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  • Originally posted by Offsides Guy View Post
    I think OSU shouldn’t have anything to worry about if they lose to UMD as long as WI wins it all. OSU crushes UMD in the SOS category with UMD having so few games vs MN & WI. That has to count a lot in tournament selection.
    That's one way to look at it. The other way to look at it would be that UMD finished second in the WCHA regular season (and while I think that it was a stupid method used to seed teams, it is the method that the league agreed to use), and if the Bulldogs win Saturday, they'll be second in the league in the tourney and 2-1 H2H versus OSU. Two of the 'Dogs losses are during 3-on-3 OT, which is only a smidge more telling than a S.O. decision as far as I can see. I know how weak UMD's schedule is, only playing four road games and none versus teams with winning records. Who knows if the committee even considers factors like that.

    If I'm in the Buckeyes' corner next weekend, "comfortable" isn't a feeling I'm going to have if the selection committee is considering my team with an 11-6 record and taking only two WCHA clubs. OSU needs to win on Saturday to ensure that it will advance if Wisconsin is the tourney champ. Not saying I'd take UMD over OSU, but that's a possibility, given these are unprecedented times.

    "... And lose, and start again at your beginnings
    And never breathe a word about your loss;" -- Rudyard Kipling

    Comment


    • Originally posted by ARM View Post
      if the selection committee is considering my team with an 11-6 record and taking only two WCHA clubs.
      What's the argument for only two WCHA teams? Even if you take two ECAC teams (and I can certainly see an argument against taking two from a conference that had only four teams playing). I guess maybe if there's an upset in CHA, so you take both Penn State and the tourney winner.

      With BC having lost today, if Duluth and Minnesota both have a good weekend, I can see four WCHA teams in more readily than I see two.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by robertearle View Post
        What's the argument for only two WCHA teams?
        Offsides Guy stated earlier that is what he had heard. If it's possible to get three in, then that would obviously change the conversation.

        I haven't heard what method is being used to select teams, so it's just another big unknown in this pandemic year. Until I see a link where the method is spelled out, it will be Northeastern, Wisconsin, and a bunch of hopeful teams that haven't clinched anything.

        "... And lose, and start again at your beginnings
        And never breathe a word about your loss;" -- Rudyard Kipling

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        • Originally posted by ARM View Post
          Offsides Guy stated earlier that is what he had heard. If it's possible to get three in, then that would obviously change the conversation.

          I haven't heard what method is being used to select teams, so it's just another big unknown in this pandemic year. Until I see a link where the method is spelled out, it will be Northeastern, Wisconsin, and a bunch of hopeful teams that haven't clinched anything.
          Yeah, I saw that comment, and just let it go by. But - no offense to him - you have more credibility in my mind, so I thought maybe you knew something more.

          Without looking at the past couple years, it seems to me at this point, pre-tournaments, that it has been "will ECAC get three or will WCHA get three?, and with ECAC certainly not getting three this year, I'll be shocked if WCHA doesn't get three. Who are the eight, if not?

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          • I don't know anything beyond Grant's column:
            https://www.bcinterruption.com/bosto...lege-bc-eagles

            And that basically says that the committee will have a lot of latitude, unlike the years where the PairWise hasn't allowed much room for creativity and the only drama was how to best save a flight by messing with bracket integrity. This year, we have no way of knowing if Penn State is a top-three team or something less. So who knows when it comes to selection, and definitely, seeding.
            "... And lose, and start again at your beginnings
            And never breathe a word about your loss;" -- Rudyard Kipling

            Comment


            • Originally posted by robertearle View Post

              Yeah, I saw that comment, and just let it go by. But - no offense to him - you have more credibility in my mind, so I thought maybe you knew something more.

              Without looking at the past couple years, it seems to me at this point, pre-tournaments, that it has been "will ECAC get three or will WCHA get three?, and with ECAC certainly not getting three this year, I'll be shocked if WCHA doesn't get three. Who are the eight, if not?
              No offense taken. As I had said, just a rumor I heard. And I don’t disagree that more than 2 WCHA teams certainly warrant making the National Tournament. Just hard for me to swallow if one of them is UMD over MN. That weak Dogs’ SOS is really bothersome to me.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Offsides Guy View Post

                No offense taken. As I had said, just a rumor I heard. And I don’t disagree that more than 2 WCHA teams certainly warrant making the National Tournament. Just hard for me to swallow if one of them is UMD over MN. That weak Dogs’ SOS is really bothersome to me.
                My guess is whichever has the better weekend next week gets the third slot.

                Yes, weaker schedule, but Duluth is the only team to beat Wisconsin in the head-to-head, as far as 'standings points' go. You get into one of those endless cycles: Wisconsin beat Ohio State, who beat Minnesota, who beat Duluth, who beat Wisconsin.

                It will be an interesting weekend, with way more suspense to the 'selection show'.

                Comment


                • UMD has some warts for sure, but it's hard to argue with how they are playing right now. They played a great series with WisconSIN and were very close to taking advantage of a weird season that potentially could have had them as regular season champs. I could be wrong but I think they match up better with OSU and WisconSIN than Minnesota does. Minnesota seems destined to flame out and not make the national tournamment. Minnesota seemingly has no answer for how OSU and Wisconsin attack their weaknesses. I don't see that changing. If there are 3 teams from the WCHA it could very well be the sinners, yuckeyes and dogs.
                  At the outset, we could hang with the dude...

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by FiveHoleFrenzy View Post
                    If there are 3 teams from the WCHA it could very well be the sinners, yuckeyes and dogs.
                    MN is #4 now, they are in. If UM beats UW and UMD beats OSU, then UM and UMD play a 1 goal game, do 4 wwcha teams get in? Yes.
                    Wisconsin Hockey: 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11 WE WANT MORE!
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                    • Originally posted by Timothy A View Post

                      MN is #4 now, they are in. If UM beats UW and UMD beats OSU, then UM and UMD play a 1 goal game, do 4 wwcha teams get in? Yes.
                      Doesn't Minnesota have to win the WCHA tournament to get into the national tournament? I personally don't see them doing that.
                      At the outset, we could hang with the dude...

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by FiveHoleFrenzy View Post

                        Doesn't Minnesota have to win the WCHA tournament to get into the national tournament? I personally don't see them doing that.
                        I don't think so. Certainly it is not 'necessary'.

                        Keeping in mind that because there has been so little inter-conference play, the rating systems 'break down' and the usual RPI and Pairwise (and KRACH) become less useful, nevertheless there are eight slots and four conferences. So go conference by conference, and see where you get:

                        If Penn State wins the CHA tournament and auto-bid, does CHA have a second team that deserves a slot? #13, #14 and #15 in the RPI? (More on RPI in a minute)

                        ECAC has only four teams playing, do they deserve a second team? Their RPIs say yes, but...

                        Hockey East's #2 team (for the moment) is already done, out of their tournament, is #8 in the RPI, and might get dropped to #9 this weekend (possibly by Duluth). Will they have a second team 'worthy' of a slot when their tournament has ended?

                        So, who gets the eight slots? Which conference(s) get a second team such that Minnesota or Duluth doesn't get in?

                        ---------------

                        About RPI (and not the 'adjusted numbers): As I said, ECAC has only four teams playing, but I realized/noticed earlier today that all four have RPIs above 0.5. Now, it's pretty straight forward math that when a 'subgroup' of teams play only one another, the individual teams RPIs must tend towards 0.5. Indeed, with WCHA teams having played no non-conference games at all, as a whole their RPIs must average out to 0.5 per team; the above 0.5 numbers that Wisconsin, Ohio State, Minnesota and Duluth show are entirely equaled out by the below 0.5 of St Cloud, Mankato and Bemidji. So how can ECAC teams all be above 0.5. (Minnesota fans will be reminded of Lake Webegon, where everyone is above average.)

                        I had not realized that collectively they had a bunch of games against LIU and Sacred Heart. And it is those games which are 'amplified' in the "opponents" and "opponents' opponents" winning percentages that lift them all above 0.5. Colgate benefits from Quinnipiac having beating LIU and Sacred Heart each three times, and Clarkson benefits from Colgate benefitting from Quinnipiac having beaten LUI and Sacred Heart. Etc Etc

                        Without 'common opponents', the Pairwise is driven all the more by RPI; They become essentially the same ranking. And with so little non-conference play, RPI for some teams is driven all the more by the very few non-conference games that were played. Clarkson is flat-out a .500 team. In a normal year, there is zero chance a .500 team is anywhere near the top 8 in RPI or Pairwise,

                        --------------

                        There may not be a 'good answer' to 'which eight teams?' this year. But WCHA getting three and even four teams may be as good an answer as any.
                        Last edited by robertearle; 03-01-2021, 07:33 PM.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by robertearle View Post

                          I don't think so. Certainly it is not 'necessary'.

                          Keeping in mind that because there has been so little inter-conference play, the rating systems 'break down' and the usual RPI and Pairwise (and KRACH) become less useful, nevertheless there are eight slots and four conferences. So go conference by conference, and see where you get:

                          If Penn State wins the CHA tournament and auto-bid, does CHA have a second team that deserves a slot? #13, #14 and #15 in the RPI? (More on RPI in a minute)

                          ECAC has only four teams playing, do they deserve a second team? Their RPIs say yes, but...

                          Hockey East's #2 team (for the moment) is already done, out of their tournament, is #8 in the RPI, and might get dropped to #9 this weekend (possibly by Duluth). Will they have a second team 'worthy' of a slot when their tournament has ended?

                          So, who gets the eight slots? Which conference(s) get a second team such that Minnesota or Duluth doesn't get in?

                          ---------------
                          Without 'common opponents', the Pairwise is driven all the more by RPI; They become essentially the same ranking. And with so little non-conference play, RPI for some teams is driven all the more by the very few non-conference games that were played. Clarkson is flat-out a .500 team. In a normal year, there is zero chance a .500 team is anywhere near the top 8 in RPI or Pairwise,

                          --------------

                          There may not be a 'good answer' to 'which eight teams?' this year. But WCHA getting three and even four teams may be as good an answer as any.
                          Do the the WCHA teams have to be concerned at all with any kind of East Coast or anti-WCHA bias when it comes to the selection process?

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Offsides Guy View Post

                            Do the the WCHA teams have to be concerned at all with any kind of East Coast or anti-WCHA bias when it comes to the selection process?
                            No idea. I can see why 'the committee' might be hesitant to name four WCHA teams, though.

                            But I feel like I should try that all more bluntly and (I hope) succinctly:

                            Clarkson has a better RPI than Minnesota and would win a Pairwise comparison over Minnesota because Quinnipiac beat LUI and Sacred Heart a bunch of times. Period, full stop.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by robertearle View Post
                              Clarkson has a better RPI than Minnesota and would win a Pairwise comparison over Minnesota because Quinnipiac beat LUI and Sacred Heart a bunch of times.
                              I think the other series that boosts ECAC teams is Colgate swept Syracuse to start the season. WCHA teams don't have any similar nonconference wins to boost their RPI.

                              I wonder if the committee will consider OT wins/losses at all. The WCHA treated those results that same as shootouts. Meanwhile, it seems that nationally, the 3-on-3 results are treated the same as play happening with teams five on five. I detest the lack of foresight that the rule-makers in college hockey put into these changes. The players deserve more attention to the task than those in power give to their decisions.

                              "... And lose, and start again at your beginnings
                              And never breathe a word about your loss;" -- Rudyard Kipling

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by ARM View Post
                                I think the other series that boosts ECAC teams is Colgate swept Syracuse to start the season. WCHA teams don't have any similar nonconference wins to boost their RPI.
                                Of course. And that is, I think, the only "legitimate" non-conference series anybody played this year (with apologies to LIU and Sacred Heart).

                                But the eight wins over LUI and Sacred Heart - two by Clarkson and six by Quinnipiac - are going to have a larger effect than that series. Quinnipiac is a 10-5 team, but take out the LUI/Sacred Heart games and they are 4-5. That is, they contribute to or boost the others' RPIs as a .667 team; at .444, they would be a drag on the others' RPIs. After last night, two of the four teams are below .500, yet all four have RPIs above 0.5. That is the exaggerated, amplified effect of 8-0 vs LUI and Sacred Heart as opposed to no similar 'boost' for any other teams.

                                I'm not 'blaming' anyone; it was perfectly understandable that teams were scrambling to find games and opponents. But it is certainly a factor if one is using RPI to decide who gets into the tournament, The ECAC is Colgate and three teams under .500 (other than LUI/Sacred Heart). How many slots should they get?

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