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  • Originally posted by ARM View Post
    I realize that this is a question that doesn't have a single correct answer, but who do Wisconsin fans think is the one forward on your team that you could least do without? I was thinking it was Sims, but last night reminded me just how vital O'Brien is to your success. I'm sure that Eden, Curl, and L. Edwards also have their admirers. If you're picking teams for one game, who is your first choice up front?
    While Gorbatenko has a better win percentage (which bodes well for the future), and Pickard has a slightly better win percentage - both on many fewer draws - O'Brien has easily the best faceoff win percentage for a team's 'main' center in the WCHA. MJ never does much line matching that I notice, but when I do notice, it's to get O'B out for the faceoff.

    Comment


    • Thinking about the Pairwise and UW's position in it (of course), I think I have this right, and it's good news:

      Ohio State is going to be the #1. Wisconsin is currently #2, ahead of Clarkson, Colgate, and Minnesota. So, how far, if at all, might UW fall? If we assume they manage to not lose either game to St Thomas...

      ... the worst that could happen is a loss to Minnesota in the WCHA semis, and then wait for 'selection Sunday'. To fall as far as 4th, two of those three teams would have to pass them. But Clarkson and Colgate are both ECAC teams, so at least one of them is going to be handed one more loss in their tournament. The Pairwise comparisons with those teams will depend entirely on NPI. And on NPI, I'm pretty sure both cannot catch UW; one maybe, but not both, because of that pending loss.

      Can Minnesota catch them? Here's the 'news': Even if Minnesota beats UW in the WCHA semis, I don't think that will mean Minnesota can win the Pairwise comparison with UW.

      Right now, UW leads in NPI. Assume that a loss would mean Minnesota's NPI passes UW's (it would if Minn goes on to beat Ohio St, and probably would not if Minn loses to Ohio St in the finals). Wisconsin would still lead 3-2 on head-to-head; 3-2 lead head-to-head plus Minn "plus 1" for NPI means they're tied at 3-to-3, and the comparison gets decided on 'common opponents'. And - if I'm properly assigning the 'right' numbers for OT wins and ties - Wisconsin wins 'common opponent' percentages, even if Minnesota wins the WCHA tournament. Meaning Wisconsin wins the Pairwise comparison and stays ahead of Minnesota.

      It is more likely that not that Wisconsin has clinched #2, but I think a certainty that they clinched at least #3.

      We'll know more later when Grant's app goes live.
      Last edited by robertearle; 02-25-2024, 02:37 PM.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by robertearle View Post
        Thinking about the Pairwise and UW's position in it (of course), I think I have this right, and it's good news:

        Ohio State is going to be the #1. Wisconsin is currently #2, ahead of Clarkson, Colgate, and Minnesota. So, how far, if at all, might UW fall? If we assume they manage to not lose either game to St Thomas...

        ... the worst that could happen is a loss to Minnesota in the WCHA semis, and then wait for 'selection Sunday'. To fall as far as 4th, two of those three teams would have to pass them. But Clarkson and Colgate are both ECAC teams, so at least one of them is going to be handed one more loss in their tournament. The Pairwise comparisons with those teams will depend entirely on NPI. And on NPI, I'm pretty sure both cannot catch UW; one maybe, but not both, because of that pending loss.

        Can Minnesota catch them? Here's the 'news': Even if Minnesota beats UW in the WCHA semis, I don't think that will mean Minnesota can win the Pairwise comparison with UW.

        Right now, UW leads in NPI. Assume that a loss would mean Minnesota's NPI passes UW's (it would if Minn goes on to beat Ohio St, and probably would not if Minn loses to Ohio St in the finals). Wisconsin would still lead 3-2 on head-to-head; 3-2 lead head-to-head plus Minn "plus 1" for NPI means they're tied at 3-to-3, and the comparison gets decided on 'common opponents'. And - if I'm properly assigning the 'right' numbers for OT wins and ties - Wisconsin wins 'common opponent' percentages, even if Minnesota wins the WCHA tournament. Meaning Wisconsin wins the Pairwise comparison and stays ahead of Minnesota.

        It is more likely that not that Wisconsin has clinched #2, but I think a certainty that they clinched at least #3.

        We'll know more later when Grant's app goes live.
        Great analysis. Being #2 could be pretty important because it appears there is a separation in qualify of teams beyond the top 6. Being a #3 seed could bring the Gophers into play for a berth to the Frozen Four. You certainly don't want to be #4 and potentially see OSU in the Frozen Four semi's assuming you get there.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by ARM View Post
          I realize that this is a question that doesn't have a single correct answer, but who do Wisconsin fans think is the one forward on your team that you could least do without? I was thinking it was Sims, but last night reminded me just how vital O'Brien is to your success. I'm sure that Eden, Curl, and L. Edwards also have their admirers. If you're picking teams for one game, who is your first choice up front?
          O'Brien.
          Wisconsin Hockey: 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11 WE WANT MORE!
          ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Come to the Wisconsin Evangelical Lutheran Synod
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          Originally Posted by Wisko McBadgerton:
          "Baggot says Hughes and Rockwood are centering the top two lines...
          Timothy A --> Great hockey mind... Or Greatest hockey mind?!?"

          Comment


          • Apparently Murphy was injured and that's why Kotlowski was playing in her spot.
            Wisconsin Hockey: 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11 WE WANT MORE!
            ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            Come to the Wisconsin Evangelical Lutheran Synod
            ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            Originally Posted by Wisko McBadgerton:
            "Baggot says Hughes and Rockwood are centering the top two lines...
            Timothy A --> Great hockey mind... Or Greatest hockey mind?!?"

            Comment


            • Originally posted by robertearle View Post
              Thinking about the Pairwise and UW's position in it (of course), I think I have this right, and it's good news:

              Ohio State is going to be the #1. Wisconsin is currently #2, ahead of Clarkson, Colgate, and Minnesota. So, how far, if at all, might UW fall? If we assume they manage to not lose either game to St Thomas...

              ... the worst that could happen is a loss to Minnesota in the WCHA semis, and then wait for 'selection Sunday'. To fall as far as 4th, two of those three teams would have to pass them. But Clarkson and Colgate are both ECAC teams, so at least one of them is going to be handed one more loss in their tournament. The Pairwise comparisons with those teams will depend entirely on NPI. And on NPI, I'm pretty sure both cannot catch UW; one maybe, but not both, because of that pending loss.

              Can Minnesota catch them? Here's the 'news': Even if Minnesota beats UW in the WCHA semis, I don't think that will mean Minnesota can win the Pairwise comparison with UW.

              Right now, UW leads in NPI. Assume that a loss would mean Minnesota's NPI passes UW's (it would if Minn goes on to beat Ohio St, and probably would not if Minn loses to Ohio St in the finals). Wisconsin would still lead 3-2 on head-to-head; 3-2 lead head-to-head plus Minn "plus 1" for NPI means they're tied at 3-to-3, and the comparison gets decided on 'common opponents'. And - if I'm properly assigning the 'right' numbers for OT wins and ties - Wisconsin wins 'common opponent' percentages, even if Minnesota wins the WCHA tournament. Meaning Wisconsin wins the Pairwise comparison and stays ahead of Minnesota.

              It is more likely that not that Wisconsin has clinched #2, but I think a certainty that they clinched at least #3.

              We'll know more later when Grant's app goes live.
              A few minutes playing with Grant's Predictor, I can't even get Minnesota's NPI higher than Wisconsin's. But his app also confirms that Wisconsin wins 'common opponents', so UW definitely wins the Pairwise comparison, cannot be caught by Minnesota.

              Also, Clarkson can catch UW for #2; Colgate can also get there, but it's more unlikely. One way at least requires Maine to pull off a couple upsets.

              #2, or maybe #3 for Wisconsin. (That also means a Thursday game at LaBahn, with something like St Lawrence vs Penn State, or Cornell vs Mercyhurst, etc.)
              Last edited by robertearle; 02-25-2024, 07:50 PM.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by robertearle View Post

                A few minutes playing with Grant's Predictor, I can't even get Minnesota's NPI higher than Wisconsin's. But his app also confirms that Wisconsin wins 'common opponents', so UW definitely wins the Pairwise comparison, cannot be caught by Minnesota.

                Also, Clarkson can catch UW for #2; Colgate can also get there, but it's more unlikely. One way at least requires Maine to pull off a couple upsets.

                #2, or maybe #3 for Wisconsin. (That also means a Thursday game at LaBahn, with something like St Lawrence vs Penn State, or Cornell vs Mercyhurst, etc.)
                So we can definitely avoid playing Ohio State as a 4 / 5 winner. I mean we'll have to beat them anyhow to win it so I guess it doesn't really matter when.
                ​​​
                I would much enjoy watching the play in game to get to play Wisconsin at LaBahn. That would be fascinating. I appreciate you going through all the prognostications for us.
                ​​​​​​
                Wisconsin Hockey: 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11 WE WANT MORE!
                ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Come to the Wisconsin Evangelical Lutheran Synod
                ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Originally Posted by Wisko McBadgerton:
                "Baggot says Hughes and Rockwood are centering the top two lines...
                Timothy A --> Great hockey mind... Or Greatest hockey mind?!?"

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Timothy A View Post

                  So we can definitely avoid playing Ohio State as a 4 / 5 winner. I mean we'll have to beat them anyhow to win it so I guess it doesn't really matter when.
                  ​​​
                  I would much enjoy watching the play in game to get to play Wisconsin at LaBahn. That would be fascinating. I appreciate you going through all the prognostications for us.
                  ​​​​​​
                  Thinking about games at LaBahn, it's been since 2019 (!) since UW hosted an NCAA quarterfinal. 2020 got cancelled (COVID), 2021 was played entirely at Mercyhurst (COVID), 2022 we went to Northeastern and got beat, and last year went to Colgate and beat them (and LIU).

                  Comment


                  • That 4 pm game Friday is going to cut into the old work schedule, but I probably won't have to get there an hour before to get to sit where I prefer to.
                    Wisconsin Hockey: 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11 WE WANT MORE!
                    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    Come to the Wisconsin Evangelical Lutheran Synod
                    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    Originally Posted by Wisko McBadgerton:
                    "Baggot says Hughes and Rockwood are centering the top two lines...
                    Timothy A --> Great hockey mind... Or Greatest hockey mind?!?"

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Timothy A View Post
                      That 4 pm game Friday is going to cut into the old work schedule, but I probably won't have to get there an hour before to get to sit where I prefer to.
                      (As I'm sure you know) men's game in the KC, Michigan State, for the B1G championship. I have a ticket for Saturday; I hope the championship is still on the line.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by robertearle View Post
                        And - if I'm properly assigning the 'right' numbers for OT wins and ties ...
                        This is one of the continuing frustrations with the way the NCAA decides and/or documents their selection criteria. It usually takes Grant cornering a selection committee member to get any clarification.

                        There are certain situations that I doubt that the NCAA even considers when they adjust their processes. Say two teams that share a league meet four times during the season, and Team A wins one in regulation, while Team B wins the other three in OT. In terms of points, each gets 6 of a possible 12. Does the NCAA follow the rules established in NPI and see them as tied H2H, or do they have a dumbed-down way of looking at it, so that Team B leads 3-1? That makes a big difference for potentially flipping a comparison if they meet in a league tourney, so Team A would have a chance to take H2H, versus Team B already having it wrapped up.

                        Given that nothing like that comes into play for UW/UM, as UW needed OT in only one of its three wins, the Badgers are safe in a comparison with the Gophers.

                        "... And lose, and start again at your beginnings
                        And never breathe a word about your loss;" -- Rudyard Kipling

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by robertearle View Post
                          (As I'm sure you know) men's game in the KC, Michigan State, for the B1G championship. I have a ticket for Saturday; I hope the championship is still on the line.
                          I may do a double either Saturday or Friday. We shall see.
                          Wisconsin Hockey: 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11 WE WANT MORE!
                          ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          Come to the Wisconsin Evangelical Lutheran Synod
                          ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          Originally Posted by Wisko McBadgerton:
                          "Baggot says Hughes and Rockwood are centering the top two lines...
                          Timothy A --> Great hockey mind... Or Greatest hockey mind?!?"

                          Comment


                          • Anybody have info on Ava's health? Or I guess the rest of the lineup after the tough Ohio State for that matter!

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Windchill22 View Post
                              Anybody have info on Ava's health? Or I guess the rest of the lineup after the tough Ohio State for that matter!
                              You gave me a stroke, I thought of McNaughton first....LOL....No one asked at the presser. Maybe poster cellwillysnipe knows, sorry for butchering your handle. He/she has all the injury info.

                              How about those lines in the 2nd and 3rd period...some combo's we haven't seen. I'm not even sure if I can re-create what I saw out there on paper.
                              Wisconsin Hockey: 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11 WE WANT MORE!
                              ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              Come to the Wisconsin Evangelical Lutheran Synod
                              ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              Originally Posted by Wisko McBadgerton:
                              "Baggot says Hughes and Rockwood are centering the top two lines...
                              Timothy A --> Great hockey mind... Or Greatest hockey mind?!?"

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Timothy A View Post

                                You gave me a stroke, I thought of McNaughton first....LOL....No one asked at the presser. Maybe poster cellwillysnipe knows, sorry for butchering your handle. He/she has all the injury info.

                                How about those lines in the 2nd and 3rd period...some combo's we haven't seen. I'm not even sure if I can re-create what I saw out there on paper.
                                Oh man - my brain wasn't there at all - so I can see where the heart attack would come from!!! Sorry for the confusion!

                                Yeah - I was constantly trying to figure out the lines! I was thinking "was it a split line change, did someone get caught out? No - that's the line!" Fun to see though. Not sure if was the player chemistry on the line change (for lack of a better definition) or just a shake it up to jar the brains (like pulling a goalie to send a message to the team) but in any case it's a W against Ohio St. - and now we know we can beat them. But what does MJ do tomorrow?

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