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2024 Pairwise Predictor

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  • #16
    The Pairwise changes after Friday's playoff games include UMD and Quinnipiac flipping. Duluth is now 8, and Quinnipiac 9. They were ranked that way in the poll. Duluth and Quinnipiac could both make it to the national tournament if SLU were to drop, for which UMD and Quinnipiac would have to do well and SLU would probably have to lose its series to Yale, in 3 games, after SLU has won the first. Pairwise teams 1-6 - Ohio State, Wisconsin, Clarkson, Colgate, Minnesota, and Cornell - appear to be a lock now for the national tourney. After a bit of experimenting, at least, I haven't found any scenario in which Cornell or the higher teams are out.

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    • #17
      Originally posted by BowWowWow View Post
      The Pairwise changes after Friday's playoff games include UMD and Quinnipiac flipping. Duluth is now 8, and Quinnipiac 9. They were ranked that way in the poll. Duluth and Quinnipiac could both make it to the national tournament if SLU were to drop, for which UMD and Quinnipiac would have to do well and SLU would probably have to lose its series to Yale, in 3 games, after SLU has won the first. Pairwise teams 1-6 - Ohio State, Wisconsin, Clarkson, Colgate, Minnesota, and Cornell - appear to be a lock now for the national tourney. After a bit of experimenting, at least, I haven't found any scenario in which Cornell or the higher teams are out.
      On a second try with the experimenting, Cornell wouldn't make it to the national tournament if St. Lawrence wins their series (in 2 games - or in 3 with a win in the semifinals), Quinnipiac beats Cornell in 3, and the ECAC and WCHA tournaments end with upset auto-bids. So, only the top 5 teams are a lock for the national tourney.
      Last edited by BowWowWow; 03-02-2024, 09:12 AM.

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      • #18
        Looking at the three leagues with automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament without a team in the top 7/8 PWR:

        With Franklin Pierce upsetting LIU (PWR #18T) in the NEWHA Tournament, am I correct to deduce that the NEWHA will be represented in the NCAA Tournament by the winner of next Saturday's game between Stonehill (PWR #30) and Franklin Pierce (PWR #32)?

        CHA Tournament champ Penn State (PWR #14) has already punched their ticket.

        And the top four regular season finishers in Hockey East (PWRs #10, 12, 17, 18T) will battle next weekend for their league's automatic spot in the NCAA Tournament.

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        • #19
          Originally posted by QuasiCosmos View Post
          Looking at the three leagues with automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament without a team in the top 7/8 PWR:

          With Franklin Pierce upsetting LIU (PWR #18T) in the NEWHA Tournament, am I correct to deduce that the NEWHA will be represented in the NCAA Tournament by the winner of next Saturday's game between Stonehill (PWR #30) and Franklin Pierce (PWR #32)?

          CHA Tournament champ Penn State (PWR #14) has already punched their ticket.

          And the top four regular season finishers in Hockey East (PWRs #10, 12, 17, 18T) will battle next weekend for their league's automatic spot in the NCAA Tournament.
          Yes.

          The Stonehill - Franklin Pierce winner will be the #11 seed, and travel to the location of the #3 seed to take on the #6 seed.

          Penn State will either be the #10 seed or #9 seed, depend on HE winner, and travel to the location of the #2 seed or Ohio State, the #1 seed. #10 and #7 will go to #2, #8 and #9 will go to Ohio St. And the reverse for the HE winner, depending whether their Pairwise rank higher or lower than Penn State.

          #4 and #5 play one another without a Thursday play-in game at their site.

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          • #20
            I updated the calculator to include games already played for less input.

            Looking at BC's tournament possibilities should they win the league, because I enjoy suffering, I am pleasantly surprised to see that I can get Clarkson to #2 if Minnesota beats Wisconsin in the semifinal and Clarkson wins the ECAC (sending #10 BC to #2 Clarkson's regional). Would be nice to be able to go watch BC in the tournament in person (though obviously, long way to go to get to that point).

            Playing with the other results, I can't quite get Colgate to #2 -- though I can get them to within 0.00009 of it!
            Last edited by TonyTheTiger20; 03-03-2024, 10:51 AM.
            Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
            Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
            Twitter: @Salzano14


            Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

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            • #21
              Still without knowing who's in the first round, I'm thinking they won't need to move any teams to avoid in-conference matchups for the Thursday games. Seeds 6-11 will include at least 1 ECAC team, probably 2. Seeds 6-11 will include at least 1 WCHA team, maybe 2 in the unlikely case UM drops to 6th. They won't be in a bracket in a way where they play in-conference.

              The WCHA and ECAC each have 4 teams in no matter what. That seems pretty even. (St. Cloud State is out, though they looked good to me in the parts of games I streamed.) The remaining 3 teams will be tournament champions of Hockey East, CHA, and NEWHA in some order. Is this deduction accurate?

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              • #22
                Originally posted by BowWowWow View Post
                Still without knowing who's in the first round, I'm thinking they won't need to move any teams to avoid in-conference matchups for the Thursday games. Seeds 6-11 will include at least 1 ECAC team, probably 2. Seeds 6-11 will include at least 1 WCHA team, maybe 2 in the unlikely case UM drops to 6th. They won't be in a bracket in a way where they play in-conference.

                The WCHA and ECAC each have 4 teams in no matter what. That seems pretty even. (St. Cloud State is out, though they looked good to me in the parts of games I streamed.) The remaining 3 teams will be tournament champions of Hockey East, CHA, and NEWHA in some order. Is this deduction accurate?
                I think all of this is right. With the bottom 3 seeds being WHEA/CHA/NEWHA, that would mean there's zero possibility of a first round intraconference matchup in the 6/11 7/10 and 8/9 games. The 4/5 is allowed to be an intraconference game no matter what. So yeah -- I think we should see bracket integrity maintained regardless of what happens in any of the games with 4/4/1/1/1 representation.
                Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
                Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
                Twitter: @Salzano14


                Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
                  I updated the calculator to include games already played for less input.

                  Looking at BC's tournament possibilities should they win the league, because I enjoy suffering, I am pleasantly surprised to see that I can get Clarkson to #2 if Minnesota beats Wisconsin in the semifinal and Clarkson wins the ECAC (sending #10 BC to #2 Clarkson's regional). Would be nice to be able to go watch BC in the tournament in person (though obviously, long way to go to get to that point).

                  Playing with the other results, I can't quite get Colgate to #2 -- though I can get them to within 0.00009 of it!
                  With or without BC winning HE: start with defaults, have Minnesota lose today to Mankato, have Wisconsin lose to Duluth ---> Colagte #2.

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
                    So yeah -- I think we should see bracket integrity maintained regardless of what happens in any of the games with 4/4/1/1/1 representation.
                    How far down do they seed? I thought it was only down through #5. Meaning, they have to maintain bracket integrity down to #5, but after that, if there is some other consideration, like your no conference matchup before the quarters or, everybody's favorite, reduce travel, then they can play around a bit. For example, if UMD is at #8, and it is a flight to send the 'Dogs to Columbus but not to Madison, well money is still money.

                    "... And lose, and start again at your beginnings
                    And never breathe a word about your loss;" -- Rudyard Kipling

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                    • #25
                      Originally posted by robertearle View Post

                      With or without BC winning HE: start with defaults, have Minnesota lose today to Mankato, have Wisconsin lose to Duluth ---> Colagte #2.
                      Wow totally forgot Minnesota wasn't done -- thanks!
                      Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
                      Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
                      Twitter: @Salzano14


                      Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

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                      • #26
                        Originally posted by ARM View Post
                        How far down do they seed? I thought it was only down through #5. Meaning, they have to maintain bracket integrity down to #5, but after that, if there is some other consideration, like your no conference matchup before the quarters or, everybody's favorite, reduce travel, then they can play around a bit. For example, if UMD is at #8, and it is a flight to send the 'Dogs to Columbus but not to Madison, well money is still money.
                        There is no travel consideration anymore, fortunately. So they will keep everyone in their Pairwise position unless they need to move people around in their seeding "band" to avoid intraconference matchups.
                        Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
                        Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
                        Twitter: @Salzano14


                        Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

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                        • #27
                          Originally posted by ARM View Post
                          How far down do they seed? I thought it was only down through #5. Meaning, they have to maintain bracket integrity down to #5, but after that, if there is some other consideration, like your no conference matchup before the quarters or, everybody's favorite, reduce travel, then they can play around a bit. For example, if UMD is at #8, and it is a flight to send the 'Dogs to Columbus but not to Madison, well money is still money.
                          True that only #1-#5 are numerically assigned a seed. This empty 2024 bracket has numbers on only those seeds, but sounds like the lack of seeds on 6-11 is mostly a technicality and/or due to the intraconference question.

                          On that bracket, I think the regional first-round game at the top is unofficially the 8/9 game; in the middle, the 6/11 game; and, at the bottom, the 7/10 game.

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                          • #28
                            Originally posted by BowWowWow View Post

                            True that only #1-#5 are numerically assigned a seed. This empty 2024 bracket has numbers on only those seeds, but sounds like the lack of seeds on 6-11 is mostly a technicality and/or due to the intraconference question.

                            On that bracket, I think the regional first-round game at the top is unofficially the 8/9 game; in the middle, the 6/11 game; and, at the bottom, the 7/10 game.
                            Yep that's right. The handbook actually words things kind of weirdly all around... they talk about the top 4 seeds all being #1 seeds, but also having individual seeds lol...

                            Page 15 of 19: https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/cha...ampsManual.pdf
                            Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
                            Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
                            Twitter: @Salzano14


                            Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

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                            • #29
                              With Minnesota winning today, is it safe to conclude that all eight teams remaining in the ECAC and WCHA tournaments will make the NCAA tournament, wih only ranking placements being dependent on the results of the two league tournaments?

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                              • #30
                                Originally posted by QuasiCosmos View Post
                                With Minnesota winning today, is it safe to conclude that all eight teams remaining in the ECAC and WCHA tournaments will make the NCAA tournament, wih only ranking placements being dependent on the results of the two league tournaments?
                                Yes! Seems like it to me. This is what I'm finding currently for seeding possibilities for those 8 teams:
                                Ohio State 1, Wisconsin 2-3, Clarkson 2-4, Colgate 3-5, Minnesota 3-5, Cornell 5-7, St. Lawrence 6-8, Minn. Duluth 7-8

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