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2023 NCAA DIII Championship Tournament

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  • #16
    Originally posted by PrezdeJohnson09 View Post
    Everyone done complaining about the NESCAC (deservedly) getting four teams into the NCAA Tournament?

    It’s almost like this Pairwise thing works or something…
    I mean the NESCAC is decisively awesome and the best conference in America. However, pairwise doesn't work with how little cross-region play we get. That's the issue. Colby/Middlebury over Cortland or Elmira was never the issue. It's Colby/Middlebury over Eau Claire/St. Norbert/Augsburg. We flat out do not have the data to make that a reasonable call. I think they're all really good teams.

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    • #17
      Any early thoughts for Saturday? Here are my early predictions:

      -Amherst over Colby 4-1

      Mules played Amherst tough by earning a split, including a 5-4 Mule victory and an Amherst win in OT, 3-2. I think Amherst is going to stay hot, and ride the momentum to a convincing win. Colby may be due for some regression to the mean after putting up 5 last night on just 27 shots. I think Stott shuts down Colby's stars.

      -Hamilton over Adrian 2-1 (OT)

      This is the toughest call for me. Both teams look dead even. I think I'll take the Continentals and their "battle-testedness" being the difference. Both goalies are outstanding and will stand on their head. However, I'll take Hamilton in OT on the road, setting up the NESCAC Championship rematch with the Mammoths.

      -Plattsburgh over Middlebury 2-1

      The rivalry gets another postseason iteration. Platty won in OT earlier this year in Vermont, and I think they'll be able to knock off the defending champs yet again. Plenty of star power in this matchup. The confidence and borderline cockiness that the Panther netminder Merageas plays with is intimidating for opponents. When she gets hot, she's near-impossible to beat. I think she'll hold the Cardinals down, but the stars of Plattsburgh will have the puck too much for Middlebury's liking and be able to generate a couple goals.

      -River Falls over Gustavus 3-0

      This prediction isn't so much about Gustavus as it is the Falcons. Just looking at the UWRF girls, they look like professionals in warmups. So much skill, speed, and size. Cranston just gets studs over there. GAC's work ethic is as good as anyone's, and they have plenty of skill themselves. Shameful they're meeting for a 4th time this early, but such is life. The 3 previous matchups were just about as close as they could be, with each team earning a shutout road victory, while the Falcons won a nailbiter with 5.5 seconds left in overtime on home ice to break what looked to be a tie. These teams are close, but the Falcons should be able to come out strong and get revenge given GAC's massive upset of them in Wisconsin last March.

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      • #18
        Originally posted by SHockey98 View Post

        I mean the NESCAC is decisively awesome and the best conference in America. However, pairwise doesn't work with how little cross-region play we get. That's the issue. Colby/Middlebury over Cortland or Elmira was never the issue. It's Colby/Middlebury over Eau Claire/St. Norbert/Augsburg. We flat out do not have the data to make that a reasonable call. I think they're all really good teams.
        I couldn't agree more with SHockey98. Middlebury has 26 bites at the apple and comes away with 16 wins. Three tries vs. Amherst and goes 0-3, also a loss to River Falls in November. Eau Claire with 22 wins and a 7-4 win over River Falls, then a 1-1 tie at River Falls. Not nearly enough data to make Pairwise the only determinant of admittance to this exclusive club.

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        • #19
          One would think that loss and tie to Connecticut College the last week of January might have done more damage to the Panthers' Pairwise ranking than it did. Looks like their best wins are 4-3 OT and a 3-2 regulation wins over Colby and one over Hamilton. Not sure the strength of schedule argument does much when you don't beat said strong teams.

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          • #20
            Originally posted by bodyup88 View Post
            One would think that loss and tie to Connecticut College the last week of January might have done more damage to the Panthers' Pairwise ranking than it did. Looks like their best wins are 4-3 OT and a 3-2 regulation wins over Colby and one over Hamilton. Not sure the strength of schedule argument does much when you don't beat said strong teams.
            100%. There HAS to be a hybrid method of selection. It's not feasible given how little the regions play each other. The West does not have the margin for error. Like I said, Elmira and Cortland have had their chances. I'm not saying Colby didn't deserve a bid over them (unless we're taking into consideration 21 regular season games). I know for a fact a couple SID's/AD's are not happy about this, and there could be a new pilot program upcoming.

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            • #21
              Originally posted by SHockey98 View Post

              100%. There HAS to be a hybrid method of selection. It's not feasible given how little the regions play each other. The West does not have the margin for error. Like I said, Elmira and Cortland have had their chances. I'm not saying Colby didn't deserve a bid over them (unless we're taking into consideration 21 regular season games). I know for a fact a couple SID's/AD's are not happy about this, and there could be a new pilot program upcoming.
              I don't have the time at this second to do the comparison..but I'd love to see what the old criteria comparisons would look like between Colby and Middlebury and those schools in the West that you mention that take into account SOS (Colby and Midd would win that easy with the OOC record of the NESCAC), common opponents, Winning % and record vs. NCAA ranked teams.

              A subjective process simply creates more confusion and chaos when it's completely unnecessary. At the end of the day, win your league. Otherwise accept whatever fate you've drawn up for yourselves.

              The Poster Formerly Known as Purple_and_Gold10©
              "The Prezidential Three - Elmira, Oswego, Norwich" © Joecct
              GO EAGLES!!! R.I.P. L.H. #4 In our hearts forever
              GO LAKERS!!!
              GO CADETS!!! R.I.P. Charlie Crosby '63
              "Reisweber trying to circle in front of the net, he does, HE SCORES! that's it! Oswego State has done it!! The Lakers take home the first NCAA title of any kind in school history. It's celebration time in Upstate New York!"
              Oswego State '09

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              • #22
                Predictions for this weekend:

                Colby at Amherst - Amherst 3-0. The Amherst goaltender is a wall, having 13 shutouts as a first year, including two in the NESCAC tournament. Amherst is just flying on offense as well.

                Hamilton at Adrian - Hamilton 3-1. Based on nothing more than fan bias. Adrian has always been a tough team to beat. But I know little about their style. This will, I think, come down to the Hamilton defense vs the Adrian offense and if the former can get enough opportunities to score.

                Middlebury at Plattsburgh - Plattsburg 2-1. The Cardinals have both speed and forechecking skill over Midd, It was what gave Midd such fits against Amherst, and their previous meetings. This is a huge rivalry and both team are going to be amped for it. But Plattsburgh almost always comes out on top.

                Rivers Falls vs Gustavus - Gustavus 5-3. From what I know both of these teams have aggressive, high scoring offensive minded teams. Otherwise this is just a guess.

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by PrezdeJohnson09 View Post

                  I don't have the time at this second to do the comparison..but I'd love to see what the old criteria comparisons would look like between Colby and Middlebury and those schools in the West that you mention that take into account SOS (Colby and Midd would win that easy with the OOC record of the NESCAC), common opponents, Winning % and record vs. NCAA ranked teams.

                  A subjective process simply creates more confusion and chaos when it's completely unnecessary. At the end of the day, win your league. Otherwise accept whatever fate you've drawn up for yourselves.
                  Or, finish fourth in your league and lose 7 games and get into the tournament. Either works.

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by bodyup88 View Post

                    Or, finish fourth in your league and lose 7 games and get into the tournament. Either works.
                    You really don’t know how this works. So stop embarrassing yourself.
                    Russell Jaslow
                    [Former] SUNYAC Correspondent
                    U.S. College Hockey Online

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                    • #25
                      Originally posted by Russell Jaslow View Post

                      You really don’t know how this works. So stop embarrassing yourself.
                      I wonder if it was sarcasm because I thought the exact same thing…
                      Steve
                      Penn State Class of '95
                      Plattsburgh State Class of '99

                      If corn oil is made from corn, and vegetable oil is made from vegetables, then what is baby oil made from?

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                      • #26
                        Originally posted by spwood View Post

                        I wonder if it was sarcasm because I thought the exact same thing…
                        In which case I’m an *ss.
                        Russell Jaslow
                        [Former] SUNYAC Correspondent
                        U.S. College Hockey Online

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by tjoneslo View Post
                          Predictions for this weekend:

                          Colby at Amherst - Amherst 3-0. The Amherst goaltender is a wall, having 13 shutouts as a first year, including two in the NESCAC tournament. Amherst is just flying on offense as well.

                          Hamilton at Adrian - Hamilton 3-1. Based on nothing more than fan bias. Adrian has always been a tough team to beat. But I know little about their style. This will, I think, come down to the Hamilton defense vs the Adrian offense and if the former can get enough opportunities to score.

                          Middlebury at Plattsburgh - Plattsburg 2-1. The Cardinals have both speed and forechecking skill over Midd, It was what gave Midd such fits against Amherst, and their previous meetings. This is a huge rivalry and both team are going to be amped for it. But Plattsburgh almost always comes out on top.

                          Rivers Falls vs Gustavus - Gustavus 5-3. From what I know both of these teams have aggressive, high scoring offensive minded teams. Otherwise this is just a guess.
                          ************************************************
                          Amherst goalie is a wall, but the team is so good defensively and allows the least amount shots per game. Their other goalie did have one shutout, so I think her total is 12. Agree the offense is in a good area right now.

                          Adrain will keep this close, but your point about the Hamilton defense is spot on for me as well. I watched a few of their games this year where they shut down the other side. They also have a leading scorer who can make a huge difference in their overall effort. If they can play a high tempo game, my guess is a one goal win maybe in OT.

                          Middlebury is very structured in their play and if they can keep Plattsburg under control with good game management planning, I think they will come out on top by a goal.

                          River Falls is another team that can at times shut down the other team's offense, and the goalie stops everything. Gustavus is a fast team that should get past this. I think it all comes down to which goalie has a better game, but I agree with you that Gustavas will come out ahead.

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                          • #28
                            Plattsburgh's third line creates an early goal on a loose puck. Schmelzer uses her speed to chase down the puck and it gets tapped around before Emma McLean taps in her 2nd career goal

                            1-0 Plattsburgh early in the 1st.

                            GAC also leading 1-0 early.
                            Last edited by Scott_TG; 03-11-2023, 02:09 PM.

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                            • #29
                              Vira slaps it home on the powerplay to tie it at 1 with 10 mins left in the first for Midd @ Plattsburgh

                              GAC up 2-0 with 5 mins to go in the first

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                              • #30
                                End of 1:

                                Colby 0 - Amherst 0
                                Hamilton 0 - Adrian 0
                                Middlebury 1 - Plattsburgh 1
                                UW-River Falls 1 - Gustavus Adolphus 2

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