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Div III Bracketology

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  • #16
    The January term at Middlebuy ended this weekend, and three of the seniors on the Women's team graduated. Loosing seniors is always a challenge, but three weeks from the end of the season can be particularly hard.

    As is typical with the NESCAC, this weekend was a set of surprise upsets. Amherst as a win and loss to Colby, Hamilton had a win and a tie at Bowdoin, Middlebury with a win and an overtime win against Wesleyan, and Conn had two wins against OOC opponents. This doesn't much adjust the NESCAC rankings.

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    • #17
      Will those graduating seniors not play the rest of the hockey season? Are they not allowed?

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      • #18
        This is my first time playing with the women's bracket but this is what makes sense to me:

        Pool A:
        CCC: Suffolk (24)
        MIAC: Gustavus (5)
        NCHA: St. Norbert (T-14)
        NEHC: Elmira (9)
        NESCAC: Amherst (1)
        NEWHL: Plattsburgh (2)
        UCHC: Utica (10)

        Pool B:
        UW-River Falls (3)

        Pool C:

        Adrian (4)
        Hamilton (6)
        Middlebury (7)

        First Round:

        St. Norbert @ Gustavus
        Utica @ Middlebury
        Suffolk @ Hamilton

        Quarterfinals:

        Utica/Middlebury @ Amherst
        Suffolk/Hamilton @ Plattsburgh
        St. Norbert/Gustavus @ UW-River Falls
        Elmira @ Adrian

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        • #19
          Originally posted by Pioneer247 View Post
          This is my first time playing with the women's bracket but this is what makes sense to me:
          This actually makes a lot of sense, good job. I am really looking forward to the SNC/Adrian series in a couple of weeks, that will give a better sense of how good SNC might be come the playoffs, by my math they are 1 tie or point from the 1 seed and hosting the NCHA playoffs. SNC gets to rest next weekend while Adrian has to travel to Aurora and then to SNC for the final weekend. Brutal couple weekends for Adrian.

          Correction to my math, SNC will need a win or two ties against Adrian to win the conference championship and the # 1 playoff seed for the conference playoffs. I assume if Adrian took 3 points against SNC they would win the conference and host. This is assuming Adrian wins both games next weekend.
          Last edited by 4and20; 02-05-2023, 11:19 PM.
          4 & 20 The All-American Sister's
          SNC 2008, 2011, 2012, 2014, & 2018 Mens DIII NCAA Champions & they have Women's Hockey

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          • #20
            I did a bracket that assumes Adrian as the NCHA winner, which is based on the belief that Adrian would be the NCHA leader right now if the number of NCHA games played were even.


            Field:
            Bid School PWR
            CCC Suffolk 23
            MIAC GAC 5
            NCHA Adrian 4
            NEHC Elmira 9
            NESCAC Amherst 1
            NEWHL Plattsburgh 2
            UCHC Utica 10
            Pool B UW-River Falls 3
            Pool C Hamilton 6
            Pool C Middlebury 7
            Pool C Colby 8

            Seed integrity is pretty bad but what I come up with does keep to no flights before the semis and no intra-conference 1st round, two of the things the manual says are to be avoided.

            1st Round:

            Suffolk at Middlebury
            Colby at Plattsburgh
            Utica at Hamilton

            QF:

            Suffolk/Midd at Amherst
            Elmira at Adrian

            Gustavus at River Falls
            Colby/Plattsburgh vs Utica/Hamilton

            Nazareth could do us all a favor and solve the Adrian issue by beating Utica...

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            • #21
              Wow, Plattsburgh all the way up to 2 after this weekend....

              Do you guys know if Pool B automatically go the top WIAC team in pairwise? Or is it the tournament champ? For example, I would imagine even if Eau Claire upset River Falls in their conference tourney, River Falls would still be the higher rated team. Would Eau Claire automatically get the Pool B in that situation?

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              • #22
                Originally posted by SHockey98 View Post
                Wow, Plattsburgh all the way up to 2 after this weekend....

                Do you guys know if Pool B automatically go the top WIAC team in pairwise? Or is it the tournament champ? For example, I would imagine even if Eau Claire upset River Falls in their conference tourney, River Falls would still be the higher rated team. Would Eau Claire automatically get the Pool B in that situation?
                Pool B is always done by PWR.
                Russell Jaslow
                [Former] SUNYAC Correspondent
                U.S. College Hockey Online

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                • #23
                  To expand on Russell's explanation, the Pool B will go to the school that is not eligible for Pool A bid that has the highest PWR Rank

                  Here are the Pool B eligible teams and their current PWR Rank:
                  School Conference PWR Rnk
                  Wisconsin - River Falls WIAC 3
                  Wisconsin - Eau Claire WIAC 12
                  Wisconsin - Stevens Point WIAC 31
                  Worcester State Independent 38
                  Wisconsin - Superior WIAC 47
                  Rivier Independent 61
                  Northland WIAC 63
                  Anna Maria Independent 71
                  Hilbert Independent 72
                  Based on the above and that there are only a couple of weeks left in the season I think River Falls is pretty much a lock for Pool B. Perhaps if River Falls lost all 3 remaining regular season games (including 2 to Eau Claire) and lost in the semifinals of the O'Brien Cup tourney (WIAC conference championship), it might be mathematically possible for Eau Claire to finish above River Falls in PWR but I doubt it.

                  If the WIAC finds one more member for women's hockey the Pool B berth becomes the official WIAC automatic berth rather than just the de facto one it is this season.

                  Right now we are slated to have the top 10 teams in PWR plus whoever wins the CCC conference championship.
                  Last edited by Scott_TG; 02-05-2023, 08:19 PM.

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                  • #24
                    Thanks guys,

                    That makes sense. I know there were more conferences in the past that didn't have the minimum number of teams, so the Pool B slot was a good idea. Now, it seems a little dated. It seems like it's essentially the WIAC autobid (not including conference tourney) at this point, given the strength of the independent programs. Hopefully they can find a 6th sooner rather than later.

                    Any rumors as to who they might target? I'm not sure if Stout would ever start a women's team, and I think it would be pretty hard to poach someone like St. Norbert or Concordia-WI. Possibly Finlandia? Not a strong add, but a sixth team nonetheless.

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                    • #25
                      I don't think SNC would do it. Concordia, Finlandia, or even the new MSOE women's program could be targeted to become associate members though they would probably have to convince them to move the men's team over with them.

                      If thinking about the WIAC it doesn't necessarily have to be Stout. LaCrosse, Oshkosh, Platteville, and Whitewater don't have any hockey and there's no requirement they start a program for both genders, just that they remain in Title IX compliance which could be addressed via other sports. LaCrosse and Stout both have ACHA women's clubs. That isn't necessarily an indicator of which schools might start a varsity team but it shows there's interest on campus.

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                      • #26
                        Originally posted by Scott_TG View Post
                        I did a bracket that assumes Adrian as the NCHA winner, which is based on the belief that Adrian would be the NCHA leader right now if the number of NCHA games played were even.
                        Could you explain how Adrian which is 5 points back could be the NCHA leader right now if they win their next two games? SNC has a conference tie and Adrian has a conference loss, and they have not played each other. Oh how I am sure everyone out there is so confident Adrian will kick SNC's butts in two weeks and you all will make sure I get crow shoved down my throat or Lutefisk.

                        4 & 20 The All-American Sister's
                        SNC 2008, 2011, 2012, 2014, & 2018 Mens DIII NCAA Champions & they have Women's Hockey

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                        • #27
                          Originally posted by 4and20 View Post

                          Could you explain how Adrian which is 5 points back could be the NCHA leader right now if they win their next two games? SNC has a conference tie and Adrian has a conference loss, and they have not played each other. Oh how I am sure everyone out there is so confident Adrian will kick SNC's butts in two weeks and you all will make sure I get crow shoved down my throat or Lutefisk.
                          Adrian has 4 games left, two each against the two opponents ahead of them in the standings, at a max value of 3 points each. Those opponents, SNC and Aurora, only have their two games against Adrian left. By most statistical categories Adrian is the better team on paper vs both so thus considered the favorite to win both series.

                          That said SNC has the lead in the standings and if they can beat Adrian they deserve the #1 seed.

                          As for eating crow if SNC loses out I don't see how anyone could say that given that would be an upset. My projection is based on history and statistics, not meant to personally attack you or any other fan of SNC, Aurora or any other poster.

                          Personally I would love to be the one eating crow if SNC and Aurora could sweep Adrian in the regular season and they or someond else eliminate them in the Slaats Cup tourney. Please don't mistake projecting Adrian's success with cheering them on. Adrian has horrible refs at home and their location combined with the travel restriction forces them and Elmira into the QF, often forcing better ranked teams into the first round. I would love for Adrian to be left out of the national picture altogether and maybe see the tournament seeded normally.

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                          • #28
                            Originally posted by Scott_TG View Post
                            Adrian has 4 games left, two each against the two opponents ahead of them in the standings, at a max value of 3 points each. Those opponents, SNC and Aurora, only have their two games against Adrian left. By most statistical categories Adrian is the better team on paper vs both so thus considered the favorite to win both series.

                            That said SNC has the lead in the standings and if they can beat Adrian they deserve the #1 seed.
                            My Bad, I was relying on USCHO Standing which appear to be incorrect as they are based on 2 points for a win rather than 3 as the NCHA web page show's. Either way SNC will need to win a least one of their remaining games at home against Adrian or get help from Aurora. If Adrian can beat Aurora and SNC on the road twice then they are very deserving of their accomplishments. Let the fun begin, looking forward to the next several weeks of watching some good hockey even if it is on a computer screen.

                            4 & 20 The All-American Sister's
                            SNC 2008, 2011, 2012, 2014, & 2018 Mens DIII NCAA Champions & they have Women's Hockey

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                            • #29
                              I learned the hard way about USCHO's standings discrepancy. It sucks because it takes longer but it is necessary to look at each conference's official page.

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                              • #30
                                Originally posted by Scott_TG View Post
                                I learned the hard way about USCHO's standings discrepancy. It sucks because it takes longer but it is necessary to look at each conference's official page.
                                And worse, every conference seemingly does something different. Then to confuse matters even worse, they sometimes do something different for the men vs. the women. Oh, the humanity!

                                RANT MODE: I am sick and tired of hockey thinking they are so special, having to handle overtime wins and losses differently than regulation results. No other sport does this. Even with those sports, like football, which have "weird" overtime rules. A win is a win. A loss is a loss. If you can't handle it, don't play the sport.

                                There, I'm done...
                                Russell Jaslow
                                [Former] SUNYAC Correspondent
                                U.S. College Hockey Online

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