Yes	12	5	8	2	3	4	11	1	6	9	7	10	222
cudmud	Yes	12	4	5	1	6	3	11	2	8	9	7	10	222
The Field House Author	Yes	9	6	5	1	3	4	10	2	8	11	7	12	226
LetsGoTech16	Yes	12	6	4	1	3	5	10	2	8	7	9	11	228
will	Yes	11	5	8	1	3	6	12	2	9	4	7	10	230
Skate79	Yes	10	3	8	2	4	5	11	1	9	7	6	12	254
GoldenBear	Yes	12	6	5	1	3	7	10	2	8	4	9	11	254
The Field House Model	Yes	8	3	5	2	4	6	9	1	11	10	7	12	256
Rainman	Yes	11	7	5	2	6	3	12	1	9	4	8	10	258
Bronco Hockey Fan	Yes	10	3	9	2	5	7	11	1	6	8	4	12	280
TchrBill	Yes	11	3	10	1	4	9	8	2	7	5	6	12	286
Ralph Baer	Yes	11	4	3	1	5	7	10	2	6	8	9	12	296
Random	No	9	1	8	4	12	2	7	5	6	10	3	11	304
QuasiCosmos	Yes	11	3	7	4	2	9	6	1	8	5	10	12	306
Earl_Leatherland	Yes	9	3	8	2	4	5	12	1	7	6	11	10	318
Dutchman	Yes	12	4	6	2	11	3	9	1	7	5	8	10	328
Alphabetical	No	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	358
Total		10.6	4.3	6.0	2.0	4.6	5.5	9.6	2.1	8.6	7.3	7.1	10.3	245.3

Kepler leads the way in early in the year.
Alphabetical, the absolute homer, drops to last.
Dutchman and I sit on the bottom.

[Earl_Leatherland]

Where we stand as of: Still including NPCs

As of
2024-11-12	2:44:20 PM	Bro	Clark	Col	Corn	Dart	Harv	Prince	Quin	RPI	SLU	Union	Yale
Actual		1	6	3	5	12	11	9	2	10	7	4	8
Theorizer	Relevant	Brown	Clarkson	Colgate	Cornell	Dartmouth	Harvard	Princeton	Quinnipiac	RPI	SLU	Union	Yale	Square
LetsGoTech16	Yes	4	1	3	2	12	11	8	6	10	5	9	7	90
vicb	Yes	4	3	1	2	12	11	7	6	9	5	10	8	92
Earl_Leatherland	Yes	6	1	2	5	10	11	9	4	12	3	8	7	96
apple2k	Yes	6	4	1	2	11	12	7	5	10	3	9	8	98
LongGame	Yes	6	2	1	4	12	10	7	5	11	3	9	8	102
hab	Yes	5	1	3	4	11	12	9	6	7	2	8	10	114
Moosefan1	Yes	5	4	1	2	12	10	7	6	9	3	11	8	120
BowWowWow	Yes	4	1	5	2	12	11	8	7	10	6	9	3	124
Skate79	Yes	8	1	2	3	11	12	7	4	9	5	10	6	134
PondHockeyGuy	Yes	7	4	1	5	9	10	8	3	12	2	11	6	138
sshablak	Yes	6	1	2	3	5	12	9	6	10	4	7	8	139
Nicole Haase	Yes	8	4	1	5	11	9	6	3	12	7	10	2	148
AlwaysCold2	Yes	7	4	3	2	12	11	8	9	5	1	6	10	168
Coach	Yes	8	1	2	3	11	10	7	5	9	4	12	6	172
QuasiCosmos	Yes	11	3	1	2	8	12	7	4	10	5	9	6	180
Last Year	No	9	4	2	5	12	8	7	3	10	6	11	1	182
Alphabetical	No	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	206
Random	No	6	4	3	5	10	1	2	7	9	12	11	8	282
Lacitebahpla	No	12	11	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	1	366
Average		6.5	2.9	2.5	3.6	10.2	9.8	7.2	5.4	9.3	4.7	9.1	6.6	155.3

[Earl_Leatherland]

I don't think anything shocking in results happened this weekend. The games seemed to fall according to estimates, I think. Feel free to chime in on some of the games that I missed.

I noticed that the Clarkson vs SLU games were considered non-conference. Just some tune up games to fill in the schedule?

Theorizer	Square
BowWowWow	70
vicb	72
Nicole Haase	74
LetsGoTech16	76
apple2k	78
Moosefan1	92
Skate79	96
LongGame	98
Earl_Leatherland	104
QuasiCosmos	114
PondHockeyGuy	116
Coach	122
sshablak	135
hab	146
AlwaysCold2	162
Average	103.7

[hab]

Are these still based on the incorrect USCHO standings, or the ECAC standings? USCHO has the point totals wrong for QU (should be 13.5 points, not 12) and for RPI (should be 7.5, not 6). So USCHO has the percentages and places in standings wrong for those two teams as well. The ECAC site has the point totals right (and the standings based on point totals) but does not show win %. If anyone is interested here are the standings based on %:
Colgate .944
Cornell .833
QU .750
Clarkson .667
SLU .625
Yale .563
Union .556
Brown .500
RPI .417
Princeton .333
Harvard .125
Dartmouth .042
Dramatically better for Clarkson and SLU who have played only 4 conference games and worse for Brown and Yale who have played 8. As we get deeper into the season the differences will diminish, of course. Note that the two SLU vs Clarkson games were non-conference.

[Earl_Leatherland]

Thanks hab . I base it off of the USCHO listing every year. I go back an forth between verification but always use the USCHO list.

The beginning of every year is always a mess with standings and projections until a "relatively" equal number of games are played. Usually starts to wash out by the end of November.

[hab]

Thanks hab . I base it off of the USCHO listing every year. I go back an forth between verification but always use the USCHO list.

The beginning of every year is always a mess with standings and projections until a "relatively" equal number of games are played. Usually starts to wash out by the end of November.

Thx Leatherhead, I appreciate this thread and your work on it. It is unfortunate that USCHO is so bad at the basics of reporting standings, but until they master simple math I feel compelled to keep reminding folks that they are out to lunch.

[hab]

Still a big disparity in games played, ranging from 6 to 10. So, here are the current standings based on win/loss/tie percentages:
Colgate 875
Cornell 813
Clarkson 722
SLU 667
QU 625
Union 556
Yale 483
Brown 450
RPI 417
Princeton 333
Harvard 125
Dartmouth 042

[Earl_Leatherland]

Ultimately, it will be the points standings and not winning percentage that prevails for this competition, but your point is well taken hab.

Rankings based on numbers shown on College Hockey News.

It doesn't take much to list both here, and so I shall:

Official Competition Rankings (based on points)

As of
2024-11-27
Actual
Theorizer	Square
vicb	62
Nicole Haase	66
LetsGoTech16	66
apple2k	66
Skate79	70
BowWowWow	72
Last Year	78
Moosefan1	80
LongGame	84
Earl_Leatherland	86
QuasiCosmos	90
PondHockeyGuy	96
Coach	96
sshablak	121
hab	122
AlwaysCold2	154
Alphabetical	232
Random	250
Lacitebahpla	340
Average	117.4

vicb runs the show for our competition at this point.


Power Ranking (based on current win percentage):

As of
2024-11-27
Win %
Theorizer	Square
apple2k	28
LongGame	34
Skate79	36
Earl_Leatherland	38
LetsGoTech16	40
vicb	44
hab	46
Moosefan1	48
QuasiCosmos	48
Coach	54
AlwaysCold2	60
sshablak	65
PondHockeyGuy	68
BowWowWow	74
Nicole Haase	94
Last Year	100
Alphabetical	236
Random	280
Lacitebahpla	336
Average	91.0

Overall average is much more accurate with the winning percentage.

[hab]

Ultimately, it will be the points standings and not winning percentage that prevails for this competition, but your point is well taken hab.

Ultimately, the two will produce the same result . So, I will continue to focus mostly on the percentages, and I appreciate that you are showing both.
Thanks again for your great work on this.

[Earl_Leatherland]

As of
2025-01-03
Actual
Theorizer	Square
Skate79	34
apple2k	40
QuasiCosmos	44
Coach	46
LongGame	48
LetsGoTech16	50
vicb	54
Moosefan1	54
Earl_Leatherland	54
hab	62
BowWowWow	66
AlwaysCold2	66
PondHockeyGuy	74
Last Year	78
sshablak	79
Nicole Haase	84
Alphabetical	262
Random	282
Lacitebahpla	310
Average	94.1

[Earl_Leatherland]

As of
2025-01-03
Win %
Theorizer	Square
apple2k	40
Skate79	44
hab	44
AlwaysCold2	46
LongGame	50
QuasiCosmos	54
vicb	56
LetsGoTech16	58
Moosefan1	58
Earl_Leatherland	60
Coach	62
sshablak	77
PondHockeyGuy	90
BowWowWow	100
Last Year	120
Nicole Haase	122
Alphabetical	246
Random	288
Lacitebahpla	326
Average	102.2